I mean at the broad level, sure stats applies. But even so, not many would have predicted Spain going out at the group stages, or Holland making it to the semis

I mean at the broad level, sure stats applies. But even so, not many would have predicted Spain going out at the group stages, or Holland making it to the semis. Football is a highly unpredictable sport because individual contributions can completely change the course of a match. All it takes for a minnow to beat a big team is some organized defending and a lucky goal, like Switzerland vs Spain past WC. In a sport where the margins of victory are small, it is difficult to apply statistical analysis correctly.