4 ms·

This actually makes me want to jump in / its a indicator to me that your not that far behind in the game (getting in early, with the android system) - - I real

by redorb 17y ago

This actually makes me want to jump in / its a indicator to me that your not that far behind in the game (getting in early, with the android system) - - I really think it 3-5 years android will be what apple is today; I'm not saying to wait around - but perhaps plan for it.

lurch_mojoff 17y ago
You, however, do not address either what makes you think that or where would Apple be in you scenario. As thing are today, there is nothing to suggest that Apple are losing steam or that Android is gaining such at a higher rate. It is true in probably every respect of the two platforms, but it is especially true when it comes to the respective app stores. So in that case my prognosmification would be that, even if you're right and Android is where the iPhone is today in a few years, Apple's platform would have grown too by then, maybe even proportionally to Android. Which does not mean one should not develop applications for Android or that they shouldn't "plan for it". But expecting that there is explosive growth just around the corner is absolutely unrealistic.
- alex_c 17y ago
  There IS explosive growth just around the corner in terms of Android device models. Of course, this doesn't necessarily translate into explosive growth in terms of users.
  - joubert 17y ago
    Good lordy. Well, hopefully it isn't blamed on users' relationship issues.
  - thismat 17y ago
    If they would bring the HTC Hero in to multiple providers they would see a pretty significant jump in users I would imagine. Although, that new Nokia looks pretty great, I might be switching to it if T-Mobile doesn't end up getting the Hero, bad choice ignoring the Hero for the one they used for the mytouch.
enjo 17y ago
I absolutely think your correct. I fully expect Android to eclipse the iPhone in market share within the next 3 years. I say that with a couple of caveats, however: 1. Google has to get serious about competing with Apple. They need to adopt multi-touch, and they need to do it NOW. I get there is a legal question around it, but that didn't stop them from aggressively pursuing YouTube. 2. Google needs to show that they're serious. The app-store for Android is a mess (as the article clearly articulates). There is a lot of money to be made there, but Google needs to step up to the plate and make that a vibrant eco-system. They need to be Microsoft to Apples..well.. Apple. Be more developer friendly, more marketing friendly, and let the openness of their system eclipse the closed off world of the iPhone. If they do that, Android should be a huge win. They've built the technology. Just as S60 dominates the smart phone market today, Android is similarly positioned. It can support a lot of price points and a lot of different form factors. That variety allows for a huge number of devices to collectively drive that share through the roof. Since the device is more open, it creates an environment for developers to build truly killer apps that utilize the full system in a much more advanced way. Again, that is predicated on Googles ability to bring a truly robust store to their phones. If they do, that further increases Android's viability and gives them a marked advantage over the iPhone. Google is REALLY close with this.. they just need to take the next step.
- jacquesm 17y ago
  > but that didn't stop them from aggressively pursuing YouTube. That's true, but Hurley and Chen + VCs were not going to put up much of a fight against one of the few parties on the planet that could have bought them out. When it comes to legal stamina and clout Apple on the other hand is a different kettle of fish, if Google and Apple ever go head to head on something like this there will be two winners (the lawyers and Microsoft).
- barrkel 17y ago
  I don't think supporting a lot of form factors and "price points" (i.e. hardware capability) is necessarily a recipe for success. The baseline hardware has to be pretty capable, e.g. including a 3D graphics chip, generous memory, ample storage, etc. The phone can't be too cheap, or apps will run on some Android installations and not on others, leading to platform fragmentation. If anything, something like Vista's machine performance score could be implemented, with the lowest-scoring element being the total score.
philwelch 17y ago
Android Market has been out since October 2008, and Android G1 has been out since then as well. By month 10, App Store was doing better than this--hell, by day 1, App Store was doing better than this. That's some pretty slow growth.
jacoblyles 17y ago
It's interesting that you view near-zero revenue as a positive sign.

by redorb 17y ago

lurch_mojoff 17y ago

You, however, do not address either what makes you think that or where would Apple be in you scenario. As thing are today, there is nothing to suggest that Apple are losing steam or that Android is gaining such at a higher rate. It is true in probably every respect of the two platforms, but it is especially true when it comes to the respective app stores. So in that case my prognosmification would be that, even if you're right and Android is where the iPhone is today in a few years, Apple's platform would have grown too by then, maybe even proportionally to Android. Which does not mean one should not develop applications for Android or that they shouldn't "plan for it". But expecting that there is explosive growth just around the corner is absolutely unrealistic.

alex_c 17y ago
There IS explosive growth just around the corner in terms of Android device models. Of course, this doesn't necessarily translate into explosive growth in terms of users.
- joubert 17y ago
  Good lordy. Well, hopefully it isn't blamed on users' relationship issues.
- thismat 17y ago
  If they would bring the HTC Hero in to multiple providers they would see a pretty significant jump in users I would imagine. Although, that new Nokia looks pretty great, I might be switching to it if T-Mobile doesn't end up getting the Hero, bad choice ignoring the Hero for the one they used for the mytouch.

enjo 17y ago

I absolutely think your correct. I fully expect Android to eclipse the iPhone in market share within the next 3 years. I say that with a couple of caveats, however: 1. Google has to get serious about competing with Apple. They need to adopt multi-touch, and they need to do it NOW. I get there is a legal question around it, but that didn't stop them from aggressively pursuing YouTube. 2. Google needs to show that they're serious. The app-store for Android is a mess (as the article clearly articulates). There is a lot of money to be made there, but Google needs to step up to the plate and make that a vibrant eco-system. They need to be Microsoft to Apples..well.. Apple. Be more developer friendly, more marketing friendly, and let the openness of their system eclipse the closed off world of the iPhone. If they do that, Android should be a huge win. They've built the technology. Just as S60 dominates the smart phone market today, Android is similarly positioned. It can support a lot of price points and a lot of different form factors. That variety allows for a huge number of devices to collectively drive that share through the roof. Since the device is more open, it creates an environment for developers to build truly killer apps that utilize the full system in a much more advanced way. Again, that is predicated on Googles ability to bring a truly robust store to their phones. If they do, that further increases Android's viability and gives them a marked advantage over the iPhone. Google is REALLY close with this.. they just need to take the next step.

jacquesm 17y ago
> but that didn't stop them from aggressively pursuing YouTube. That's true, but Hurley and Chen + VCs were not going to put up much of a fight against one of the few parties on the planet that could have bought them out. When it comes to legal stamina and clout Apple on the other hand is a different kettle of fish, if Google and Apple ever go head to head on something like this there will be two winners (the lawyers and Microsoft).
barrkel 17y ago
I don't think supporting a lot of form factors and "price points" (i.e. hardware capability) is necessarily a recipe for success. The baseline hardware has to be pretty capable, e.g. including a 3D graphics chip, generous memory, ample storage, etc. The phone can't be too cheap, or apps will run on some Android installations and not on others, leading to platform fragmentation. If anything, something like Vista's machine performance score could be implemented, with the lowest-scoring element being the total score.

philwelch 17y ago

Android Market has been out since October 2008, and Android G1 has been out since then as well. By month 10, App Store was doing better than this--hell, by day 1, App Store was doing better than this. That's some pretty slow growth.

jacoblyles 17y ago

It's interesting that you view near-zero revenue as a positive sign.