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I find this frankly implausible. What percentage of people you know have been arrested? I'm guessing very small (even assuming that many hide it and so you're k

I find this frankly implausible. What percentage of people you know have been arrested? I'm guessing very small (even assuming that many hide it and so you're knowledge is substantially skewed). So maybe that's because of your high/squeaky-clean socio-economic class? No: imagine yourself in any class you care to. Unless that class is much, much larger than your "real" class, then it would have to have an astronomical arrest rate (80%?) to compensate. I wanna see the data.

rootedbox 12y ago
I have a lot of friends that have been arrested. So for me this number is very believable. It's actually not a very hard thing to get arrested. I had friend go to jail for not neutering his cat. That being said.. It's always nice to see the data.
pyrrhotech 12y ago
I agree. I come from a nice area, but I know maybe 10 people out of 2000 who have ever been arrested. And it was just underage drinking for them. Perhaps I live in a bubble, but this is suspiciously high
- furyofantares 12y ago
  While it is suspiciously high to me too, I am also skeptical that you know 2000 people well enough to know if they have ever been arrested
- jqm 12y ago
  Yes, but there are vasts swaths of the country were arrest rates are much much higher than 10 out of 2000 people (not that they would all tell you anyway). I understand living in a bubble.... but you are not at least aware of the vast scale of these areas? If not, you should drive around more in my opinion.
munificent 12y ago
> I find this frankly implausible. What percentage of people you know have been arrested? The narrow-mindedness of this is breathtaking. An article about a peer-reviewed paper containing basic survey results asserts something about the entire US and your response is: "Well, that doesn't line up with my circle of friends so it must be bullshit?" > Unless that class is much, much larger than your "real" class, then it would have to have an astronomical arrest rate (80%?) to compensate. Assuming you're in a "high/squeaky-clean socio-economic", then, yes, that class is much larger than yours. If you live in the US and make $100k or more (which is likely true for many HN readers), there are four times as many people who make less than you. > I wanna see the data. The article links to the paper (behind a paywall). If you want to see the data, get off your butt and look at the data.
binarymax 12y ago
I know plenty who sat in the drunk tank in college, or were busted on minor drug or shoplifting offenses or other teenage nonsense. I feel that the number is plausible.
jobu 12y ago
I remember tons of people getting arrested for underage drinking in college - much more so than in high school where getting caught by parents was a bigger concern than cops.
- nmrm 12y ago
  Wow! I had exactly the opposite experience. Although by high school was very working class and my college very white.
harrystone 12y ago
Offhand I can't think of any of my friends who haven't been arrested.
klochner 12y ago
I believe it, most arrests would fall into: - truancy (skipping school) - petty theft - underage drinking - DUI - drug possession (mostly marijuana) Now think about how many people you know who have ever done one of those things.
- a_c_s 12y ago
  Good list, I'd also add: - trespassing - political protests
- altcognito 12y ago
  Reckless driving too. (Bill Gates for one)
jychang 12y ago
Not implausible at all. I'm probably in the squeaky clean category. On a day of a meteor shower, I went with some friends to take pictures of the sky. A park ranger arrested us, for being in a national park after dark. After arresting us, he spent 5 mins talking on the radio with some other ranger, then spent 5 mins writing a citation. Paid it in the mail a few weeks later, never heard of it again. It doesn't take much to be arrested. 40% is a bit high, but then again my group of friends at the time was Harvard/Princeton/Stanford/Berkeley students. The socioeconomic status of the population really doesn't matter.
- tedunangst 12y ago
  Did he arrest you or give you a citation?
  - smackfu 12y ago
    This survey is based on interviewing people, not on arrest statistics, so if you think you were arrested, it counts as an arrest.
  - head_stomp 12y ago
    Receiving a citation is a non-custodial arrest. edit just to make it clear: This is not my opinion. This is the legal definition. The study includes citations as arrests. This is why they make sure to point out that they do not include minor traffic offenses.
    - tedunangst 12y ago
      ok, that's a little weird. I got a ticket once for cutting through a park after dark. I would never have considered that being arrested, but hurray, today I learned I'm part of the 40%. I have also received a ticket for speeding, which all things considered, was a more serious offense/penalty. It's weird that the speeding ticket is excluded but not the walking ticket.
      - vidarh 12y ago
steveklabnik 12y ago
Hi, I'm a long-time HN user, and I've been arrested. (I also know lots of others who have.)
baddox 12y ago
I grew up in a mostly white, rural, middle class setting, and I would estimate that at least 25% of my male friends have been arrested. There are probably enough "other classes" (e.g. non-white, urban, or poor) that are sufficiently populous with sufficiently higher arrest rates that I don't have much difficulty believing the statistic.
rurban 12y ago
I aligns to previously known data and studies that >50% of all black men in the age group 18-60 were in US prisons. I didn't know about the rates of young whites and hispanics. But given the enormous prisoner numbers in the US it also sounds plausible.
mikestew 12y ago
> I find this frankly implausible. What percentage of people you know have been arrested? The group of people I know is irrelevant. The group of people I currently know is but a small subset of the US population. Upper-middle class, white suburbia. Double income household, with both in the six figures. Yeah, we're just a slice of typical Americana right there. (Though I have been arrested...several times. I was a bad boy once.) But, hey, if you want to talk anecdotes then we can talk about the group of people I used to know. Lower class, much higher percentage of blacks (I currently have no black friends, and barely a few acquaintances). Though it's been a few decades, there were plenty from that group that had been arrested (some of whom I bailed out). Notice how I mention black folk? Yeah, in Indianapolis at the time that was important because the county prosecutor decided that a car full of young black males was probable cause for a traffic stop (swear to $DEITY, that's all that was needed for a stop). So race might skew those numbers a bit through no fault of the folks involved (other than the fact that they were young, male, and "driving while black"). And hence we render anecdotal data useless, which is why we use peer-reviews studies with much larger data sets. Because when you take data just from a redneck city with a redneck prosecutor, race might just make a teensy bit of difference. Or maybe the environment of that particular city. Or maybe it was just the ne'er-do-well friends I hung out with. > I wanna see the data. And you're not looking at those data with your own eyes because...? Platter's not silver enough? Have to hold the spoon yourself?
Fezzik 12y ago
The study appears to be using "arrested" to mean "convicted of a crime for which the person could have been arrested (taken in to police custody)"? Example: I have never been arrested/taken in to police custody but, I was convicted of providing alcohol to minors at a college party and, had I not willingly taken the citation from the officer or, had I been belligerent and uncooperative, I could have been arrested. Technically, you could argue while the officer was issuing me the citation I was under some sort of arrest, but that does not comport with either the legal notion of being under arrest or what most people think of as being under arrest.* Given the journal, that seems like an odd error to make. I could have that wrong, but it would make sense given that article specifically mentions truancy and underage drinking, two charges which seldom result in arrest. Maybe that makes the statistic a little less shocking to those surprised by the number? Again, I certainly could be wrong, but it really would be surprising if the 40% refers to people actually having been read Miranda rights, hand cuffed, placed in a police car, etcetera. Even for other common crimes for that age group, like possession (generally marijuana), usually a citation is issued and the drugs are seized but no arrest is made. This is all said from the perspective of a judicial clerk in Portland, Oregon, who works a lot with the dockets related to citations related to minor misdemeanor offenses. Perhaps it is different in other states. Anecdotally: almost everyone I know well has been convicted of a misdemeanor of some sort for which they could have been arrested but only one person I know has ever been taken in to police custody. * http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrest#United_States_2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrest#United_States_2
- kghose 12y ago
  I would say you're is the most insightful comment in this thread. I am biased towards thinking you are correct in that when one publishes a paper, there are incentives towards a more dramatic interpretation/presentation of the data. So, a study that said 10% of all males have been arrested, would not have gotten as much notice as the current presentation.
  - deleted 12y ago
    [deleted]
- akjetma 12y ago
megaman22 12y ago
Anecdotally, at my Ivy League college that has recently gotten some lovely press in Rolling Stone, I would estimate that at least 40% of male students have been arrested at one point or another for underage drinking. There are a couple of law firms in that town that do a thriving business in defending underage possession and disorderly conduct cases.
PeterisP 12y ago
Actually, you should generally expect that ANY statistical analysis will give significantly different results than what you'd see of people around you. Many of such parameters exhibit clustering; so if 50% people are X; then you'd expect most people to say "hey, that's wrong, that's not what I see" - since there would be many people that would see that 80+% of their friends would be X; and there would be many people that would see that 20-% of their friends are X, but virtually noone would have a circle of friends that would have the "true" 50/50 split.

rootedbox 12y ago

I have a lot of friends that have been arrested. So for me this number is very believable. It's actually not a very hard thing to get arrested. I had friend go to jail for not neutering his cat. That being said.. It's always nice to see the data.

pyrrhotech 12y ago

I agree. I come from a nice area, but I know maybe 10 people out of 2000 who have ever been arrested. And it was just underage drinking for them. Perhaps I live in a bubble, but this is suspiciously high

furyofantares 12y ago
While it is suspiciously high to me too, I am also skeptical that you know 2000 people well enough to know if they have ever been arrested
jqm 12y ago
Yes, but there are vasts swaths of the country were arrest rates are much much higher than 10 out of 2000 people (not that they would all tell you anyway). I understand living in a bubble.... but you are not at least aware of the vast scale of these areas? If not, you should drive around more in my opinion.

munificent 12y ago

> I find this frankly implausible. What percentage of people you know have been arrested? The narrow-mindedness of this is breathtaking. An article about a peer-reviewed paper containing basic survey results asserts something about the entire US and your response is: "Well, that doesn't line up with my circle of friends so it must be bullshit?" > Unless that class is much, much larger than your "real" class, then it would have to have an astronomical arrest rate (80%?) to compensate. Assuming you're in a "high/squeaky-clean socio-economic", then, yes, that class is much larger than yours. If you live in the US and make $100k or more (which is likely true for many HN readers), there are four times as many people who make less than you. > I wanna see the data. The article links to the paper (behind a paywall). If you want to see the data, get off your butt and look at the data.

binarymax 12y ago

I know plenty who sat in the drunk tank in college, or were busted on minor drug or shoplifting offenses or other teenage nonsense. I feel that the number is plausible.

jobu 12y ago

I remember tons of people getting arrested for underage drinking in college - much more so than in high school where getting caught by parents was a bigger concern than cops.

nmrm 12y ago
Wow! I had exactly the opposite experience. Although by high school was very working class and my college very white.

harrystone 12y ago

Offhand I can't think of any of my friends who haven't been arrested.

klochner 12y ago

I believe it, most arrests would fall into: - truancy (skipping school) - petty theft - underage drinking - DUI - drug possession (mostly marijuana) Now think about how many people you know who have ever done one of those things.

a_c_s 12y ago
Good list, I'd also add: - trespassing - political protests
altcognito 12y ago
Reckless driving too. (Bill Gates for one)

jychang 12y ago

Not implausible at all. I'm probably in the squeaky clean category. On a day of a meteor shower, I went with some friends to take pictures of the sky. A park ranger arrested us, for being in a national park after dark. After arresting us, he spent 5 mins talking on the radio with some other ranger, then spent 5 mins writing a citation. Paid it in the mail a few weeks later, never heard of it again. It doesn't take much to be arrested. 40% is a bit high, but then again my group of friends at the time was Harvard/Princeton/Stanford/Berkeley students. The socioeconomic status of the population really doesn't matter.

tedunangst 12y ago
Did he arrest you or give you a citation?
- smackfu 12y ago
  This survey is based on interviewing people, not on arrest statistics, so if you think you were arrested, it counts as an arrest.
- head_stomp 12y ago
  Receiving a citation is a non-custodial arrest. edit just to make it clear: This is not my opinion. This is the legal definition. The study includes citations as arrests. This is why they make sure to point out that they do not include minor traffic offenses.
  - tedunangst 12y ago
    ok, that's a little weird. I got a ticket once for cutting through a park after dark. I would never have considered that being arrested, but hurray, today I learned I'm part of the 40%. I have also received a ticket for speeding, which all things considered, was a more serious offense/penalty. It's weird that the speeding ticket is excluded but not the walking ticket.
    - vidarh 12y ago

steveklabnik 12y ago

Hi, I'm a long-time HN user, and I've been arrested. (I also know lots of others who have.)

baddox 12y ago

I grew up in a mostly white, rural, middle class setting, and I would estimate that at least 25% of my male friends have been arrested. There are probably enough "other classes" (e.g. non-white, urban, or poor) that are sufficiently populous with sufficiently higher arrest rates that I don't have much difficulty believing the statistic.

rurban 12y ago

I aligns to previously known data and studies that >50% of all black men in the age group 18-60 were in US prisons. I didn't know about the rates of young whites and hispanics. But given the enormous prisoner numbers in the US it also sounds plausible.

mikestew 12y ago

> I find this frankly implausible. What percentage of people you know have been arrested? The group of people I know is irrelevant. The group of people I currently know is but a small subset of the US population. Upper-middle class, white suburbia. Double income household, with both in the six figures. Yeah, we're just a slice of typical Americana right there. (Though I have been arrested...several times. I was a bad boy once.) But, hey, if you want to talk anecdotes then we can talk about the group of people I used to know. Lower class, much higher percentage of blacks (I currently have no black friends, and barely a few acquaintances). Though it's been a few decades, there were plenty from that group that had been arrested (some of whom I bailed out). Notice how I mention black folk? Yeah, in Indianapolis at the time that was important because the county prosecutor decided that a car full of young black males was probable cause for a traffic stop (swear to $DEITY, that's all that was needed for a stop). So race might skew those numbers a bit through no fault of the folks involved (other than the fact that they were young, male, and "driving while black"). And hence we render anecdotal data useless, which is why we use peer-reviews studies with much larger data sets. Because when you take data just from a redneck city with a redneck prosecutor, race might just make a teensy bit of difference. Or maybe the environment of that particular city. Or maybe it was just the ne'er-do-well friends I hung out with. > I wanna see the data. And you're not looking at those data with your own eyes because...? Platter's not silver enough? Have to hold the spoon yourself?

Fezzik 12y ago

The study appears to be using "arrested" to mean "convicted of a crime for which the person could have been arrested (taken in to police custody)"? Example: I have never been arrested/taken in to police custody but, I was convicted of providing alcohol to minors at a college party and, had I not willingly taken the citation from the officer or, had I been belligerent and uncooperative, I could have been arrested. Technically, you could argue while the officer was issuing me the citation I was under some sort of arrest, but that does not comport with either the legal notion of being under arrest or what most people think of as being under arrest.* Given the journal, that seems like an odd error to make. I could have that wrong, but it would make sense given that article specifically mentions truancy and underage drinking, two charges which seldom result in arrest. Maybe that makes the statistic a little less shocking to those surprised by the number? Again, I certainly could be wrong, but it really would be surprising if the 40% refers to people actually having been read Miranda rights, hand cuffed, placed in a police car, etcetera. Even for other common crimes for that age group, like possession (generally marijuana), usually a citation is issued and the drugs are seized but no arrest is made. This is all said from the perspective of a judicial clerk in Portland, Oregon, who works a lot with the dockets related to citations related to minor misdemeanor offenses. Perhaps it is different in other states. Anecdotally: almost everyone I know well has been convicted of a misdemeanor of some sort for which they could have been arrested but only one person I know has ever been taken in to police custody. * http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrest#United_States_2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrest#United_States_2

kghose 12y ago
I would say you're is the most insightful comment in this thread. I am biased towards thinking you are correct in that when one publishes a paper, there are incentives towards a more dramatic interpretation/presentation of the data. So, a study that said 10% of all males have been arrested, would not have gotten as much notice as the current presentation.
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
akjetma 12y ago

megaman22 12y ago

Anecdotally, at my Ivy League college that has recently gotten some lovely press in Rolling Stone, I would estimate that at least 40% of male students have been arrested at one point or another for underage drinking. There are a couple of law firms in that town that do a thriving business in defending underage possession and disorderly conduct cases.

PeterisP 12y ago

Actually, you should generally expect that ANY statistical analysis will give significantly different results than what you'd see of people around you. Many of such parameters exhibit clustering; so if 50% people are X; then you'd expect most people to say "hey, that's wrong, that's not what I see" - since there would be many people that would see that 80+% of their friends would be X; and there would be many people that would see that 20-% of their friends are X, but virtually noone would have a circle of friends that would have the "true" 50/50 split.