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If you want to get an objective value shouldn't you remove the outliers from the data? >So what? So what is not that they took them down because sales slumped

If you want to get an objective value shouldn't you remove the outliers from the data? >So what? So what is not that they took them down because sales slumped they took them down because they were using them to justify the types of numbers that you quote immediately following that. >BitPay processed $5k/day in May 2012, $18k/day in Sep 2012, $160k/day in March 2013, $300k/day average through 2013, and now $1.0M/day. These numbers. It's easy for them to pick and choose spikes in the data and report that. > It does not matter if they are doing $500k/day or $1M/day or $2M/day Then why do you keep going on about them doing $1m/day if you're not convinced yourself? >Growth is here, which is why they got bit VC funding. Definitely. In merchant adoption. VC funding could just as easily be a speculative bet that that merchant adoption will eventually convert to sales not that it already has. Beenz and Flooz got VC as well remember(the first one almost as much as all bitcoin vc so far). Anyhow. We're circling around around to the same points and using the data to suit our own needs and arguing over a figure that doesn't really mean anything(number of transactions) since it can easily be inflated and because we can both use it to show our own views. At least we're not discussing my wallet accounts or coinbase accounts. I'll ask again. Do you know many merchants who are seeing strong and consistent sales in bitcoins? What are they? Do they specialize in bitcoin related products?

mrb 12y ago
The growth can be seen even if you remove outlier months (especially the bubble months Mar-May 2013.) Even if you assume BitPay is lying by reporting peak days, it would still likely imply growth: higher peaks likely correlate with higher average volume. When I say it does not matter whether today they are at 500k or 1M or 2M, I mean it does not matter because they were at 160k in March 2013, so any number above that demonstrates a growth. CheapAir.com and Overstock recently said they see consistent sales: http://www.coindesk.com/cheapair-tops-1-5-million-in-total-bitcoin-sales/ http://www.coindesk.com/cheapair-tops-1-5-million-in-total-b... Also Amagi Metals has always reported very consistent and growing Bitcoin sales. These are a few that come to mind right now.
- sanswork 12y ago
  CheapAir.com is releasing their first figures so there is no way to say if they are consistent growing or shrinking other than him saying expedia hasn't lead to shrinking sales. Overstock has definitely not said they have seen consistent sales. Their sales have been shrinking since they started. Jan 10 - 130K[1] Jan 11-29 - $26K/day average [1] (600,000-130,000)/18 Next 36 days to March 4th they do $400K [2] - $11K/day average Next 83 days to May 27th they do $600K [3] - $7200/day average ----- [1] http://onbitcoin.com/2014/01/31/bitcoin-executives-testify-in-new-york-to-persuade-regulators-coinbase-circle-overstock/ http://onbitcoin.com/2014/01/31/bitcoin-executives-testify-i... [2] http://www.coindesk.com/overstock-million-bitcoin-sales-future-projections/ http://www.coindesk.com/overstock-million-bitcoin-sales-futu... [3] http://www.coindesk.com/overstock-ceo-patrick-byrne-1-6m-bitcoin-sales/ http://www.coindesk.com/overstock-ceo-patrick-byrne-1-6m-bit... Amagi Metals reported very strong growth up last year. Literally reporting every milestone they hit($50K, $175k, $220k, $750k) then in April of last year they just stopped. Then a year later after someone else reports selling $10m worth of stuff they suddenly appear again saying "Oh ya we passed $10m already". Please keep coming up with them though. It would be good to see some winners. The only one I've seen so far is a bar in Florida that hosts weekly bitcoin meetups.
  - mrb 12y ago
    For Overstock you are looking at a very short time period (5 months). Similarly, Google's revenue declined over a 6-month period from $16.9B in 2013Q4 to $15.4B in 2014Q1, so by your logic Google's revenue is shrinking too(!) In reality sales are highly cyclical: you need to look at least at the year level to measure a trend. This is why I keep pointing you to payment processors BitPay and Coinbase, as they have existed for at least 1.5 years (and they publish numbers despite being private companies). Now that the first public companies are starting to accept Bitcoin (Expedia, Dell, Dish Network, Overstock), it is going to give us more data on Bitcoin's growth as they release public financial reports.
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mrb 12y ago

The growth can be seen even if you remove outlier months (especially the bubble months Mar-May 2013.) Even if you assume BitPay is lying by reporting peak days, it would still likely imply growth: higher peaks likely correlate with higher average volume. When I say it does not matter whether today they are at 500k or 1M or 2M, I mean it does not matter because they were at 160k in March 2013, so any number above that demonstrates a growth. CheapAir.com and Overstock recently said they see consistent sales: http://www.coindesk.com/cheapair-tops-1-5-million-in-total-bitcoin-sales/ http://www.coindesk.com/cheapair-tops-1-5-million-in-total-b... Also Amagi Metals has always reported very consistent and growing Bitcoin sales. These are a few that come to mind right now.

sanswork 12y ago
CheapAir.com is releasing their first figures so there is no way to say if they are consistent growing or shrinking other than him saying expedia hasn't lead to shrinking sales. Overstock has definitely not said they have seen consistent sales. Their sales have been shrinking since they started. Jan 10 - 130K[1] Jan 11-29 - $26K/day average [1] (600,000-130,000)/18 Next 36 days to March 4th they do $400K [2] - $11K/day average Next 83 days to May 27th they do $600K [3] - $7200/day average ----- [1] http://onbitcoin.com/2014/01/31/bitcoin-executives-testify-in-new-york-to-persuade-regulators-coinbase-circle-overstock/ http://onbitcoin.com/2014/01/31/bitcoin-executives-testify-i... [2] http://www.coindesk.com/overstock-million-bitcoin-sales-future-projections/ http://www.coindesk.com/overstock-million-bitcoin-sales-futu... [3] http://www.coindesk.com/overstock-ceo-patrick-byrne-1-6m-bitcoin-sales/ http://www.coindesk.com/overstock-ceo-patrick-byrne-1-6m-bit... Amagi Metals reported very strong growth up last year. Literally reporting every milestone they hit($50K, $175k, $220k, $750k) then in April of last year they just stopped. Then a year later after someone else reports selling $10m worth of stuff they suddenly appear again saying "Oh ya we passed $10m already". Please keep coming up with them though. It would be good to see some winners. The only one I've seen so far is a bar in Florida that hosts weekly bitcoin meetups.
- mrb 12y ago
  For Overstock you are looking at a very short time period (5 months). Similarly, Google's revenue declined over a 6-month period from $16.9B in 2013Q4 to $15.4B in 2014Q1, so by your logic Google's revenue is shrinking too(!) In reality sales are highly cyclical: you need to look at least at the year level to measure a trend. This is why I keep pointing you to payment processors BitPay and Coinbase, as they have existed for at least 1.5 years (and they publish numbers despite being private companies). Now that the first public companies are starting to accept Bitcoin (Expedia, Dell, Dish Network, Overstock), it is going to give us more data on Bitcoin's growth as they release public financial reports.
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  - 12y ago