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Is this were we start talking about "basic income" again? Where the few that work are taxed almost all of their income to pay for the rest that isn't?

dragonwriter 12y ago
> Where the few that work are taxed almost all of their income to pay for the rest that isn't? Basic income is more about charging rents on the commons, and in the "jobless future" those rents are mainly in the form of taxes on capital ownership than on "the few who work". (Pretty much reversing the present status quo, where taxes fall heavier on those who work than those who hold capital.)
otoburb 12y ago
The article's title is a bit misleading, since the author brings up (although then argues against) Kurzweil's idea that there may be jobs created that we don't yet know about to fill the void left by current jobs automated out of existence. Your point remains though -- basic income will raise its head more often whenever the specter of automation is invoked.
johnward 12y ago
What are the alternatives? I still believe at a point we won't need very much human labor. So what do we do with all of those people that don't/can't work? Others have mentioned that the economy will just create new, even more mindless, tasks for us to be paid for. I don't believe that because there is no incentive for companies to employ people for jobs machines can do cheaper.
- wyager 12y ago
  We won't need human labor because labor will be abundant. Anyone can have access to production technology. You don't need to steal to make that happen.
  - gress 12y ago
    How can 'anyone have access to production technology' (which incidentally includes the education necessary to utilize it), if they have no income?
    - wyager 12y ago
      Some charitable rich guy will give away a cheap nano-factory, and then that guy uses the nano-factory to make more nano-factories, gives those away, etc. Education is basically already free, and free education is on the way to being as good as paid education. Information reproduction costs are near zero. You are stuck in the pre-free-labor mindset.
      - gress 12y ago
        When does this magical tipping point arrive?
- JD557 12y ago
  I believe that the new jobs that will appear will probably be related to what now one might see as a luxury service. For example, there might be an increase in housemaids. It's a fairly simple job, although some tasks might be too hard for a machine to do (eg. "Please feed the dog and make sure that it eats its pill"). Also, assuming that those with jobs would have a smaller work week, then there might be a rise in tourism and entertainment industries (people have got to do something in their free time). I'm not really sure what new jobs might appear in this area though. Of course, this is assuming that we don't end in a dystopian future with 80% of the population unemployed, homeless and begging on the streets. I'm expecting that suply and demand will force these new jobs to appear and everything will work out in the end.
lukifer 12y ago
A few counter-points to your framing: - As more work becomes automated, it is more likely the owners of productive capital who would bear the brunt of the tax burden, not the minority of full-time laborers. - Many valid forms of productive work do not necessarily pay a salary (raising children being the most obvious example, but also community service, open source projects, or rolling the dice on a startup). These still create value for society in ways that our current economy measures poorly. - In a basic income environment, there is no reason for a minimum wage to exist. This would open the doors to many jobs that would otherwise be cost-prohibitive, whether people do it for the extra income, or for the other intangibles of employment.
- paulhauggis 12y ago
  Why would I want to work, if I am just paid to do nothing? Minimum wage exists now and is raised every couple of years. You don't think the same thing will happen with basic income? If it ever happens, I can see people eventually fighting for more, because it can't support a family of 4. On top of this, it just creates a culture of dependence, which politicians love..because why would you vote against your own free handouts?
  - cesarbs 12y ago
    > Why would I want to work, if I am just paid to do nothing? Try not working. Boredom is unbearable. Most people would do some kind of work even if they have enough money to spend the rest of their lives doing nothing.
    - will_work4tears 12y ago
      I think you underestimate the number of consumers and how little many people need mental stimulation. In today's world, it's easy to stay occupied with nothing more than the content on a typical cable subscription. I'm not one such person, even though I'm much more of a consumer than a producer (I read 4-5 books a month, watch probably 15-20 hours of TV a month and 2-3 movies a month), but I know people that watch 4-5 hours a night! It doesn't even have to be good content. Instead of going "I've seen this movie/show, or it's not very good," turning it off and doing something productive, they watch the lest boring thing on, even if it's a movie they've seen 3 times, and it's halfway over. It boggles my mind.

dragonwriter 12y ago

> Where the few that work are taxed almost all of their income to pay for the rest that isn't? Basic income is more about charging rents on the commons, and in the "jobless future" those rents are mainly in the form of taxes on capital ownership than on "the few who work". (Pretty much reversing the present status quo, where taxes fall heavier on those who work than those who hold capital.)

otoburb 12y ago

The article's title is a bit misleading, since the author brings up (although then argues against) Kurzweil's idea that there may be jobs created that we don't yet know about to fill the void left by current jobs automated out of existence. Your point remains though -- basic income will raise its head more often whenever the specter of automation is invoked.

johnward 12y ago

What are the alternatives? I still believe at a point we won't need very much human labor. So what do we do with all of those people that don't/can't work? Others have mentioned that the economy will just create new, even more mindless, tasks for us to be paid for. I don't believe that because there is no incentive for companies to employ people for jobs machines can do cheaper.

wyager 12y ago
We won't need human labor because labor will be abundant. Anyone can have access to production technology. You don't need to steal to make that happen.
- gress 12y ago
  How can 'anyone have access to production technology' (which incidentally includes the education necessary to utilize it), if they have no income?
  - wyager 12y ago
    Some charitable rich guy will give away a cheap nano-factory, and then that guy uses the nano-factory to make more nano-factories, gives those away, etc. Education is basically already free, and free education is on the way to being as good as paid education. Information reproduction costs are near zero. You are stuck in the pre-free-labor mindset.
    - gress 12y ago
      When does this magical tipping point arrive?
JD557 12y ago
I believe that the new jobs that will appear will probably be related to what now one might see as a luxury service. For example, there might be an increase in housemaids. It's a fairly simple job, although some tasks might be too hard for a machine to do (eg. "Please feed the dog and make sure that it eats its pill"). Also, assuming that those with jobs would have a smaller work week, then there might be a rise in tourism and entertainment industries (people have got to do something in their free time). I'm not really sure what new jobs might appear in this area though. Of course, this is assuming that we don't end in a dystopian future with 80% of the population unemployed, homeless and begging on the streets. I'm expecting that suply and demand will force these new jobs to appear and everything will work out in the end.

lukifer 12y ago

A few counter-points to your framing: - As more work becomes automated, it is more likely the owners of productive capital who would bear the brunt of the tax burden, not the minority of full-time laborers. - Many valid forms of productive work do not necessarily pay a salary (raising children being the most obvious example, but also community service, open source projects, or rolling the dice on a startup). These still create value for society in ways that our current economy measures poorly. - In a basic income environment, there is no reason for a minimum wage to exist. This would open the doors to many jobs that would otherwise be cost-prohibitive, whether people do it for the extra income, or for the other intangibles of employment.

paulhauggis 12y ago
Why would I want to work, if I am just paid to do nothing? Minimum wage exists now and is raised every couple of years. You don't think the same thing will happen with basic income? If it ever happens, I can see people eventually fighting for more, because it can't support a family of 4. On top of this, it just creates a culture of dependence, which politicians love..because why would you vote against your own free handouts?
- cesarbs 12y ago
  > Why would I want to work, if I am just paid to do nothing? Try not working. Boredom is unbearable. Most people would do some kind of work even if they have enough money to spend the rest of their lives doing nothing.
  - will_work4tears 12y ago
    I think you underestimate the number of consumers and how little many people need mental stimulation. In today's world, it's easy to stay occupied with nothing more than the content on a typical cable subscription. I'm not one such person, even though I'm much more of a consumer than a producer (I read 4-5 books a month, watch probably 15-20 hours of TV a month and 2-3 movies a month), but I know people that watch 4-5 hours a night! It doesn't even have to be good content. Instead of going "I've seen this movie/show, or it's not very good," turning it off and doing something productive, they watch the lest boring thing on, even if it's a movie they've seen 3 times, and it's halfway over. It boggles my mind.