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An analysis of Lionel Messi
- deleted 12y ago[deleted]
- talles 12y agoJust a curiosity: the word Ronaldo appears 27 times in the article. edit: Whoa, why the downvote? I'm justing pointing it out that is impossible to talk about Messi without talking about CR7 (and vice-versa).
- omnibrain 12y ago"Ronaldo" is one of the things that confuses me, as an occasional spectator, the most. In every generation there seems to be a person called "Ronaldo". Most of them played for Brasil, but the most recent one is a portuguese player. For me it's difficult to get who people are talking about when they mention "Ronaldo".
- talles 12y agoThere are 3 Ronaldos, all of them was at some point the best player of world (awarded by FIFA inclusively). The first, Ronaldo Nazario de Lima, started his the career known as Ronaldinho, but droped soon later to just Ronaldo. Idol of Brazil's 2002 winning. Transvestite scandals. Famous for performances with Brazil and Real Madrid. A.K.A. as "phenomenon". http://bit.ly/1pHIQH7 http://bit.ly/1pHIQH7. The second, the well-known Ronaldinho, is most remembered for Barcelona, but also played for Milan. Not well known for it's performance with the national team, unlike the first. It still an idol across the globe even nowadays. Plays for Atletico Mineiro (my team :D :D). http://bit.ly/1mGDCmT http://bit.ly/1mGDCmT. The third, the portuguese one of the list, is the most recent one. Despite being Cristiano Ronaldo, we sometimes short to just Ronaldo since it's the "relevant" one today. Also known as CR7 (7 is his shirt number). Started the career in a astonishing way in Manchester United, he was a kid that got a place in a very old and experienced team. Nowadays an idol at Real Madrid. http://bit.ly/1i5uUSr http://bit.ly/1i5uUSr.
- jamesbritt 12y agoAlso known as CR7 (7 is his shirt number). So, funny thing ... When I first saw "CR7" I immediately thought it was some sort of abbreviation, like I18N, and assumed it meant "CR" followed by 7 letters. So that's apparently how my brain works.
- tekacs 12y agoIn fairness in this case your intuition does match with his name (CR I S T I A N O, CR7).
- philwelch 12y agoRonaldo Nazario de Lima was known as Ronaldinho in the beginning of his career to distinguish him from yet another Ronaldo, Ronaldo Rodrigues de Jesus, now known as "Ronaldão": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronaldo_Rodrigues_de_Jesus http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronaldo_Rodrigues_de_Jesus So at one point, Ronaldo Rodrigues de Jesus was "Ronaldo", Ronaldo Nazario de Lima was "Ronaldinho", and Ronaldo de Assis Moreira was "Ronaldinho Gaucho". Cristiano's explosion onto the scene at Manchester United was remarkable but "astonishing" is a bit of a stretch, since they've always given chances to younger players to work their way into the first team and many of them have impressed, including David Beckham (who Cristiano Ronaldo replaced), Paul Scholes, Ryan Giggs, and more recently Adnan Januzaj.
- endersshadow 12y agoJust so folks know, nicknames are very common in Brazil, and formal names are rarely used. That's why you have lots of overlap and whatnot. Slate did a quick primer on this before the start of the World Cup in 2006: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/explainer/2006/06/why_ronaldinho_has_no_last_name.html http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/explainer/20...
- deleted 12y ago[deleted]
- martin_bech 12y agoWhile not strictly PC, in euro footbal circles we split the three into Fat Ronaldo, Ronaldinho and Ronaldo (Christinao Ronaldo). Fat Ronaldo because he got fat when he retired, Ronaldinho because thats what his shirt said when he played for FC Barcelona, and just Ronaldo (Christiano Ronaldo), because he is the current one.
- celebdor 12y agoHe got fat much before he retired. The last three seasons at Madrid he was overweight but still the most explosive player in the box.
- oblio 12y agoHe was a sight to behold. At least 5 kilos overweight (as a professional football player!) and he could dash in front of defenders in front of him. I saw him 2-3 meters behind a defender during a 10-15 meter sprint where he ended 2-3 meters in front of the defender at the end. Really explosive!
- BSousa 12y agoI remember watching him play. His free kicks/long range shots were amazing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGbjmD3btJg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGbjmD3btJg
- Datsundere 12y agoThat's Roberto Carlos who plays midfield I think you wanted this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8bZhNBQktQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8bZhNBQktQ
- gokhan 12y agoCarlos actually plays left back.
- muxxa 12y ago
- yen223 12y agoThat beautiful pass to Angel di Maria in the latest match against Switzerland went a long way towards proving that.
- swah 12y agoToday's match!
- devindotcom 12y agoI love watching extreme outliers in play - its one of the main reasons I watch. Guys like Messi, Jordan, Ali are so high above the standard (and often so different) that they elevate the whole sport just by taking part.
- rjtavares 12y agoWe have the rare opportunity of watching two top 10 forwards of all time at their prime at the same damn time. One of those sport rivalries to tell your grandchildren about.
- rohit89 12y agoSimilar thing in tennis with Federer and Nadal. Nadal's stats on clay is incredible. He's lost just 11 matches and won 270 odd in the last 9 years.
- NolF 12y agoI think an even better example would be Nadal v Djokovic on the 2012 Australian Open final. According to Nadal the best game he ever played and consolidated Djokovic as one of the greats. And you could see how one lifted the other up to do better and be better. Such an amazing game. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Australian_Open_%E2%80%93_Men's_Singles_final http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Australian_Open_%E2%80%93_...
- apaprocki 12y agoIt strikes me as odd that half the graphs do not have clearly labeled axes. I'd expect all of them to be labeled or none of them -- but some of them? The first one struck me as odd especially since the scales are roughly the same.
- mAritz 12y agoFor the first one you can figure it out based on the text before it. But I agree, it annoyed me too.
- tagawa 12y agoIt would also be better to have other colours for the scatter plots rather than dark grey and light grey - it's difficult to tell the difference. Great data analysis and explanation of what makes him great, though.
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- deleted 12y ago[deleted]
- Pxtl 12y agoTimely since the Switzerland game just happened and Messi only got an assist. The Swiss goaltender was impressive, especially compared to the Argenine goalie who made a few bad fumbles that could have been goals with slightly different luck.
- kareemm 12y agoMessi assisted the only goal of the game with a beautiful pass. There were 2 minutes remaining in extra time when the goal was scored. Seems right in line with the outlier theme of the article to me.
- usaphp 12y agoSuperb! Is there any way to see who is who behind those dots on charts, very interesting.
- guard-of-terra 12y agoMaybe he's a living ballistical computer? Or has one built in? I'm actually curious whether there are objective reasons why he's so good.
- oblio 12y agoThe interesting thing watching him play is that you attribute most of his game play to speed and balance due to his low center of gravity. I never thought he was that accurate because his motion when shooting doesn't seem very elegant. I take that back after seeing this data!
- samsonradu 12y agoI think around 80% it is due to a lifetime of hard work in a perfect environment (FC Barcelona's Academy) surrounded by the best people in the game. The other 20% may come from his psychological abilities, being able to reach very high levels of concentration at peak moments. Notice that he is not a very active and working player throughout the whole match, instead he shines through certain moments. Some people also related this to the Asperger's Syndrome. http://www.reddit.com/r/aspergers/comments/1m17yp/alltime_great_soccer_player_lionel_messi_was/ http://www.reddit.com/r/aspergers/comments/1m17yp/alltime_gr...
- philwelch 12y agoLionel Messi was already known as an outlier as a young boy in Argentina. The psychological abilities and lifetime of training at Barca simply molded something that was already there, but there are hundreds of other footballers who trained at Barca the same time Messi did and none of them are Messi. Some of them are very very good, but none of them are Messi.
- samsonradu 12y agoTrue, it's the 20% that makes him better than players like let's say Cesc Fabregas (same football academy) who is a top-level player but kind of lacks the magic. Also note that there is a thin layer between a very good player and a great one, sometimes measured in miliseconds and centimeters but the output is fantastic! :)
- foobarqux 12y agoA deluge of data but little insight. What am I supposed to take away from this article besides the well-known fact that Messi is one of the best soccer players in the world?
- bradleyjg 12y agoSometimes it can be hard for non-fans to realize just how good a superstar is. When I was 10 or 11 in the early 90s, I had heard of Micheal Jordan -- everyone had heard of Michael Jordan -- but I wasn't much of a basketball fan. My older brother joined a fantasy basketball league, and since I was the computer guy in the family he asked me to make a spreadsheet designed to help with the draft. We put in all the stats from the prior year and calculated how many fantasy points each player would have gotten. It was only when I sorted the chart and saw how much of an outlier MJ was I realized why he was such a big deal.
- notahacker 12y agoThe corollary of that argument is that it's also hard for statisticians to disentangle individual brilliance from being the focal point of a team whose other parts are also massively better than their average opponent. Of course, you have to be a truly exceptional player for Barcelona to build their team around you for several years, but I still doubt Messi stats would stand out quite so far above other top European forwards if he'd been, say, a winger for 2010-14 Liverpool instead. It would be interesting to see how well the statistical advantages for Messi and Ronaldo hold up in matches which are relatively even contests (internationals, late stage Champions League and El Clasico) as opposed to their clubs' routine thrashings of weaker La Liga teams. I'd expect the goals (and shooting efficiency) to remain high but some of the other advantages might not be quite so evident. The article does cover his goals and assists contribution for his recent World Cup performances, but that's one stat and an acknowledged small sample.
- Shorel 12y agoIt would have been great to include older data to be able to compare Messi to Maradona and Pelé.
- DAddYE 12y agoEven so, the today's football/soccer is way different than before, much more raw speed, body weight, different balls etc...
- will_work4tears 12y agoI found this article to be quite interesting, even though I do not follow soccer/football (fútbol?). I find this sort of data analytic to be fascinating. It almost seems like art, what data sets to pull from, how to compare it, etc. How would one, other than brushing up on statistics, get into this sort of field? It seems much more interesting than basic web development.
- rjtavares 12y agoCoursera has a Data Science specialization track by Johns Hopkins university. That would be a good place to start.
- pyotrgalois 12y agoIf you love football or fútbol (I am from Argentina) you should watch this video called "Messi is a dog": http://youtu.be/pZocxOQUHzs http://youtu.be/pZocxOQUHzs A really beautiful description of how Messi plays. I almost cried the first time I watched it.
- justicezyx 12y agohmm... It is widely known that players are now must more protected by rules than 5 years ago. The fouls on Messis would be considered too gentle for Ronaldo (not C. Ronaldo)...
- greg5green 12y agoMessi is a great example of what can happen if you run through the fouls instead of intentionally falling down. Of course, not many people have his ball skills and I bet his low center of gravity helps him stay upright. On the other hand, it's a great example of why guys do flop -- refs are too bad to call things as they should.
- camperman 12y agoAwesome video. The compilation he refers to is this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RD9Zc2kwpI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RD9Zc2kwpI. As a Barca fan I remember the very early compilations. Personally I think that if you grab another player's clothing or impede him with your arms or hands while he has possession, it should be an instant red card.
- deleted 12y ago[deleted]
- blablablaat 12y ago"This content is not available in your location." Fuck off.
- talles 12y agoWhat would be the reasoning behind this?? When we are talking about big downloads or video streaming makes sense, to save bandwidth (I'm not saying I agree with!!). But a blog article?
- silvertab 12y agoI think he's referring to the video at the top which is unavailable (for me anyway, in Canada). The rest of the article however is available.
- aptwebapps 12y agohttp://gfycat.com/MessyOffbeatAsianelephant http://gfycat.com/MessyOffbeatAsianelephant Tbh, it's great goal but hardly an outlier. There have been many as good already this World Cup. Nor is it the type of goal that you only see from Messi.
- gejjaxxita 12y agoI think the primary point is that Messi scores goals from that position an extremely high (12%) proportion of times.
- infinitebattery 12y agoI really need to see an analysis of Tim Howard and his blocking ability now.
- aptwebapps 12y agohttp://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/tim-howard-lost-but-he-just-had-the-best-match-of-the-world-cup/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/tim-howard-lost-but-he-ju...
- hmart 12y agoThe World Cup star is not Messi, is James Rodriguez.
- gone35 12y agoAs the primary striker for such a juggernaut, it can be hard to detangle Messi's goal-scoring prowess from Barcelona's general offensive dominance. (...) I think this criticism is fair -- and I found it intriguing enough to look into the matter myself. (...) By now I've studied nearly every aspect of Messi's game, down to a touch-by-touch level: his shooting and scoring production; where he shoots from; how often he sets up his own shots; what kind of kicks he uses to make those shots; his ability to take on defenders; how accurate his passes are; the kind of passes he makes; how often he creates scoring chances; how often those chances lead to goals; even how his defensive playmaking compares to other high-volume shooters. Yet none of that really addresses the main potential confounder the author acknowledges: most measurable aspects of a player's game --not only (assisted) goals but also even touch-by-touch, more seemingly 'individual' skill measures such as passing success-- are arguably heavily conditioned on the ability of the rest of the team. (Today, for instance, Messi didn't score against Switzerland, and the team was goalless for 117 mins until a tepid 1-0 in extra time (edit: but assisted by Messi! my apologies)... go figure). A 'matched' design would have been much more appropriate, but I realize it's hard to do sound data analysis on a journalist's deadline.
- mladenkovacevic 12y agoToday, for instance, Messi didn't score against Switzerland, and the team was goalless for 117 mins until a tepid 1-0 in extra time... go figure Except that goal would not have happened were it not for Messi. A great player makes all the other players a little bit better too.
- jorleif 12y agoExcellent point, but would you care to explain how you would match subjects in this case? They should be comparable pre-something, but what would that something be?
- gone35 12y agoPerhaps a superficially plausible ignorability assumption would be that, during rapid breakouts from the defensive zone, striker skill would strongly depend on the midfield's ability to open up favorably, which in turn would depend somehow on the defense's overall (relative) skill; so that, via d-separation, striker skill and defense's relative skill would be independent conditional on midfield's skill during breakouts. It would definitely not be trivial!
- kimonos 12y agoInteresting read!
- Bulkington 12y agoStrictly a casual 'soccer' fan in US, but here are a few problems for adoption of the game--again, as an American sports fan, journalist and media manager. And please, help me understand (and I promise not get into the usual 'no action,' 'too many drama queens' objections--although it is confusing when a player falls down like he's been stabbed, and the player who stabbed him also suddenly falls down.) Messi is a freakish talent, but how many of his exceptional maneuvers translate into goals? I don't know Messi's ratio, but would Michael Jordan's talent have meant so much if style points didn't also show up on the scoreboard? We make fun of baseball because a successful batting average is three in ten (.300) and .400 is god-like. Messi's miracles pay off, sure, but -- for the casual American fan -- the effort needs to ring the bell or it doesn't count. Top level competition (Euro leagues) is a completely different game (and vastly superior) to what the kids play here, or even school boys and universities. It's like pro baseball vs. weekend softball. And very few moms and dads, even a full generation into 'the soccer generation' know much or care. Americans won't go 'all in' if they can't win. Belgium: 11 million people? That's Tennessee and Alabama. The day an SEC team can go to Europe and compete, that's when the US has become a soccer power. I love the World Cup--once every four years. Those guys are tremendous athletes with freakish skills. But I still don't care. I leave the broadcast on for background noise, like golf or NASCAR or CNN. Please HN, correct me if I'm wrong.
- nnethercote 12y ago> Messi is a freakish talent, but how many of his exceptional maneuvers translate into goals? Did you read the article? It answers that question about eleven different ways.
- e7mac 12y agoYour thinking that 'the effort needs to ring the bell or it doesn't count' is a little short sighted in my opinion. It'd be easy to make the scores higher if that was the big need of football. They could just make the goals larger. Sport is a fun mix of probabilities. The fact that goals are hard to score means that each goal is therefore valued higher, and celebrated a lot more. Do you experience the same thrill watching a goal in football vs a normal 2-pointer in basketball? Definitely not. In addition, goals being a rare event means that the underdogs have a higher chance of victory. If the scores were easy to make, the better team would much more frequently score and therefore win. Since goals are rare, with a combination of one lucky moment and some heroics from your keeper/ the better opponent having a bad day, underdogs frequently win the game- which makes it exciting for all kinds of fans. As for leaving games on in the background - it's a lot more to do with personal preference than the absolute value of the sport. I watch all 90 mins of soccer but frequently leave american football on in the background as it has so many breaks.
- megablast 12y ago> In their Group F World Cup match late last month, Argentina and Iran were still deadlocked after 90 minutes. With the game in stoppage time and the score tied at 0-0, Lionel Messi took the ball near the right corner of the penalty area, held it for a moment, then broke left, found his seam, took his strike and curled it in from 29 yards. So he didn't score a goal for the first 90 minutes, or he just wasn't on the field? If he is so good, why did it take him 90 minutes to score the first goal?
- manojlds 12y agoOne guy doesn't make a team.
- megablast 12y agoOh for sure. But it is funny thing to highlight the great goal he got in the last few minutes, when he didn't get a goal for the first 89 or so. Soccer is a funny game though.
- warrenmcwin 12y ago"...found his seam..." Ever heard of the chink in the armor? It's more impressive to persevere for 89 minutes and score in the 90th entirely unassisted. Watch him play and try to call his "funny soccer" anything but impressive.
- anuraj 12y agoMaradona and Messi are two different kind of players from two different eras. Maradona is a mid fielder who can control the game from the centre, whereas Messi is forward who excels in striking and last minute opportunity creation. Perhaps greatness of Maradona may be compared to Zidane. It will not be fair to judge a midfielder on the number of goals scored - midfielder is a strategist - which Maradona was.
- philwelch 12y agoMaradona and Messi are both natural #10's.
- minusSeven 12y agoThe data and the analysis are excellent but I don't think people should rely completely on data to make the analysis as sometimes the data can be misleading.
- tauslu 12y agoThis is the most dataful soccer analysis that I have ever seen. In US sports (NBA, NFL, MLB), stats are very much used and audience are well aware of them but in soccer (I follow closely premier league, la liga), no such data exist or at least it did not seem so. Of course, one reason soccer is less dataful is the amount of luck involved in the game. So much underdog achievement is happening which is probably why the game is very much liked (there was a great link that I cannot find which shows the weight of luck of per sport (soccer is being close to the top)) Last comment about the study, given time, they could have considered defense aspect