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My guidance to others, when they ask about US debt, I suggest they watch Japan. When Japan's interest rates rise, even just a little, their debt will become uns
by AJ007 12y ago
My guidance to others, when they ask about US debt, I suggest they watch Japan. When Japan's interest rates rise, even just a little, their debt will become unserviceable. Once that happens, it will be time to think hard about US debt. The plan is clearly to inflate out of it. Survivable for the wealthy, devastating for everyone else.
The blog post raises some fair points, but the author does a pretty poor job at getting any point across. The most concerning things right now are: low interest rates on very high risk debt, continued and dramatic growth of derivatives (you fail, I fail, we all fail), and China's decision to push the 2008 correction in to the future finally running out of steam. The geo-political issues in the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia are a whole other cause for concern.
I think the risks now are still fairly benign compared to what was faced during the Cold War (though we still build new nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles, Russia fell short of its recent goal of 300 and instead has built 30 so far.)
- nerfhammer 12y ago> The plan is clearly to inflate out of it. [[Citation needed]]
- ArkyBeagle 12y agoThere is probably 10% slack right now before you even get to mild inflation. What's concerning to me is geopolitical instability while the economy is teetering on deflation. This state is strongly correlated with big wars.