The issue with using a DCF based approach, is that you have to bet only a single scenario whereas if you take a decision tree/probability based model, you can a

The issue with using a DCF based approach, is that you have to bet only a single scenario whereas if you take a decision tree/probability based model, you can account for a range of scenarios. Here is Charlie Munger on Warren Buffet: ==== http://old.ycombinator.com/munger.html http://old.ycombinator.com/munger.html One of the advantages of a fellow like Buffett, whom I've worked with all these years, is that he automatically thinks in terms of decision trees and the elementary math of permutations and combinations.... ==== Here is a probability model vs DCF based model. Goldman uses a probability based model which can be used to evaluate changing shifts in technology such as Tesla's Autonomous technology http://uautoinsurance.com/b/tesla-valuation-cm488/ http://uautoinsurance.com/b/tesla-valuation-cm488/