4 ms·

The concern is that the Earth's magnetic field (likely) weakens around 10% or so during transitions, which leads to an increase in ionizing radiation reaching t

by gone35 12y ago

The concern is that the Earth's magnetic field (likely) weakens around 10% or so during transitions, which leads to an increase in ionizing radiation reaching the surface. This leads to two different risks: - Biospheric effects, due to increased rates of DNA damage; and - Infrastructure effects, due to increased radiation damage to satellites, or damages to power grids due to large induced currents from geomagnetic storms. Infrastructure effects are well understood: higher risk of power or communications outages. You can mitigate that risk by stockpiling water (which is a good thing to do anyway), buying a diesel generator, etc. On the other hand, biospheric effects are less well understood. There is some statistical evidence of some species going extinct right around pole reversals, and several plausible mechanisms have been proposed, but the evidence is by no means conclusive, due in part to intrinsic limits in the fossil record. Note however that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, so biospheric effects cannot be entirely discarded. But it is also unclear what steps could anyone take to mitigate such uncertain but potentially fat-tailed risks, so it is your call.

kamaal 12y ago
We also need to take into account cascading effects on a particular event. Lets say, for example global electricity is reduced to 30% of its current supply by radiation damage. I won't say the entire human species may go extinct, but for sure a lot of people will die. Literally nothing works without electricity today, starting from food production, to distribution, to cooking, to supply of water to literally every aspect of our life. I bet that number will be really high. Like more than 50% of the humans. I guess what you see then is struggle for the control of resources. A certain powerful groups will control the supply of resources and hence will dictate how every thing will play out from there on.
- Cthulhu_ 12y ago
  That is a possible scenario, but one that is only feasible if it were to suddenly happen; by the looks of it though, these effects will not be sudden, and will not be global; it's likely power outages will be slightly more common, but at the same time people can mitigate the effects by adding redundancy or shielding or however it works. So while the earth may be more susceptible to solar flares, it won't be as dramatic as your scenario (or that of doomsday preppers) states.
  - VLM 12y ago
    "and will not be global" No one ever dies from a global disaster, death is always very local, one person at a time. The city I work in exclusively drinks groundwater, which will be undrinkable after the electrically powered sewer system shuts down and there is no electrically produced chlorine to sanitize the water. So a guaranteed million dead people after a couple days without electricity. Its comforting to the species that the death of everyone in the city represents only 0.01% of worldwide population. Its not very comforting to me that 0.01% of the population being dead represents a large fraction of my family, everyone I know in day to day living, all my coworkers and local customers. That might be a slightly bigger problem for me, than for mankind as a whole. Of course we're not the only city on the planet that drinks groundwater and dumps treated sewage into the same groundwater source. Some cities in "hurricane land" are used to this problem and have plans and stockpiles. Not our city, of course. And where I live (as opposed to work) we have deep well water pumps... 1000 ft down. Works well electrically, but once we run out of diesel, we're stuck with the same contaminated groundwater. Doomsday looks a lot more like the great depression combined with the 1917 flu epidemic at the same time, than like alas babylon or lucifers hammer.

by gone35 12y ago

kamaal 12y ago

We also need to take into account cascading effects on a particular event. Lets say, for example global electricity is reduced to 30% of its current supply by radiation damage. I won't say the entire human species may go extinct, but for sure a lot of people will die. Literally nothing works without electricity today, starting from food production, to distribution, to cooking, to supply of water to literally every aspect of our life. I bet that number will be really high. Like more than 50% of the humans. I guess what you see then is struggle for the control of resources. A certain powerful groups will control the supply of resources and hence will dictate how every thing will play out from there on.

Cthulhu_ 12y ago
That is a possible scenario, but one that is only feasible if it were to suddenly happen; by the looks of it though, these effects will not be sudden, and will not be global; it's likely power outages will be slightly more common, but at the same time people can mitigate the effects by adding redundancy or shielding or however it works. So while the earth may be more susceptible to solar flares, it won't be as dramatic as your scenario (or that of doomsday preppers) states.
- VLM 12y ago
  "and will not be global" No one ever dies from a global disaster, death is always very local, one person at a time. The city I work in exclusively drinks groundwater, which will be undrinkable after the electrically powered sewer system shuts down and there is no electrically produced chlorine to sanitize the water. So a guaranteed million dead people after a couple days without electricity. Its comforting to the species that the death of everyone in the city represents only 0.01% of worldwide population. Its not very comforting to me that 0.01% of the population being dead represents a large fraction of my family, everyone I know in day to day living, all my coworkers and local customers. That might be a slightly bigger problem for me, than for mankind as a whole. Of course we're not the only city on the planet that drinks groundwater and dumps treated sewage into the same groundwater source. Some cities in "hurricane land" are used to this problem and have plans and stockpiles. Not our city, of course. And where I live (as opposed to work) we have deep well water pumps... 1000 ft down. Works well electrically, but once we run out of diesel, we're stuck with the same contaminated groundwater. Doomsday looks a lot more like the great depression combined with the 1917 flu epidemic at the same time, than like alas babylon or lucifers hammer.