4 ms·

This article is based on the flawed assumption that where the rocket explodes is irrelevant. His criteria for success is frontal impact which the author claims

This article is based on the flawed assumption that where the rocket explodes is irrelevant. His criteria for success is frontal impact which the author claims is the only way to destroy this midair. Regardless of this, if the impact alters the trajectory to bring down the rocket in a less populated area, fewer people die. The author has been a vocal critic of missile defense systems for decades. While that doesn't negate his arguments, it suggests a potential motivation for his artificial definition of success. Edit: As the comment below points out, the rocket's trajectory could be changed so as to increase casualties. While that's true, it won't do so on average for several reasons. A rocket is only targeted if the system believes it has a high probability of striking a populated area. Since the expected losses are high, average will be better. In fact, average should be much better because the distribution of population density is so skewed. A small percentage of land is in dense regions. In this particular case, there's the added advantage that the most populous cities are relatively far away from Gaza so early impact is better.

sjtrny 12y ago
> alters the trajectory to bring down the rocket in a less populated area, fewer people die It might also cause more deaths.
- erikb 12y ago
  It might but it is unlikely, considering that a rocket is aimed to be most efficient. Deviating it from it's course should be enough to decrease the effect. An exception to this might be that the rocket aims a city of thousands, who get sheltered successfully, which means the rocket would kill about zero people. When the rocket now gets deviated it might hit a target with hundred people who didn't get sheltered. Therefore the result for the population might be worse. My feeling (and I am definitely not an expert) is that this is comparatively unlikely, though.
  - jdotjdot 12y ago
    You also may be giving too much credit to Hamas and Islamic Jihad's ability to aim rockets at the intended targets. Plenty of the time they hit the middle of nowhere, or they've actually even hit Palestinian-dominated areas (Hebron and Bethlehem) [1][2] In many situations, it makes far more sense to save the Iron Dome counter-missles. [1]: http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=712463 http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=712463 [2]: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4542242,00.html http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4542242,00.html
  - JoiDegn 12y ago
    I dont think that the rockets are aimed to be most efficient but you could make the same argument by saying that the rockets are only intercepted if the iron dome system thinks they will hit a densely populated area.
bjourne 12y ago
The missiles are unguided which means they weren't very accurate to begin with. The militants fills them up with fuel and points them in an angle which they believe will hit an Israeli city centre. Most of the rockets aren't SCUD missiles or anything close to that. Here is a good picture of breakdown of Hamas' rocket types: http://www.airforceworld.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/121.jpg http://www.airforceworld.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11... Note that most rocket attacks are using Qassam rockets and targetted towards Sderot which is only about a few hundred meters from the Gaza Strip and within viewing distance of it: http://goo.gl/maps/Vkbrd http://goo.gl/maps/Vkbrd I would guess that missiles against Sderot flies at a low altitude and has a too short air time for any system to intercept them. Btw if you do an image search on the Palestinian rockets, you'll only find pictures of badass rockets like this one: http://jssnews.com/content/assets/2012/12/qassam-rocket-power.jpg http://jssnews.com/content/assets/2012/12/qassam-rocket-powe... They like to pose with their biggest ones to seem dangerous and Israel also likes to show them because it makes the threat appear much bigger than it is. E.g Sderot was hit with 5000 Qassam rockets leading to 10 casualties. It's not only because Israel's defense is good, the rockets aren't that good to begin with.

sjtrny 12y ago

> alters the trajectory to bring down the rocket in a less populated area, fewer people die It might also cause more deaths.

erikb 12y ago
It might but it is unlikely, considering that a rocket is aimed to be most efficient. Deviating it from it's course should be enough to decrease the effect. An exception to this might be that the rocket aims a city of thousands, who get sheltered successfully, which means the rocket would kill about zero people. When the rocket now gets deviated it might hit a target with hundred people who didn't get sheltered. Therefore the result for the population might be worse. My feeling (and I am definitely not an expert) is that this is comparatively unlikely, though.
- jdotjdot 12y ago
  You also may be giving too much credit to Hamas and Islamic Jihad's ability to aim rockets at the intended targets. Plenty of the time they hit the middle of nowhere, or they've actually even hit Palestinian-dominated areas (Hebron and Bethlehem) [1][2] In many situations, it makes far more sense to save the Iron Dome counter-missles. [1]: http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=712463 http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=712463 [2]: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4542242,00.html http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4542242,00.html
- JoiDegn 12y ago
  I dont think that the rockets are aimed to be most efficient but you could make the same argument by saying that the rockets are only intercepted if the iron dome system thinks they will hit a densely populated area.

bjourne 12y ago

The missiles are unguided which means they weren't very accurate to begin with. The militants fills them up with fuel and points them in an angle which they believe will hit an Israeli city centre. Most of the rockets aren't SCUD missiles or anything close to that. Here is a good picture of breakdown of Hamas' rocket types: http://www.airforceworld.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/121.jpg http://www.airforceworld.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11... Note that most rocket attacks are using Qassam rockets and targetted towards Sderot which is only about a few hundred meters from the Gaza Strip and within viewing distance of it: http://goo.gl/maps/Vkbrd http://goo.gl/maps/Vkbrd I would guess that missiles against Sderot flies at a low altitude and has a too short air time for any system to intercept them. Btw if you do an image search on the Palestinian rockets, you'll only find pictures of badass rockets like this one: http://jssnews.com/content/assets/2012/12/qassam-rocket-power.jpg http://jssnews.com/content/assets/2012/12/qassam-rocket-powe... They like to pose with their biggest ones to seem dangerous and Israel also likes to show them because it makes the threat appear much bigger than it is. E.g Sderot was hit with 5000 Qassam rockets leading to 10 casualties. It's not only because Israel's defense is good, the rockets aren't that good to begin with.