5 ms·

I studied Civil Engineering in University. There is no way that that city disappears. The economic incentives are too strong to pipe water in. 3km up some moun

I studied Civil Engineering in University. There is no way that that city disappears. The economic incentives are too strong to pipe water in. 3km up some mountains is nothing. Humanity has built pipelines a thousand of kilometres long and over or through much taller mountains. The city might be corrupt as hell, but when there is truly a water shortage (right now, if they are using it for crops, there isn't in the economic sense) some rich guy is just going to bribe everyone in the way and build that pipeline then charge everyone in the city a dollar a cubic meter or something. Certainly cheaper than rebuilding a stone city.

idlewords 12y ago
We know what a water crisis in Sana'a will look like because the city already runs low on water every time there is a shortage of fuel: http://mideastafrica.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/08/30/yemens_water_woes http://mideastafrica.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/08/30/yeme... It doesn't matter what technology you use to bring in water. When the cost gets high enough, people are going to leave the city, and the poorest will have to leave first.
- 3pt14159 12y ago
  What is cheaper, building a city or building a pipe? I find it hard to believe that the local economy has collapsed to the point where they can't afford a pipe to a desalination plant.
  - idlewords 12y ago
    That's one of the easiest things there is to believe. You need to work on your believing.
    - msandford 12y ago
      You might be right that the whole thing will fall apart. But if this place is indeed the equivalent to Manhattan I can understand the disbelief. Compared to the trillions tied up in real estate the cost of a pipeline to NYC would be trivial. Yeah it might cost $50b (probably much, much less but lets go crazy) but with at least 10mm people around to receive the water it's $5k per person amortized over a decade it comes out to $50/mo/person I realize that the economics in Sana'a are probably hugely different than here in the US. But if people earn less, labor is cheaper too, etc. The difficulty here isn't that given the facts it could happen. It's that getting to the point where you have all the facts has turned all the assumptions that you normally take for granted completely upside down. Speaking as an engineer I can understand the difficulty.
      - dfryer 12y ago
        One of the big problems right now is that they have a very long oil pipeline, and people keep blowing it up. It's hard to get political stability when the resources are so constrained, and hard to deal with the resource problems when there's so much political instability.
      - rmc 12y ago
        Sure, manual labour is cheap. But if you want to buy computers, electric equipment or high quality machines then you have to buy the same stuff that us rich westerns buy. I. E. You're paying western prices.
        idlewords 12y ago
        Do you people realize you don't need to have this debate from first principles? There's a LOT of interesting (and depressing) cost analysis on providing Sana'a with water vs. trying to relocate. Not everything has to be a Fermi thought experiment.
        msandford 12y ago
        The point I was trying to make is that a civil engineer from the US might take a lot of factors for granted. And given those factors it would completely make sense to build a pipeline. But it sounds like those factors don't apply in Sana'a. It's not the OPs inability to believe that's the problem. Show him all of his flawed assumption and he'd readily change his mind (I would hope anyhow). But how do you disabuse him of those things which he takes for granted here in the US? That's a difficult process.
      - Someone 12y ago
        The old town is the equivalent of Manhattan, moved to the Middle Ages (or earlier). I don't know the new part of the city, but it probably is concrete and tents/shanty towns, like all large cities in poorer countries. http://data.un.org/CountryProfile.aspx?crName=Yemen http://data.un.org/CountryProfile.aspx?crName=Yemen gives a gross income per capita for Yemen of around $1300. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Yemen http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Yemen has a more optimistic $2200. Sana'a may be richer, but I guess the poor will be significantly below that. I don't find it strange that they will not be able to pay for the infrastructure and the additional costs of desalination and of pumping the water to the city (over 2 km up) Also, looking at http://files.transparency.org/content/download/700/3007/file/2013_CPIBrochure_EN.pdf http://files.transparency.org/content/download/700/3007/file..., Yemen is perceived to be extremely corrupt. That means that its population may not trust their government with that amount of money, even if they could afford to pay it.
  - rmc 12y ago
    We're talking really poor people here. They just build a few shacks out of corrugated steel. Shanty towns are cheap to "build".
- prawn 12y ago
  I would've thought that the poorest would be in the weakest position to move - no means to pay, fewer opportunities to hear of alternatives, little contact with family who might be elsewhere, etc.
deleted 12y ago
[deleted]

idlewords 12y ago

We know what a water crisis in Sana'a will look like because the city already runs low on water every time there is a shortage of fuel: http://mideastafrica.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/08/30/yemens_water_woes http://mideastafrica.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/08/30/yeme... It doesn't matter what technology you use to bring in water. When the cost gets high enough, people are going to leave the city, and the poorest will have to leave first.

3pt14159 12y ago
What is cheaper, building a city or building a pipe? I find it hard to believe that the local economy has collapsed to the point where they can't afford a pipe to a desalination plant.
- idlewords 12y ago
  That's one of the easiest things there is to believe. You need to work on your believing.
  - msandford 12y ago
    You might be right that the whole thing will fall apart. But if this place is indeed the equivalent to Manhattan I can understand the disbelief. Compared to the trillions tied up in real estate the cost of a pipeline to NYC would be trivial. Yeah it might cost $50b (probably much, much less but lets go crazy) but with at least 10mm people around to receive the water it's $5k per person amortized over a decade it comes out to $50/mo/person I realize that the economics in Sana'a are probably hugely different than here in the US. But if people earn less, labor is cheaper too, etc. The difficulty here isn't that given the facts it could happen. It's that getting to the point where you have all the facts has turned all the assumptions that you normally take for granted completely upside down. Speaking as an engineer I can understand the difficulty.
    - dfryer 12y ago
      One of the big problems right now is that they have a very long oil pipeline, and people keep blowing it up. It's hard to get political stability when the resources are so constrained, and hard to deal with the resource problems when there's so much political instability.
    - rmc 12y ago
      Sure, manual labour is cheap. But if you want to buy computers, electric equipment or high quality machines then you have to buy the same stuff that us rich westerns buy. I. E. You're paying western prices.
      - idlewords 12y ago
        Do you people realize you don't need to have this debate from first principles? There's a LOT of interesting (and depressing) cost analysis on providing Sana'a with water vs. trying to relocate. Not everything has to be a Fermi thought experiment.
        msandford 12y ago
        The point I was trying to make is that a civil engineer from the US might take a lot of factors for granted. And given those factors it would completely make sense to build a pipeline. But it sounds like those factors don't apply in Sana'a. It's not the OPs inability to believe that's the problem. Show him all of his flawed assumption and he'd readily change his mind (I would hope anyhow). But how do you disabuse him of those things which he takes for granted here in the US? That's a difficult process.
    - Someone 12y ago
      The old town is the equivalent of Manhattan, moved to the Middle Ages (or earlier). I don't know the new part of the city, but it probably is concrete and tents/shanty towns, like all large cities in poorer countries. http://data.un.org/CountryProfile.aspx?crName=Yemen http://data.un.org/CountryProfile.aspx?crName=Yemen gives a gross income per capita for Yemen of around $1300. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Yemen http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Yemen has a more optimistic $2200. Sana'a may be richer, but I guess the poor will be significantly below that. I don't find it strange that they will not be able to pay for the infrastructure and the additional costs of desalination and of pumping the water to the city (over 2 km up) Also, looking at http://files.transparency.org/content/download/700/3007/file/2013_CPIBrochure_EN.pdf http://files.transparency.org/content/download/700/3007/file..., Yemen is perceived to be extremely corrupt. That means that its population may not trust their government with that amount of money, even if they could afford to pay it.
- rmc 12y ago
  We're talking really poor people here. They just build a few shacks out of corrugated steel. Shanty towns are cheap to "build".
prawn 12y ago
I would've thought that the poorest would be in the weakest position to move - no means to pay, fewer opportunities to hear of alternatives, little contact with family who might be elsewhere, etc.

deleted 12y ago

[deleted]