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One key point with this study is that it only covers people who were born between 1980 and 1984, and follows them through their lives. The summary articles ten

by smackfu 12y ago

One key point with this study is that it only covers people who were born between 1980 and 1984, and follows them through their lives. The summary articles tend to ignore that, and imply the same stats apply to people born in all years.

stonogo 12y ago
Do you have reason to believe that people born during that window are particularly jail-prone?
- Iftheshoefits 12y ago
  A large number of other reasons than your suggestion exist which may alter that rate for other cohorts: the quantity of offenses which allow arrest may have changed, the attitude of law enforcement may be more or less lax, etc.
- smackfu 12y ago
  Crime is definitely way down in the last 10 years. If you assume that most people are getting arrested in their 20's, then that would imply the rates would change for different birth years.
  - eric_h 12y ago
    > Crime is definitely way down in the last 10 years violent crime is. I don't think arrests are, though...
- pdkl95 12y ago
  There is one particularly well-correlated explanation for the higher rates of violent crime in roughly that time window: Ethyl (tetraethyl lead). http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-gasoline http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-li... edit: as noted in neighboring posts, "arrest" != "crime"
morgante 12y ago
That's very important to acknowledge, since it means that any and all public policy shifts over the last decade are discounted by this methodology. Of course, it's still an alarming statistic, but I'd hope it's been going down (along with crime rates) since this data was collected.
steele 12y ago
A few wars to fight in, 2 widespread market downturns to lose jobs in, record high tuition, predatory loans, culture of easy credit/overspend without financial literacy education, American Dream indoctrination .... and all these lazy edge genX>Y "millennials" seem to want to do is go to jail then expect boomers to golden spoonfeed them the world from a silver platter! Instead of competing for boomer jobs, these convicts need to suck it up and fight boomer wars, feed boomer economic mess, and shut up about climate bogeymen. Just vote, consume, and live out your sentence until the hatchlings of the greatest generation are able to retire on value you create.

by smackfu 12y ago

stonogo 12y ago

Do you have reason to believe that people born during that window are particularly jail-prone?

Iftheshoefits 12y ago
A large number of other reasons than your suggestion exist which may alter that rate for other cohorts: the quantity of offenses which allow arrest may have changed, the attitude of law enforcement may be more or less lax, etc.
smackfu 12y ago
Crime is definitely way down in the last 10 years. If you assume that most people are getting arrested in their 20's, then that would imply the rates would change for different birth years.
- eric_h 12y ago
  > Crime is definitely way down in the last 10 years violent crime is. I don't think arrests are, though...
pdkl95 12y ago
There is one particularly well-correlated explanation for the higher rates of violent crime in roughly that time window: Ethyl (tetraethyl lead). http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-gasoline http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-li... edit: as noted in neighboring posts, "arrest" != "crime"

morgante 12y ago

That's very important to acknowledge, since it means that any and all public policy shifts over the last decade are discounted by this methodology. Of course, it's still an alarming statistic, but I'd hope it's been going down (along with crime rates) since this data was collected.

steele 12y ago

A few wars to fight in, 2 widespread market downturns to lose jobs in, record high tuition, predatory loans, culture of easy credit/overspend without financial literacy education, American Dream indoctrination .... and all these lazy edge genX>Y "millennials" seem to want to do is go to jail then expect boomers to golden spoonfeed them the world from a silver platter! Instead of competing for boomer jobs, these convicts need to suck it up and fight boomer wars, feed boomer economic mess, and shut up about climate bogeymen. Just vote, consume, and live out your sentence until the hatchlings of the greatest generation are able to retire on value you create.