4 ms·

The second point seems like it is a stretch. Of course, crime rate of illegal marijuana dropped when it was legalized. What I'd really like to see if related

The second point seems like it is a stretch. Of course, crime rate of illegal marijuana dropped when it was legalized. What I'd really like to see if related crime has dropped or increased - such as DUI, Theft, Assault, etc. --Edit-- Thanks all for pointing out the piece I skimmed over :) ...However I am still very curious to smaller offenses and misdemeanors. It will be years before we see good statistics, but those elements will be politically crucial in pushing for wider adoption.

steveklabnik 12y ago
> According to government data, the Denver city- and > county-wide murder rate has dropped 52.9% since recreational > marijuana use was legalized in January. This is compared > to the same period last year, a time frame encompassing Jan. 1 > through April 30.
- danielweber 12y ago
  Their math is wrong. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7977655 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7977655
  - lotsofmangos 12y ago
    Reducing the 52% drop to a 47% drop doesn't change the point much. edit - though I agree that the data isn't good enough to really support any conclusions yet. That would take about ten years and several different cities.
    - danielweber 12y ago
      Besides a failure to understand which number is which is a percentage change, the data they link to shows a 24% increase in crimes against people. I don't know why anyone thought this was a good enough article to upvote. Someone out there is working on a good article about the effects of legalization on crime rates. This isn't it.
      - lotsofmangos 12y ago
        To be honest, beyond the obvious fall in weed related arrests I wouldn't expect legalisation of the stuff to have much of an effect on crime either way above the background noise level, at least in the short term. You might be able to tease something out with a long term epidemiological study, but that will take a lot of time and a lot of data points. I could be wrong but I suspect that reality will be stubbornly a lot more boring on this particular topic than either the doomsayers or the evangelists will like. On a long term, I could see some real and lasting benefits from the reduced arrests and incarcerations and the social identity effects of dissociating the use of the drug from crime.
pavanky 12y ago
> According to government data, the Denver city- and county-wide murder rate has dropped 52.9% since recreational marijuana use was legalized in January. This is compared to the same period last year, a time frame encompassing Jan. 1 through April 30. This was the second paragraph of the crime section.
- mertd 12y ago
  Click through the link provided to see the raw data. Murder figure looks a little cherry picked. It went from 17 to 9. It was a very cold winter on top of that. Temperature is highly corralled with crime.
- mlevy 12y ago
  According to the Denver city data, there were 19 murders in the Denver city area through May last year, and 11 this year. That's better, but implying that to be a statistically significant phenomenon related to marijuana legalization seems intellectually dishonest. Especially when the overall crime numbers for more common crimes don't seem to show any consistent patterns. http://www.denvergov.org/Portals/720/documents/statistics/2014/XCitywide_Reported_Offenses_2014.pdf http://www.denvergov.org/Portals/720/documents/statistics/20...
- jws 12y ago
  That statistic is cherry picked from a list of 36 at http://www.denvergov.org/Portals/720/documents/statistics/2014/XCitywide_Reported_Offenses_2014.pdf http://www.denvergov.org/Portals/720/documents/statistics/20... and has a relatively low sample size. If you can't find a statistic to cherry pick for your argument in a list of 36 you have a very bad argument. • Arson has doubled since legalization! Bunch of flaming stoners. • Embezzlement is down 88%! Who knew this was all society needed to fortify people's fiduciary responsibilities.
- Shivetya 12y ago
  I wonder how much of that was due to the weather? How much more severe was this winter compared to last year?
deleted 12y ago
[deleted]
lotsofmangos 12y ago
The second point included this: According to government data, the Denver city- and county-wide murder rate has dropped 52.9% since recreational marijuana use was legalized in January. This is compared to the same period last year, a time frame encompassing Jan. 1 through April 30.
otoburb 12y ago
On the one hand, it was a stretch to frame the benefit as a "drop in crime". On the other hand, the secondary benefits flowing from the drop were worth touting, namely the first-order cost and time savings of processing arrests, running through the court system and incarceration.
danielweber 12y ago
http://www.denvergov.org/Portals/720/documents/statistics/2014/XCitywide_Reported_Offenses_2014.pdf http://www.denvergov.org/Portals/720/documents/statistics/20... Crimes against persons: up about 24% Crimes against property: down about 10% Crimes against society: up about 23% which includes narcotics crimes up by 21% All other crimes: up over 150% No one should be trying to read data out of this noise, but if you are, it's not looking good for any legalization argument.
- jws 12y ago
  Over half of the overall increase comes from a huge increase in "Disorderly Conduct/Disturbing the Peace" (> 6x), and "Criminal Trespass" (> 3x). Those two categories plus a similar growth buried in "All Other Offenses" accounts for essentially all of the growth in reported crimes. There is probably a story there somewhere.
  - _archon_ 12y ago
    I agree, and I suspect that it's likely "a cop stops $unsavory_character and wants to charge him with something; as his possession of marijuana is no longer illegal, he must choose something more contrived."
    - jws 12y ago
      Drug violations are also up slightly and the increase from the three named groups is about double the previous year's drug violations.
TallGuyShort 12y ago
>> Of course, crime rate of illegal marijuana dropped when it was legalized. I think this is a more important point than either you or the author realize. Yes it seems obvious, but was it worth calling marijuana users criminals in the first place? If you stop arresting all these people, and negative side effects don't increase, why were they getting arrested to begin with? Getting arrested is a huge deal and impacts your future job prospects, not to mention the short term aspects of possibly being jailed, etc. If that all happens before legalization, but not after legalization, can we really justify the seemingly arbitrary consequences in these people's lives? All other things being equal, getting a bunch of people arrested and calling them criminals is not necessarily better than leaving them be and calling them normal.

steveklabnik 12y ago

> According to government data, the Denver city- and > county-wide murder rate has dropped 52.9% since recreational > marijuana use was legalized in January. This is compared > to the same period last year, a time frame encompassing Jan. 1 > through April 30.

danielweber 12y ago
Their math is wrong. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7977655 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7977655
- lotsofmangos 12y ago
  Reducing the 52% drop to a 47% drop doesn't change the point much. edit - though I agree that the data isn't good enough to really support any conclusions yet. That would take about ten years and several different cities.
  - danielweber 12y ago
    Besides a failure to understand which number is which is a percentage change, the data they link to shows a 24% increase in crimes against people. I don't know why anyone thought this was a good enough article to upvote. Someone out there is working on a good article about the effects of legalization on crime rates. This isn't it.
    - lotsofmangos 12y ago
      To be honest, beyond the obvious fall in weed related arrests I wouldn't expect legalisation of the stuff to have much of an effect on crime either way above the background noise level, at least in the short term. You might be able to tease something out with a long term epidemiological study, but that will take a lot of time and a lot of data points. I could be wrong but I suspect that reality will be stubbornly a lot more boring on this particular topic than either the doomsayers or the evangelists will like. On a long term, I could see some real and lasting benefits from the reduced arrests and incarcerations and the social identity effects of dissociating the use of the drug from crime.

pavanky 12y ago

> According to government data, the Denver city- and county-wide murder rate has dropped 52.9% since recreational marijuana use was legalized in January. This is compared to the same period last year, a time frame encompassing Jan. 1 through April 30. This was the second paragraph of the crime section.

mertd 12y ago
Click through the link provided to see the raw data. Murder figure looks a little cherry picked. It went from 17 to 9. It was a very cold winter on top of that. Temperature is highly corralled with crime.
mlevy 12y ago
According to the Denver city data, there were 19 murders in the Denver city area through May last year, and 11 this year. That's better, but implying that to be a statistically significant phenomenon related to marijuana legalization seems intellectually dishonest. Especially when the overall crime numbers for more common crimes don't seem to show any consistent patterns. http://www.denvergov.org/Portals/720/documents/statistics/2014/XCitywide_Reported_Offenses_2014.pdf http://www.denvergov.org/Portals/720/documents/statistics/20...
jws 12y ago
That statistic is cherry picked from a list of 36 at http://www.denvergov.org/Portals/720/documents/statistics/2014/XCitywide_Reported_Offenses_2014.pdf http://www.denvergov.org/Portals/720/documents/statistics/20... and has a relatively low sample size. If you can't find a statistic to cherry pick for your argument in a list of 36 you have a very bad argument. • Arson has doubled since legalization! Bunch of flaming stoners. • Embezzlement is down 88%! Who knew this was all society needed to fortify people's fiduciary responsibilities.
Shivetya 12y ago
I wonder how much of that was due to the weather? How much more severe was this winter compared to last year?

deleted 12y ago

[deleted]

lotsofmangos 12y ago

The second point included this: According to government data, the Denver city- and county-wide murder rate has dropped 52.9% since recreational marijuana use was legalized in January. This is compared to the same period last year, a time frame encompassing Jan. 1 through April 30.

otoburb 12y ago

On the one hand, it was a stretch to frame the benefit as a "drop in crime". On the other hand, the secondary benefits flowing from the drop were worth touting, namely the first-order cost and time savings of processing arrests, running through the court system and incarceration.

danielweber 12y ago

http://www.denvergov.org/Portals/720/documents/statistics/2014/XCitywide_Reported_Offenses_2014.pdf http://www.denvergov.org/Portals/720/documents/statistics/20... Crimes against persons: up about 24% Crimes against property: down about 10% Crimes against society: up about 23% which includes narcotics crimes up by 21% All other crimes: up over 150% No one should be trying to read data out of this noise, but if you are, it's not looking good for any legalization argument.

jws 12y ago
Over half of the overall increase comes from a huge increase in "Disorderly Conduct/Disturbing the Peace" (> 6x), and "Criminal Trespass" (> 3x). Those two categories plus a similar growth buried in "All Other Offenses" accounts for essentially all of the growth in reported crimes. There is probably a story there somewhere.
- _archon_ 12y ago
  I agree, and I suspect that it's likely "a cop stops $unsavory_character and wants to charge him with something; as his possession of marijuana is no longer illegal, he must choose something more contrived."
  - jws 12y ago
    Drug violations are also up slightly and the increase from the three named groups is about double the previous year's drug violations.

TallGuyShort 12y ago

>> Of course, crime rate of illegal marijuana dropped when it was legalized. I think this is a more important point than either you or the author realize. Yes it seems obvious, but was it worth calling marijuana users criminals in the first place? If you stop arresting all these people, and negative side effects don't increase, why were they getting arrested to begin with? Getting arrested is a huge deal and impacts your future job prospects, not to mention the short term aspects of possibly being jailed, etc. If that all happens before legalization, but not after legalization, can we really justify the seemingly arbitrary consequences in these people's lives? All other things being equal, getting a bunch of people arrested and calling them criminals is not necessarily better than leaving them be and calling them normal.