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And those countries will keep buying those derelict Soviet planes because those are dirt cheap to the point most are hand-me-downs obtained for free. In those c

by JVIDEL 12y ago

And those countries will keep buying those derelict Soviet planes because those are dirt cheap to the point most are hand-me-downs obtained for free. In those cases the countries have a bigger problem fueling the planes. And I wouldn't subestimate those old Soviet planes, the Indians have updated and overhauled the old Mig-21 to the point that is a very capable fighter jet able to compete against a block 50 F-16. There are many companies offering updates for such planes and those are much cheaper than brand-new units.

mikecb 12y ago
All true. But this would be an alternative, the same that Mirage's were a popular alternative for MiGs. At some point, those soviet planes become so expensive to maintain that it's worth it to purchase new ones. Of course, to properly manage that scenario, you need a competent accountant...
- JVIDEL 12y ago
  It will never get more expensive than $20 million per plane + all the new support structure needed, from new ground radars and data systems to even new tooling for the mechanics. In any case those countries are more far more likely to buy drones instead, which is why the number of companies in that sector is huge.
  - vonmoltke 12y ago
    > all the new support structure needed They will not require an "all new" support structure. The same basic facilities will work for any single-seat fighter-bomber. The main things needed will be special tooling and ground carts. These are usually provided as part of the purchase package and may already be factored into the $20m price tag. > new ground radars Ground-based radar sets are irrelevant. > and data systems All those Soviet bird upgrades tear out every piece of of Soviet electronics and refit them with new, Western systems. Data links and similar systems will need to be upgraded anyway. On top of that, the Scorpion and the upgrade packages are going to use compatible data link technology, so an air force can even mix Scorpions with Soviet retreads.
  - blhack 12y ago
    >all the new support structure needed This is built from civilian components, isn't it?
    - acveilleux 12y ago
      It's a really sexy skin on a cessna citation business jet. Even the same turbofan engines...
JPKab 12y ago
I thought that the "buy a bunch of old MiGs" model was blown apart by Middle Eastern MiGs getting annihilated by Israelis in F-15s.
- ovi256 12y ago
  If you put the Israeli pilots in the MIGs and the Middle Eastern pilots in the F-15s, the result would probably not change. Hardware is sexy but sexy doesn't win battles.
  - cafard 12y ago
    Remind me again where Israel is located...
- JVIDEL 12y ago
  There's a world of difference between a rusted barely fly worthy Mig and the "Bison" upgrade the Indians and Israelis created. Case in point the old Mig-21 had a so-so radar from the start, the Bison version has a state-of-the-art radar able to target and fire at multiple objectives at the same time. And that's just once component of many that were upgraded.
cstross 12y ago
The problem with the old Soviet planes is that they're old. The USSR collapsed in 1991; they're now 23+ years old. The design life of a civil airliner is 30 years, after which it's effectively a beater flying air freight in the developing world. For a warplane, it may be shorter -- either it flies regularly, racking up airframe hours in a very demanding environment, or the pilots are so undertrained it's useless as an asset. So my guess is that the supply of ex-USSR planes is going to gradually dry up over the next decade, leaving only refurbs and aircraft that have been stuck at the back of a hangar. The price will climb -- after all, Russia is still exporting newer, better versions -- and sooner or later the lowering cost curve of the largely-COTS-based Scorpion will overlap with the rising cost curve of keeping the old Soviet kit airworthy. (India ... is not a good comparison. India builds nuclear reactors and sent a home-built probe to Mars on a home-built space launcher. India is developing its own supersonic strike fighter. Upgrading old Soviet kit is something they've got a lot of experience at. I expect Scorpion to sell to the sort of governments who don't have much of an aerospace industry. Argentina, for example, who've bought no new warplanes since the kicking they took in 1982. Or Iran, if a decade hence they come off the US government's shit list and turn into the west's BFF against wahhabism.)
- JVIDEL 12y ago
  The F-15 is 42 years old, and yet its still being built, still being upgraded, still being sold and still kicking ass. Same with the Mig-29 and Su-27 which are still the mainstay of the Russian forces until the PAK-FA moves into mass production, same situation than the F-15 if you consider the state of the F-22 and F-35 programs right now. Boeing is even building an upgraded F-15 with stealth, and many would-be buyers of the F-35 like South Korea are now considering that 42 year old plane over the brand new model. The countries you name actually DO have an aerospace industry, you should've googled that before. Iran in particular had to create one after the embargo.
  - commandar 12y ago
    >The F-15 is 42 years old, and yet its still being built, still being upgraded, still being sold and still kicking ass. The problem isn't that the designs are old. It's that the physical airframes are old. The entire F-15C fleet has been grounded multiple times in the past decade due to failures related to the sheer age and wear on the airframes in inventory. One of those failures included a plane literally breaking apart in midair during training. http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/11/28/f15.grounded/ http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/11/28/f15.grounded/ >Boeing is even building an upgraded F-15 with stealth Boeing put together a demonstrator with some stealth enhancements. To date there have been no buyers and they've been shopping it around for several years.

by JVIDEL 12y ago

mikecb 12y ago

All true. But this would be an alternative, the same that Mirage's were a popular alternative for MiGs. At some point, those soviet planes become so expensive to maintain that it's worth it to purchase new ones. Of course, to properly manage that scenario, you need a competent accountant...

JVIDEL 12y ago
It will never get more expensive than $20 million per plane + all the new support structure needed, from new ground radars and data systems to even new tooling for the mechanics. In any case those countries are more far more likely to buy drones instead, which is why the number of companies in that sector is huge.
- vonmoltke 12y ago
  > all the new support structure needed They will not require an "all new" support structure. The same basic facilities will work for any single-seat fighter-bomber. The main things needed will be special tooling and ground carts. These are usually provided as part of the purchase package and may already be factored into the $20m price tag. > new ground radars Ground-based radar sets are irrelevant. > and data systems All those Soviet bird upgrades tear out every piece of of Soviet electronics and refit them with new, Western systems. Data links and similar systems will need to be upgraded anyway. On top of that, the Scorpion and the upgrade packages are going to use compatible data link technology, so an air force can even mix Scorpions with Soviet retreads.
- blhack 12y ago
  >all the new support structure needed This is built from civilian components, isn't it?
  - acveilleux 12y ago
    It's a really sexy skin on a cessna citation business jet. Even the same turbofan engines...

JPKab 12y ago

I thought that the "buy a bunch of old MiGs" model was blown apart by Middle Eastern MiGs getting annihilated by Israelis in F-15s.

ovi256 12y ago
If you put the Israeli pilots in the MIGs and the Middle Eastern pilots in the F-15s, the result would probably not change. Hardware is sexy but sexy doesn't win battles.
- cafard 12y ago
  Remind me again where Israel is located...
JVIDEL 12y ago
There's a world of difference between a rusted barely fly worthy Mig and the "Bison" upgrade the Indians and Israelis created. Case in point the old Mig-21 had a so-so radar from the start, the Bison version has a state-of-the-art radar able to target and fire at multiple objectives at the same time. And that's just once component of many that were upgraded.

cstross 12y ago

The problem with the old Soviet planes is that they're old. The USSR collapsed in 1991; they're now 23+ years old. The design life of a civil airliner is 30 years, after which it's effectively a beater flying air freight in the developing world. For a warplane, it may be shorter -- either it flies regularly, racking up airframe hours in a very demanding environment, or the pilots are so undertrained it's useless as an asset. So my guess is that the supply of ex-USSR planes is going to gradually dry up over the next decade, leaving only refurbs and aircraft that have been stuck at the back of a hangar. The price will climb -- after all, Russia is still exporting newer, better versions -- and sooner or later the lowering cost curve of the largely-COTS-based Scorpion will overlap with the rising cost curve of keeping the old Soviet kit airworthy. (India ... is not a good comparison. India builds nuclear reactors and sent a home-built probe to Mars on a home-built space launcher. India is developing its own supersonic strike fighter. Upgrading old Soviet kit is something they've got a lot of experience at. I expect Scorpion to sell to the sort of governments who don't have much of an aerospace industry. Argentina, for example, who've bought no new warplanes since the kicking they took in 1982. Or Iran, if a decade hence they come off the US government's shit list and turn into the west's BFF against wahhabism.)

JVIDEL 12y ago
The F-15 is 42 years old, and yet its still being built, still being upgraded, still being sold and still kicking ass. Same with the Mig-29 and Su-27 which are still the mainstay of the Russian forces until the PAK-FA moves into mass production, same situation than the F-15 if you consider the state of the F-22 and F-35 programs right now. Boeing is even building an upgraded F-15 with stealth, and many would-be buyers of the F-35 like South Korea are now considering that 42 year old plane over the brand new model. The countries you name actually DO have an aerospace industry, you should've googled that before. Iran in particular had to create one after the embargo.
- commandar 12y ago
  >The F-15 is 42 years old, and yet its still being built, still being upgraded, still being sold and still kicking ass. The problem isn't that the designs are old. It's that the physical airframes are old. The entire F-15C fleet has been grounded multiple times in the past decade due to failures related to the sheer age and wear on the airframes in inventory. One of those failures included a plane literally breaking apart in midair during training. http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/11/28/f15.grounded/ http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/11/28/f15.grounded/ >Boeing is even building an upgraded F-15 with stealth Boeing put together a demonstrator with some stealth enhancements. To date there have been no buyers and they've been shopping it around for several years.