Seems like in this study though there is no incentive for those "who know nothing" to bow out since there is no penalty in guessing wrong. I'd say that the pop

Seems like in this study though there is no incentive for those "who know nothing" to bow out since there is no penalty in guessing wrong. I'd say that the population that constitutes the prediction market should be "confident", while the population that guesses right in this study would be described as having opinions not influenced by the opinion of others (or at least its mean). I guess that the two are very similar but you can be also very confident in an opinion that you have changed based on the opinions of others ;)