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The world is going to change drastically in the next 10-20 years. Side discussion related to the article: what to focus on? Will web development still be a thin

by rglover 12y ago

The world is going to change drastically in the next 10-20 years. Side discussion related to the article: what to focus on? Will web development still be a thing (I'm doubtful)? If so, what does web development look like in 2024? 2034? It seems like a lot of engineering energy will go into the design and manufacturing of the systems that will manage human life in space. Really curious. What do you see?

chatmasta 12y ago
The web is still an early platform, and there are still thousands of opportunities to make significant profits with relatively little startup cost. I think the web is a great place to make your first big chunk of money, and then in 10-20 years you can invest it in more capital-intensive, "world-changing" startups. Or maybe that's just what Elon Musk did. ;)
randallsquared 12y ago
It would be really nice if we were about to get the future as seen from 1965 (space-wise), but I think that's still unlikely. Even if there are as many as TEN "low cost" orbital rocket companies doing launches by 2024[1], I'm skeptical that the US will have the legal and organizational flexibility to allow the level of launches that would make this non-niche. The main obstacles to the growth of space travel are not technical or economic, but governmental. I suppose one odd result of 9/11, though, was showing everyone that the thousands of plane flights every day already have essentially the same potential issues as allowing unlimited orbital rocket launches. [1] ...and right now there's, uh, one, doing a few launches per year, I think.
- vdaniuk 12y ago
  Two words only: asteroid mining. This will change the economic parameters of space travel.
nawitus 12y ago
>Will web development still be a thing (I'm doubtful)? If so, what does web development look like in 2024? 2034? Even today, the 'web' is simply a general-purpose software platform (or atleast should be thought of one). It might be helpful to rephrase your question as "will general-purpose software development be as important/exciting/profitable (etc). in 10 to 20 years?". I think there are two major, related and in some respects "opposing" trends. One is using software to make hardware obsolete (virtual reality, augmented reality, telecommuting and converting physical solutions to non-physical solutions). On the hardware front, production of physical products is becoming more and more algorithmic and software-defined. There are also opportunities to decrease manufacturing costs by orders of magnitude (mainly nanotechnology). If we get there, then the utility of simulating reality becomes less and less interesting, if we can just do what we want in reality for sufficiently cheaply.
deleted 12y ago
[deleted]
_puk 12y ago
The joy of the web is in its ease of access, and whether it will still exist depends heavily on your definition of the web. The "internet-of-things" is only just now starting to happen (outside of anything but the main tech centres), and it'll likely take those 10-20 years until everything we live and breath globally is connected. There's a hell of a lot of "disrupting" to be done between now and then, so it's going to remain an exciting focus for many. That said, if HN is anything to go by in general, there are one hell of a lot of extremely smart people currently working to engineer the future of the web, and I can see their focus turning more and more towards the likes of space travel as the next exciting thing to concentrate on.
incision 12y ago
>'The world is going to change drastically in the next 10-20 years. Side discussion related to the article: what to focus on? Will web development still be a thing (I'm doubtful)? If so, what does web development look like in 2024? 2034?' People were lamenting the death of web development since the introduction of Front Page. There will surely be new tools and abstractions and probably some consolidation of jobs, but I see no reason to think the profession will disappear or become unrecognizable. >'It seems like a lot of engineering energy will go into the design and manufacturing of the systems that will manage human life in space.' Eventually perhaps, but I believe that's incredibly far away. There's plenty left to extract, fight over and profit from using traditional methods which are many orders of magnitude cheaper right here. I recall a quote to the effect of 'The price we put on natural resources is equal to the price of procuring the very next ton of it.' I think that's apt. Long before we spend money and apply our technology to mining asteroids we'll spend it on tech to herd [1] and eventually supplant the terrestrial workforce. 1: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/20/pepper-spray-drone-offered-south-african-mines-strike-control http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/20/pepper-spray-dr...
InclinedPlane 12y ago
Web development will still be a thing, but perhaps it will be different than what it looks like today. There's always going to be lots of money in the work of connecting people to one another (either in the fulfillment of social ends or business ends). There will just be that many more ways for people to do so in the future than today, not fewer.

by rglover 12y ago

chatmasta 12y ago

The web is still an early platform, and there are still thousands of opportunities to make significant profits with relatively little startup cost. I think the web is a great place to make your first big chunk of money, and then in 10-20 years you can invest it in more capital-intensive, "world-changing" startups. Or maybe that's just what Elon Musk did. ;)

randallsquared 12y ago

It would be really nice if we were about to get the future as seen from 1965 (space-wise), but I think that's still unlikely. Even if there are as many as TEN "low cost" orbital rocket companies doing launches by 2024[1], I'm skeptical that the US will have the legal and organizational flexibility to allow the level of launches that would make this non-niche. The main obstacles to the growth of space travel are not technical or economic, but governmental. I suppose one odd result of 9/11, though, was showing everyone that the thousands of plane flights every day already have essentially the same potential issues as allowing unlimited orbital rocket launches. [1] ...and right now there's, uh, one, doing a few launches per year, I think.

vdaniuk 12y ago
Two words only: asteroid mining. This will change the economic parameters of space travel.

nawitus 12y ago

>Will web development still be a thing (I'm doubtful)? If so, what does web development look like in 2024? 2034? Even today, the 'web' is simply a general-purpose software platform (or atleast should be thought of one). It might be helpful to rephrase your question as "will general-purpose software development be as important/exciting/profitable (etc). in 10 to 20 years?". I think there are two major, related and in some respects "opposing" trends. One is using software to make hardware obsolete (virtual reality, augmented reality, telecommuting and converting physical solutions to non-physical solutions). On the hardware front, production of physical products is becoming more and more algorithmic and software-defined. There are also opportunities to decrease manufacturing costs by orders of magnitude (mainly nanotechnology). If we get there, then the utility of simulating reality becomes less and less interesting, if we can just do what we want in reality for sufficiently cheaply.

deleted 12y ago

[deleted]

_puk 12y ago

The joy of the web is in its ease of access, and whether it will still exist depends heavily on your definition of the web. The "internet-of-things" is only just now starting to happen (outside of anything but the main tech centres), and it'll likely take those 10-20 years until everything we live and breath globally is connected. There's a hell of a lot of "disrupting" to be done between now and then, so it's going to remain an exciting focus for many. That said, if HN is anything to go by in general, there are one hell of a lot of extremely smart people currently working to engineer the future of the web, and I can see their focus turning more and more towards the likes of space travel as the next exciting thing to concentrate on.

incision 12y ago

>'The world is going to change drastically in the next 10-20 years. Side discussion related to the article: what to focus on? Will web development still be a thing (I'm doubtful)? If so, what does web development look like in 2024? 2034?' People were lamenting the death of web development since the introduction of Front Page. There will surely be new tools and abstractions and probably some consolidation of jobs, but I see no reason to think the profession will disappear or become unrecognizable. >'It seems like a lot of engineering energy will go into the design and manufacturing of the systems that will manage human life in space.' Eventually perhaps, but I believe that's incredibly far away. There's plenty left to extract, fight over and profit from using traditional methods which are many orders of magnitude cheaper right here. I recall a quote to the effect of 'The price we put on natural resources is equal to the price of procuring the very next ton of it.' I think that's apt. Long before we spend money and apply our technology to mining asteroids we'll spend it on tech to herd [1] and eventually supplant the terrestrial workforce. 1: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/20/pepper-spray-drone-offered-south-african-mines-strike-control http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/20/pepper-spray-dr...

InclinedPlane 12y ago

Web development will still be a thing, but perhaps it will be different than what it looks like today. There's always going to be lots of money in the work of connecting people to one another (either in the fulfillment of social ends or business ends). There will just be that many more ways for people to do so in the future than today, not fewer.