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I think you won me over. I'm not a journalist, but I do work as a web analyst for a conglomerate of local newspapers. Not having access to real financials, I've

by darien 17y ago

I think you won me over. I'm not a journalist, but I do work as a web analyst for a conglomerate of local newspapers. Not having access to real financials, I've always convinced myself that there had to be a definitive reason behind the decline of print newspapers, apart from the growth of the internet. But the collapse does seem to be a complex cause. If I may ask, what are your expectations for the newspaper industry in the next 5 years?

jrwoodruff 17y ago
Yea. If there is one definitive cause, I would vote for the internet, or even more broadly, the information revolution. The newspaper model was profitable because of scarcity. Before, say, 1995, the primary information channel was the newspaper. Need to sell used car? Newspaper classifieds. Need to sell a widget to everyone in town? Newspaper display ad. Need to buy a car? newspaper. Need to find out when a city council meeting is? newspaper. Problem is, information isn't scarce anymore. We can do all that and much much more online. Businesses can publish their own information and sell their widgets around the world online, consumers can buy and sell on craigslist, advertisers can advertise cheaply and effectively on AdWords and many other sites... add it all together and the monopoly newspapers held on a relevant and unique information pipeline is gone. They're simply hanging on by the thread of the luddites who haven't jumped to the information era. Yet. As for the next five years I think major newspaper companies will be sold off and split up. Watch for more individual newspapers for sale. Smaller papers might make the transition, particularly smaller independent papers. They've likely maintained local ties, have a good reputation in the community and are able to react to change quickly. The deciding factor for them will be whether or not they react and how. Unfortunately, many of the luddites I mentioned earlier seem to be running these organziations. Otherwise, I think in a year, maybe two, there will be a LOT of heavy competition from very serious local-news web sites. They'll be lean, quick, aggressive and employ some of the reporters currently getting laid off in droves right now. The smart ones will use technology as a tool and competitive edge instead of tripping over it and outsourcing their development. Industry-wide, it'll look more like the 1920s publishing landscape than the 1980s.

by darien 17y ago

jrwoodruff 17y ago

Yea. If there is one definitive cause, I would vote for the internet, or even more broadly, the information revolution. The newspaper model was profitable because of scarcity. Before, say, 1995, the primary information channel was the newspaper. Need to sell used car? Newspaper classifieds. Need to sell a widget to everyone in town? Newspaper display ad. Need to buy a car? newspaper. Need to find out when a city council meeting is? newspaper. Problem is, information isn't scarce anymore. We can do all that and much much more online. Businesses can publish their own information and sell their widgets around the world online, consumers can buy and sell on craigslist, advertisers can advertise cheaply and effectively on AdWords and many other sites... add it all together and the monopoly newspapers held on a relevant and unique information pipeline is gone. They're simply hanging on by the thread of the luddites who haven't jumped to the information era. Yet. As for the next five years I think major newspaper companies will be sold off and split up. Watch for more individual newspapers for sale. Smaller papers might make the transition, particularly smaller independent papers. They've likely maintained local ties, have a good reputation in the community and are able to react to change quickly. The deciding factor for them will be whether or not they react and how. Unfortunately, many of the luddites I mentioned earlier seem to be running these organziations. Otherwise, I think in a year, maybe two, there will be a LOT of heavy competition from very serious local-news web sites. They'll be lean, quick, aggressive and employ some of the reporters currently getting laid off in droves right now. The smart ones will use technology as a tool and competitive edge instead of tripping over it and outsourcing their development. Industry-wide, it'll look more like the 1920s publishing landscape than the 1980s.