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What would be the justification for removing the discounting term for subsequent goals in the Elo model he mentions? Silver mentions that it was the lopsidedne
by plorg 12y ago
What would be the justification for removing the discounting term for subsequent goals in the Elo model he mentions?
Silver mentions that it was the lopsidedness of the score that made the game so surprising, and that the Elo model discounts increasingly lopsided games. As a consequence, this game would not be the "most surprising" game in the history of the world cup. Thus he removes the discounting term, re-runs the model, and poof this is now the most surprising game in World Cup history.
That just smacks of attempting to fit a model to one's intuitions. Was it any more "shocking" that Germany won 7-1 than that they were up 5-0 at halftime? I would presume that the "lopsidedness" discount is intended precisely to address the idea that once a team is winning by an overwhelming score the subsequent goals aren't really that surprising.
Really, though, a measure of "shockingness", at least as described in this piece, suggests more about what the Elo model cannot capture than it does about the subjective way that any one game was perceived.
- ohashi 12y agoI imagine the discount on a lopsided game is because the teams stop really playing. After 3 goals or so it's generally a done deal. So you start to see players pulled, playing very differently (conservatively).
- SamReidHughes 12y agoAlso, it's in the losing team's best interest to play for high variance, low expected value.
- zimpenfish 12y agoThat might apply in a league where you can amortise that loss over a whole bunch of games but in a single-shot knockout game, I'd expect a professional team to keep fighting even at 5-0 down - much as the Brazilians did in the second half. If it weren't for Neuer's outstanding saves, they could have had 3+ goals in the first 15 minutes. (Although the league sometimes doesn't work like that either - I remember listening to Spurs vs Man Utd when Man Utd went in at half-time 3-0 down and ended up winning 5-3 in what is possibly the most epic half of football I've heard in 30+ years.)
- coriny 12y agoArsenal coming back from 4-1 down against Reading to win 7-5 was pretty epic as well. Also, goal difference is important in leagues, so teams tend to play to the end even if the gap is large. Though I think this could be improved by changing to 2 points for a win, with a bonus point for scoring 3+ goals.