4 ms·

I wish the headline made it clear that the 'confidence' it refers to is not the personality trait associated with risk-taking and leadership but the more specif

I wish the headline made it clear that the 'confidence' it refers to is not the personality trait associated with risk-taking and leadership but the more specific 'confidence' and stubbornness in one's own opinion that one has on a topic when one believes that their opinion is founded on valid information related to that topic that few others are aware of while they were forming their opinions.

soneca 12y ago
You took 3 lines to explain the difference between the two meanings. How do you expect the writer to make it clear on a headline?
- SilasX 12y ago
  FWIW, I did it in one line [1]. But even better, I think the term "stubborn believers" is a better term and would have decreased the confusion, but note that it requires stubbornness plus disincentive for being wrong to correlate with correctness. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8032288 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8032288
- apalmer 12y ago
  he just should not have used the word confidence in the headline. He used to word confidence to make a more interesting headline, instead of using another word to make a more informative headline.
HNJohnC 12y ago
Is there any difference? Surely the reason a person takes risks is because in their own opinion it's not actually much of a risk at all due to their own confidence in their opinion. No?
dkarl 12y ago
I would add that they are stubborn in their estimate of an objectively known quantity knowing that their estimate will be compared to the "correct" value. In a situation where that threat/reassurance is absent, the incentives could be entirely different. (Using the length of a border defined by natural features [http://www.economist.com/node/13496212 http://www.economist.com/node/13496212] as an objectively knowable value might be problematic, but I believe that was the intent.)

4 ms·

I wish the headline made it clear that the 'confidence' it refers to is not the personality trait associated with risk-taking and leadership but the more specif

by jhanschoo 12y ago

soneca 12y ago
You took 3 lines to explain the difference between the two meanings. How do you expect the writer to make it clear on a headline?
- SilasX 12y ago
  FWIW, I did it in one line [1]. But even better, I think the term "stubborn believers" is a better term and would have decreased the confusion, but note that it requires stubbornness plus disincentive for being wrong to correlate with correctness. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8032288 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8032288
- apalmer 12y ago
  he just should not have used the word confidence in the headline. He used to word confidence to make a more interesting headline, instead of using another word to make a more informative headline.
HNJohnC 12y ago
Is there any difference? Surely the reason a person takes risks is because in their own opinion it's not actually much of a risk at all due to their own confidence in their opinion. No?
dkarl 12y ago
I would add that they are stubborn in their estimate of an objectively known quantity knowing that their estimate will be compared to the "correct" value. In a situation where that threat/reassurance is absent, the incentives could be entirely different. (Using the length of a border defined by natural features [http://www.economist.com/node/13496212 http://www.economist.com/node/13496212] as an objectively knowable value might be problematic, but I believe that was the intent.)