4 ms·

The linked data shows 19 murders in the first five months of 2013, 11 murders in the same period in 2014. First, this is very noisy data to make any prediction

The linked data shows 19 murders in the first five months of 2013, 11 murders in the same period in 2014. First, this is very noisy data to make any predictions from. (I guess it's a good thing to have so few murders that it's hard to make generalizations.) March 2014 alone had 5 murders compared to three last year. Second, this isn't a 52.9% drop, even if you exclude May, which makes the drop from 17 to 9. It's a 47.1% drop. This is a very low quality article.

xyzzy123 12y ago
Agreed. I'm pro decriminalization and/or legalization, but a 52% drop in the murder rate due to the legalization of marijuana doesn't even pass the laugh test let alone the kind of analysis people are proposing here.
DatBear 12y ago
They just worded it wrong, really... It should say it's 52.9% of what it was in 2013, meaning it is a 47.1% drop. But linking to data for 5 months and then only using the 4 you want to use to skew numbers seems pretty ridiculous to me. And then in the same page there's data for drug/narcotics violations which isn't even mentioned because it is going up (21% more) even though there are supposedly plummeting marijuana convictions. Also they stated that the crime rate in Denver is going down, yet the data shows the exact opposite. Whole article seems like cherrypicking at its finest.
- danielweber 12y ago
  It's just the first thing I honed in on when I was checking the article. I could start talking about significant digits but I don't think it's necessary to really put more work into this.
  - DatBear 12y ago
    Yea, I just read the article again and it seems more ridiculous than I thought at first glance.
adamors 12y ago
Reminds me of this xkcd: http://www.xkcd.com/925/ http://www.xkcd.com/925/
captainarab 12y ago
Disturbing the peace is up over 1000% YoY for all months except May.
- jessaustin 12y ago
  The last refuge of scoundrel police, "disturbing the peace" and "disorderly conduct". Who cares?
  - tedunangst 12y ago
    If the police have become 10 times more scoundrelly after decriminalization, isn't that something other states should consider when passing similar laws?
    - jessaustin 12y ago
      Certainly! Too many bored cops are not a benefit to the community. Drug legalization laws should definitely have police force reduction measures, whether that's a direct population-ratio requirement or just a diminution of funds.
tootie 12y ago
The notion that decriminalization has caused a drop in murders is specious, anyone claiming that it was cause a spike in serious crime was clearly wrong which is the point he is making. He clearly disclaims that this isn't proof of a long-term correlation.
steveklabnik 12y ago
I think that this _may_ miss the point, though I do appreciate the accuracy. One of the arguments against legalization is that once marijuana is legal, we would see a significant _increase_ in crime.[1] So a __statistically__ insignificant result is not a __politically__ insignificant result. 1: From TFA: ""Expect more crime, more kids using marijuana and pot for sale everywhere," said Douglas County Sheriff David Weaver in 2012."

xyzzy123 12y ago

Agreed. I'm pro decriminalization and/or legalization, but a 52% drop in the murder rate due to the legalization of marijuana doesn't even pass the laugh test let alone the kind of analysis people are proposing here.

DatBear 12y ago

They just worded it wrong, really... It should say it's 52.9% of what it was in 2013, meaning it is a 47.1% drop. But linking to data for 5 months and then only using the 4 you want to use to skew numbers seems pretty ridiculous to me. And then in the same page there's data for drug/narcotics violations which isn't even mentioned because it is going up (21% more) even though there are supposedly plummeting marijuana convictions. Also they stated that the crime rate in Denver is going down, yet the data shows the exact opposite. Whole article seems like cherrypicking at its finest.

danielweber 12y ago
It's just the first thing I honed in on when I was checking the article. I could start talking about significant digits but I don't think it's necessary to really put more work into this.
- DatBear 12y ago
  Yea, I just read the article again and it seems more ridiculous than I thought at first glance.

adamors 12y ago

Reminds me of this xkcd: http://www.xkcd.com/925/ http://www.xkcd.com/925/

captainarab 12y ago

Disturbing the peace is up over 1000% YoY for all months except May.

jessaustin 12y ago
The last refuge of scoundrel police, "disturbing the peace" and "disorderly conduct". Who cares?
- tedunangst 12y ago
  If the police have become 10 times more scoundrelly after decriminalization, isn't that something other states should consider when passing similar laws?
  - jessaustin 12y ago
    Certainly! Too many bored cops are not a benefit to the community. Drug legalization laws should definitely have police force reduction measures, whether that's a direct population-ratio requirement or just a diminution of funds.

tootie 12y ago

The notion that decriminalization has caused a drop in murders is specious, anyone claiming that it was cause a spike in serious crime was clearly wrong which is the point he is making. He clearly disclaims that this isn't proof of a long-term correlation.

steveklabnik 12y ago

I think that this _may_ miss the point, though I do appreciate the accuracy. One of the arguments against legalization is that once marijuana is legal, we would see a significant _increase_ in crime.[1] So a __statistically__ insignificant result is not a __politically__ insignificant result. 1: From TFA: ""Expect more crime, more kids using marijuana and pot for sale everywhere," said Douglas County Sheriff David Weaver in 2012."