The relevant department within NOAA is the space weather prediction center, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov http://www.swpc.noaa.gov (beta site: http://origin-www.swpc

The relevant department within NOAA is the space weather prediction center, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov http://www.swpc.noaa.gov (beta site: http://origin-www.swpc.noaa.gov http://origin-www.swpc.noaa.gov). I toured their facilities in Boulder, CO a few years ago (I develop a satellite data product, http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11207-014-0529-3 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11207-014-0529-3, that is used in forecasting). The forecasting is done partly with numerical models, partly with observational data, and partly with old school intuition and experience. It partly involves a small group of grizzled experts sitting in front of a bunch of monitors displaying images and time series. They are trying to automate it as much as possible and bring in new data sources, especially near real time data sources, from NASA and NOAA satellites. It's too much to go into in the scope of a comment, but suffice it to say that, with as many photons as the Sun puts out, you can gather a lot of information about the entire 3D solar atmosphere and magnetic environment. One day, these measurements would feed a forward model of the same type used in terrestrial weather prediction.