4 ms·

Does anyone think we are heading towards an economic collapse?

zenogais 12y ago
Seeing as how "natural economic growth" is not infinitely sustainable (I'm operating under the assumptions that there are finite quantities of natural resources and human ingenuity is not infinite and infallible). It's probabilistically inevitable.
- fokinsean 12y ago
  Yeah I agree, I guess what I meant to ask is if we are going to experience one in the near future (within 10 years)
- sliverstorm 12y ago
  Natural resources are finite, but so long as we can improve our efficiency faster than some rate N, we will never run out of a given resource. Thank you Zeno's Paradox. (Recycling also plays a part, though I don't know if it should be considered increasing the supply, or increasing our efficiency) The only one that is a real problem is energy. Thanks to the laws of physics, we may not be able to forever increase our energy efficiency, and energy cannot be recycled.
  - deleted 12y ago
    [deleted]
- richcollins 12y ago
  It seems unlikely to me that we're anywhere close to diminishing returns from technology. More likely we're seeing what happens when a system is full of perverse incentives that reward unproductive / destructive behavior.
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
michaelochurch 12y ago
True economic collapse, in which ammo becomes more valuable than money? No. Depression? Quite possible. I'd give it a 50% chance in the next 20 years (read my post on this thread, I explain some of why.) The very long term outlook is positive; the short-term outlook is dismal. The global elite and the middle class have been at war and the latter is losing.
- fokinsean 12y ago
  Just read it, very interesting. I just have a fear of the economy and dollar collapsing and life as we know it going to shit since the whole world is so dependent on us. I don't have a very solid basis for this fear, but that's the nature of many fears (I saw someone on Maury with a fear of pickles). Just hearing bad news all the time about the direction this country is going makes it loom in the back of my head.
  - happyscrappy 12y ago
    >Just hearing bad news all the time about the direction this country is going makes it loom in the back of my head. Things are getting better across the board, but that narrative won't sell. Doom sells.
thaumaturgy 12y ago
Collapse, no. But I do think we're going to see, in our lifetimes, a mostly-global economy that is very different from anything that humans have had in the past, and that the transition to that is going to sometimes look disastrous. I can't say much about the intricacies of how economies are managed, because I don't know much about that. But there are a few trends happening today that are unique in human history. For one, we've entered an age where the economies of most of the countries in the world have become interconnected to some extent. Just 100 years ago, this wasn't the case. The mismanagement of an economy in one country can have serious repercussions in other countries now; I think it's inevitable that we'll see a world economic governing body develop. This sort of already de facto exists, but if it doesn't meet the needs of the lower and middle classes, it's going to become more political. For another, we have begun to impose some serious limits on our resource demands. In the past, one way to combat a sluggish economy was to get bigger; if you had the money, you might try to establish a colony somewhere, grow your territory, or put more natural resources to work in the form of industry. But now, we've seen the effects of that on our natural environment and mostly collectively decided to limit our use of resources. Now, the name of the game is greater and greater efficiency, doing more with less, consuming less. Meanwhile, a common trend around the world, and especially in the "west" (incl. Europe and Australia and the usual suspects), is that people want more leisure time. Workers are tired. The economy has been particularly hard on the lower socioeconomic classes, and they can get burnt out just like anybody else. They largely have crap jobs -- "bullshit jobs" as one economist puts it -- they can't expect loyalty from their company so they aren't loyal to it either, and they don't make enough money to get to enjoy the perks of life that, thanks to a massive global communications system, they get to see everyone else enjoying. You can't go to the store anymore without seeing a travel magazine with a beautiful front cover staring you in the face. So, I don't think most people are looking to work more. In fact, I think that if it were possible for a lot of people, down to the poorest classes, to give up just a little bit more to be able to gain more real leisure time, they'd do it. Simultaneously, production technology keeps getting better and better, so we can have more and more stuff for less and less money. And, there's a massively adversarial relationship now between the worker classes and the wealthier classes. I think a lot of people intuitively recognize a lot of this, and they feel like the only thing keeping them from having the life they want is unfairly low wages mostly set by people who have a lot more money. There's always political unrest somewhere in the world; I think a lot of it in the west is going to focus on economic issues. People are going to keep agitating to get their basic needs met, so that they're less reliant on jobs that they feel are both demeaning and fundamentally unfair. As hard as it may be to believe, especially if you rarely leave the Silicon Valley scene, I think we're going to see more of a movement towards spending less on material goods. I think the developing world is where almost all of the economic growth will be for a while, and I think the economies in the developed world are going to continue to be sluggish until there's a big breakthrough in either energy (e.g. fusion) or exploration (Mars). I also think there's a possibility this could all lead to an amazing modern Renaissance. Never before in history have so many people been so close to having as much free time as they desire to create, build, or learn about anything they want; we truly have no idea what kind of art, engineering, or science might come from that. Unfortunately, until a new social contract is developed between the economic classes, the poor are going to have a very hard time of it.

Seeing as how "natural economic growth" is not infinitely sustainable (I'm operating under the assumptions that there are finite quantities of natural resources and human ingenuity is not infinite and infallible). It's probabilistically inevitable.

fokinsean 12y ago
Yeah I agree, I guess what I meant to ask is if we are going to experience one in the near future (within 10 years)
sliverstorm 12y ago
Natural resources are finite, but so long as we can improve our efficiency faster than some rate N, we will never run out of a given resource. Thank you Zeno's Paradox. (Recycling also plays a part, though I don't know if it should be considered increasing the supply, or increasing our efficiency) The only one that is a real problem is energy. Thanks to the laws of physics, we may not be able to forever increase our energy efficiency, and energy cannot be recycled.
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
richcollins 12y ago
It seems unlikely to me that we're anywhere close to diminishing returns from technology. More likely we're seeing what happens when a system is full of perverse incentives that reward unproductive / destructive behavior.
deleted 12y ago
[deleted]

michaelochurch 12y ago

True economic collapse, in which ammo becomes more valuable than money? No. Depression? Quite possible. I'd give it a 50% chance in the next 20 years (read my post on this thread, I explain some of why.) The very long term outlook is positive; the short-term outlook is dismal. The global elite and the middle class have been at war and the latter is losing.

fokinsean 12y ago
Just read it, very interesting. I just have a fear of the economy and dollar collapsing and life as we know it going to shit since the whole world is so dependent on us. I don't have a very solid basis for this fear, but that's the nature of many fears (I saw someone on Maury with a fear of pickles). Just hearing bad news all the time about the direction this country is going makes it loom in the back of my head.
- happyscrappy 12y ago
  >Just hearing bad news all the time about the direction this country is going makes it loom in the back of my head. Things are getting better across the board, but that narrative won't sell. Doom sells.

thaumaturgy 12y ago

Collapse, no. But I do think we're going to see, in our lifetimes, a mostly-global economy that is very different from anything that humans have had in the past, and that the transition to that is going to sometimes look disastrous. I can't say much about the intricacies of how economies are managed, because I don't know much about that. But there are a few trends happening today that are unique in human history. For one, we've entered an age where the economies of most of the countries in the world have become interconnected to some extent. Just 100 years ago, this wasn't the case. The mismanagement of an economy in one country can have serious repercussions in other countries now; I think it's inevitable that we'll see a world economic governing body develop. This sort of already de facto exists, but if it doesn't meet the needs of the lower and middle classes, it's going to become more political. For another, we have begun to impose some serious limits on our resource demands. In the past, one way to combat a sluggish economy was to get bigger; if you had the money, you might try to establish a colony somewhere, grow your territory, or put more natural resources to work in the form of industry. But now, we've seen the effects of that on our natural environment and mostly collectively decided to limit our use of resources. Now, the name of the game is greater and greater efficiency, doing more with less, consuming less. Meanwhile, a common trend around the world, and especially in the "west" (incl. Europe and Australia and the usual suspects), is that people want more leisure time. Workers are tired. The economy has been particularly hard on the lower socioeconomic classes, and they can get burnt out just like anybody else. They largely have crap jobs -- "bullshit jobs" as one economist puts it -- they can't expect loyalty from their company so they aren't loyal to it either, and they don't make enough money to get to enjoy the perks of life that, thanks to a massive global communications system, they get to see everyone else enjoying. You can't go to the store anymore without seeing a travel magazine with a beautiful front cover staring you in the face. So, I don't think most people are looking to work more. In fact, I think that if it were possible for a lot of people, down to the poorest classes, to give up just a little bit more to be able to gain more real leisure time, they'd do it. Simultaneously, production technology keeps getting better and better, so we can have more and more stuff for less and less money. And, there's a massively adversarial relationship now between the worker classes and the wealthier classes. I think a lot of people intuitively recognize a lot of this, and they feel like the only thing keeping them from having the life they want is unfairly low wages mostly set by people who have a lot more money. There's always political unrest somewhere in the world; I think a lot of it in the west is going to focus on economic issues. People are going to keep agitating to get their basic needs met, so that they're less reliant on jobs that they feel are both demeaning and fundamentally unfair. As hard as it may be to believe, especially if you rarely leave the Silicon Valley scene, I think we're going to see more of a movement towards spending less on material goods. I think the developing world is where almost all of the economic growth will be for a while, and I think the economies in the developed world are going to continue to be sluggish until there's a big breakthrough in either energy (e.g. fusion) or exploration (Mars). I also think there's a possibility this could all lead to an amazing modern Renaissance. Never before in history have so many people been so close to having as much free time as they desire to create, build, or learn about anything they want; we truly have no idea what kind of art, engineering, or science might come from that. Unfortunately, until a new social contract is developed between the economic classes, the poor are going to have a very hard time of it.