6 ms·

Most striking are the race differences revealed in the study, Brame says. In particular, the research points to a higher prevalence of arrest among black males

Most striking are the race differences revealed in the study, Brame says. In particular, the research points to a higher prevalence of arrest among black males and little race variation in arrest rates among females.... By age 23, 49 percent of black males, 44 percent of Hispanic males and 38 percent of white males have been arrested.... By age 23, arrest rates were 20 percent for white females and 18 percent and 16 percent for Hispanic and black females, respectively. By age 23: - Black males have been arrested at a 29% higher rate than white males. - White females have been arrested at a 25% higher rate than black females. While the absolute rate of especially black male arrests is troubling, I find the racial differences in both genders striking and particularly surprising in the female case.

newman8r 12y ago
It's interesting the article downplays the discrepancy in the female arrest rates based on race.
- cbsmith 12y ago
  It's because the author is bad at interpreting statistics and doesn't recognize that a 4% difference when the average rate is closer to 18% is a way bigger difference than a 5 or even 6% difference when the average rate is closer to 40%.
  - jakethedog 12y ago
    The manuscript highlights the differences among the male populations are significant while those among the female populations are within the estimated confidence intervals.
    - cyorir 12y ago
      Correct. To see the original, you can check the journal itself [0] (check for it on google scholar if this link doesn't work) or look for it at your nearest academic library, if they have it. It is published in the April issue. The conclusion was that the difference was not significant for the female population. Keep in mind that the study was based on a limited sample so care must be taken when generalizing conclusions from the starting data to the population as a whole. [0] http://cad.sagepub.com/content/60/3/471.abstract http://cad.sagepub.com/content/60/3/471.abstract
      - cbsmith 12y ago
        This is a curious approach to the study. You'd think you'd at least consider using census data paired with arrest data. Sure there are statistical biases there, but they'd probably be smaller than the sampling error.
    - cbsmith 12y ago
      Yes, but the correct interpretation of that is not that the variance is too small, but that the population is too small. The correct conclusion to reach here (and appears to match what the study says) is that there is a huge gender gap, amongst males there is a statistically significant racial gap, and amongst females the sample size was too small to detect if a similar gap exists. The female racial gap may not be statistically significant, so you can't say for sure if it is there, but it is possible that it is actually much more significant than the male racial gap. The article says there is "little race variation in arrest rates among females", which is not true. There is more variation than amongst the male population --it just might not be statistically significant. At best you can say, "despite even bigger variance between races in the female arrest data, the sample of female arrests was too small for it to be conclusive".
Steer 12y ago
Strange, but coming from an European background while taking in a lot of American culture, I was (pleasantly, I guess) surprised that the discrepancy between white and black males wasn't larger. I am more or less shocked about he percentages overall, but really thought the gap was much larger. Sorry if this doesn't add anything substantial, but I honestly would have have guessed that it was about 3 times more black males getting arrested than white males. I need to broaden where I get my US-information from obviously.
- ryanlchan 12y ago
  The arrest rate is also different from the incarceration rate, which is much more heavily skewed. According to Pew, black men are incarcerated at ~6.5 the rate that white men are, per capita[1]. [1] http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/09/06/incarceration-gap-between-whites-and-blacks-widens/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/09/06/incarceratio...
- Eliezer 12y ago
  As tzs points out above, this could be because police take crimes against black victims less seriously.
- foobarian 12y ago
  I had the same reaction, and even though I have an European background I don't think it has anything to do with it. There must be another divide in play there in addition to racial. Small town vs big city? Poor vs. rich? Cold vs. warm climate? Those percentages seem incredibly high, and looking at the circle of people I know, I would never have guessed it that high. It could be that people just don't talk about their criminal records but it's still not 1 in 5.
- Spooky23 12y ago
  Your perception is mostly based on TV. Crime correlates to poverty. People with nothing to lose roll the dice and do dumb shit. I grew up in NYC and a rural part of Upstate NY that were about as opposite as you could get. The small town still had "bad" neighborhoods, they were run down trailer parks with old trailers and poor people. They committed the same types of stupid crimes, like robbery, vandalism and fighting. The drug trade was there, but mostly centered around smuggling and growing weed. (There are only so many drug users in a town of 2,500 without a major transit route, so the retail business wasn't great!) In the inner city, you get the added instability of the retail drug market. IMO, population density and the retail drug business are the reason why black males get arrested more. Desperate white people are just as desperate as their black equivalent.
deleted 12y ago
[deleted]
tzs 12y ago
Black males are disproportionately represented among those in poverty or with low income compared to white males. If the police completely ignored race, we would expect black males to be arrested at a higher rate than white males. The most troubling possibility that the black male vs white male rate suggests to me is that police might not be taking black victims as seriously as white victims. Blacks die by homicide at a rate that is around 16 times the rate whites die from homicide, for instance. I haven't analyzed this to make sure I'm not running into something like Simpson's Paradox or something similar that makes it easy to mess up when looking at cross group statistics, but my first impression is that if police were working as diligently to solve crimes against black people as they do to solve crimes against white people, they would be arresting a lot more black criminals than they do. The female data is interesting. I don't even have a guess as to why white females might be arrested at a higher rate than black females.
- gametheoretic 12y ago
  Black females don't have the time in the day to get arrested. White women live in a consequence-free environment until they don't. A dozen other things. It depends how frank we all want to be. >Black males are disproportionately represented among those in poverty or with low income compared to white males. Who on earth is the intended audience here--
  - alexeisadeski3 12y ago
    Why downvoted?
    - obvious_throw 12y ago
      Because of this: White women live in a consequence-free environment until they don't. While absolutely true in North America, it's one of those things you're not permitted to say: http://www.paulgraham.com/say.html http://www.paulgraham.com/say.html Hence, the downvotes.
      - briandh 12y ago

newman8r 12y ago

It's interesting the article downplays the discrepancy in the female arrest rates based on race.

cbsmith 12y ago
It's because the author is bad at interpreting statistics and doesn't recognize that a 4% difference when the average rate is closer to 18% is a way bigger difference than a 5 or even 6% difference when the average rate is closer to 40%.
- jakethedog 12y ago
  The manuscript highlights the differences among the male populations are significant while those among the female populations are within the estimated confidence intervals.
  - cyorir 12y ago
    Correct. To see the original, you can check the journal itself [0] (check for it on google scholar if this link doesn't work) or look for it at your nearest academic library, if they have it. It is published in the April issue. The conclusion was that the difference was not significant for the female population. Keep in mind that the study was based on a limited sample so care must be taken when generalizing conclusions from the starting data to the population as a whole. [0] http://cad.sagepub.com/content/60/3/471.abstract http://cad.sagepub.com/content/60/3/471.abstract
    - cbsmith 12y ago
      This is a curious approach to the study. You'd think you'd at least consider using census data paired with arrest data. Sure there are statistical biases there, but they'd probably be smaller than the sampling error.
  - cbsmith 12y ago
    Yes, but the correct interpretation of that is not that the variance is too small, but that the population is too small. The correct conclusion to reach here (and appears to match what the study says) is that there is a huge gender gap, amongst males there is a statistically significant racial gap, and amongst females the sample size was too small to detect if a similar gap exists. The female racial gap may not be statistically significant, so you can't say for sure if it is there, but it is possible that it is actually much more significant than the male racial gap. The article says there is "little race variation in arrest rates among females", which is not true. There is more variation than amongst the male population --it just might not be statistically significant. At best you can say, "despite even bigger variance between races in the female arrest data, the sample of female arrests was too small for it to be conclusive".

Steer 12y ago

Strange, but coming from an European background while taking in a lot of American culture, I was (pleasantly, I guess) surprised that the discrepancy between white and black males wasn't larger. I am more or less shocked about he percentages overall, but really thought the gap was much larger. Sorry if this doesn't add anything substantial, but I honestly would have have guessed that it was about 3 times more black males getting arrested than white males. I need to broaden where I get my US-information from obviously.

ryanlchan 12y ago
The arrest rate is also different from the incarceration rate, which is much more heavily skewed. According to Pew, black men are incarcerated at ~6.5 the rate that white men are, per capita[1]. [1] http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/09/06/incarceration-gap-between-whites-and-blacks-widens/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/09/06/incarceratio...
Eliezer 12y ago
As tzs points out above, this could be because police take crimes against black victims less seriously.
foobarian 12y ago
I had the same reaction, and even though I have an European background I don't think it has anything to do with it. There must be another divide in play there in addition to racial. Small town vs big city? Poor vs. rich? Cold vs. warm climate? Those percentages seem incredibly high, and looking at the circle of people I know, I would never have guessed it that high. It could be that people just don't talk about their criminal records but it's still not 1 in 5.
Spooky23 12y ago
Your perception is mostly based on TV. Crime correlates to poverty. People with nothing to lose roll the dice and do dumb shit. I grew up in NYC and a rural part of Upstate NY that were about as opposite as you could get. The small town still had "bad" neighborhoods, they were run down trailer parks with old trailers and poor people. They committed the same types of stupid crimes, like robbery, vandalism and fighting. The drug trade was there, but mostly centered around smuggling and growing weed. (There are only so many drug users in a town of 2,500 without a major transit route, so the retail business wasn't great!) In the inner city, you get the added instability of the retail drug market. IMO, population density and the retail drug business are the reason why black males get arrested more. Desperate white people are just as desperate as their black equivalent.

deleted 12y ago

[deleted]

tzs 12y ago

Black males are disproportionately represented among those in poverty or with low income compared to white males. If the police completely ignored race, we would expect black males to be arrested at a higher rate than white males. The most troubling possibility that the black male vs white male rate suggests to me is that police might not be taking black victims as seriously as white victims. Blacks die by homicide at a rate that is around 16 times the rate whites die from homicide, for instance. I haven't analyzed this to make sure I'm not running into something like Simpson's Paradox or something similar that makes it easy to mess up when looking at cross group statistics, but my first impression is that if police were working as diligently to solve crimes against black people as they do to solve crimes against white people, they would be arresting a lot more black criminals than they do. The female data is interesting. I don't even have a guess as to why white females might be arrested at a higher rate than black females.

gametheoretic 12y ago
Black females don't have the time in the day to get arrested. White women live in a consequence-free environment until they don't. A dozen other things. It depends how frank we all want to be. >Black males are disproportionately represented among those in poverty or with low income compared to white males. Who on earth is the intended audience here--
- alexeisadeski3 12y ago
  Why downvoted?
  - obvious_throw 12y ago
    Because of this: White women live in a consequence-free environment until they don't. While absolutely true in North America, it's one of those things you're not permitted to say: http://www.paulgraham.com/say.html http://www.paulgraham.com/say.html Hence, the downvotes.
    - briandh 12y ago