A way to estimate what jacquesm is referring to might be to keep a record of which participants were marginal applicants and which were clearly in. Since you ha

A way to estimate what jacquesm is referring to might be to keep a record of which participants were marginal applicants and which were clearly in. Since you have limited places the in-out divide should be arbitrary. You can just measure only those on the 'in' side of it. *If you numbered the top applications, you might be able to tease out some interesting conclusions about your ability to tell things in advance.