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I've frequently heard the idea bounced around that self driving cars will eliminate the need for ownership. I'm glad you mentioned taxis, because it brings up

by abruzzi 12y ago

I've frequently heard the idea bounced around that self driving cars will eliminate the need for ownership. I'm glad you mentioned taxis, because it brings up something that has bugged me about this idea for a while. I live in a metro area of 200,000. This metro area has exactly zero taxis. (We do have a free ride services that is funded by the local city for getting the elderly and disabled around, which probably has six cars.) The three reasons are size density and wealth. As density goes down, mileage to get from point A to point B goes up, which means costs go up. It also means that cars are potentially occupied for longer periods, so you would likely need more cars to service the same population in denser areas. So ultimately taxis are not economically feasible here. So because you don't have to hire drivers, those costs go down and potentially lower the barrier to entry, but you have potentially more expensive vehicles, and higher maintenance costs that may somewhat offset the savings. So you could charge more for the service here, but being a poor city, would anyone here pay the extra costs? Enough to sustain the business model? Or will we have to suffer with significantly worse service--wait an hour to get picked up. I'm sure the business model would work in SF, NYC, Chicago, but here it will have to come down a lot in cost. Also (to the parent poster,) I just see the possibility that a migration like this could take place within 25 years just ludicrous.

ncallaway 12y ago
"Also (to the parent poster,) I just see the possibility that a migration like this could take place within 25 years just ludicrous." Why is such a time-frame for this kind of a transition so ludicrous? In 1989 cell-phones were uncommon and looked like this: http://phoneevolution.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/1.jpg http://phoneevolution.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/1.jpg. In 1899 there were about ~8,000 automobiles in the United States [1]. In 1924 Ford was producing over 2M Model T's per year [2]. In 1903 we saw the powered flight of a heavier-than-air aircraft by the Wright brothers. In 1927 somebody flew an airplane across the Atlantic ocean. [3] [1] http://web.bryant.edu/~ehu/h364/materials/cars/cars%20_19th.htm http://web.bryant.edu/~ehu/h364/materials/cars/cars%20_19th.... [2] http://web.bryant.edu/~ehu/h364/materials/cars/cars%20_30.htm http://web.bryant.edu/~ehu/h364/materials/cars/cars%20_30.ht... [3] http://www.loc.gov/exhibits/treasures/wb-timeline.html#1903 http://www.loc.gov/exhibits/treasures/wb-timeline.html#1903
- Mandelbug 12y ago
  I would like to point out that all of your examples are of expanding industries, not industries that underwent large societal, cultural, and legal transformations into entirely different industries. Society, culture, and laws are made for expanding industries, they have to be evolved and rewritten for industries of change. So I am going to have to disagree, 25 years would have to be the most optimistic kind of prediction, assuming that all players are willing and pro-active, rather than passive and resistive (both in society and legally speaking).
prawn 12y ago
At first, someone might own their own robo-car but make it available (through some brand/software) to service other people on demand. Imagine it's called "Uber Libre" or something so it leverages an app and efforts in major cities. Assuming that insurance/security is covered by Uber Libre, the risk to the vehicle owner will be reduced. That person will profit from their vehicle whenever they're not using it (and tax free against the cost of the vehicle?). They'll either build up a fleet or others will catch wind and do the same. Someone buying a new vehicle will be choosing between the default or something that self-drives only them around or something they can share with friends or rent out to the masses. An equilibrium will be reached where the needs of the city are covered for the costs involved. Want to go to a restaurant and drink more than you could and still drive? Easy. Want to have a truck show up and help you move a sofa? Easy. 25 years is a long, long time...
- ams6110 12y ago
  25 years is not that long. To me it feels like it was yesterday. And everything today feels pretty much the same. People still work pretty much the same sorts of jobs, at the same hours, still eat Big Macs for lunch, they own cars that work pretty much the same as then, get pretty much the same fuel economy, live in homes or apartments that are pretty much like the ones then, they buy their food in supermarkets that are pretty much the same as then, etc. I know I would never want to share my car with strangers, any more than I would want to let strangers live in my house while I am at work. This may change I suppose, but if it does I think it will be more by force than by choice.
  - prawn 12y ago
    Not disagreeing that many things stay the same as you listed, but at the same time, there have been incremental changes everywhere that would be noticeable in their absence years back. I perform a job that didn't exist 25 years ago, I stay in touch with friends in new ways and so on. 25 years from now, we'll still eat similar things, use similar vehicles, transact in similar ways, but I think that the gap between the front of technology and those old things will widen. We won't see current cars quickly replaced, but I'm confident that Google & co will make decent progress with each year on their technology, then regulation, then adoption. As for sharing your car, remember that eventually generations of future drivers will know little different. Or gradual cost pressure or advantages will influence decisions. It will start with use of vehicles in resort/campus-type situations, then eventually start to replace second vehicles then may be the only car for some people. Driving age in Australia is 16. So there are another 9 years before someone is born who will reach driving age by the 25 year mark.

by abruzzi 12y ago

ncallaway 12y ago

"Also (to the parent poster,) I just see the possibility that a migration like this could take place within 25 years just ludicrous." Why is such a time-frame for this kind of a transition so ludicrous? In 1989 cell-phones were uncommon and looked like this: http://phoneevolution.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/1.jpg http://phoneevolution.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/1.jpg. In 1899 there were about ~8,000 automobiles in the United States [1]. In 1924 Ford was producing over 2M Model T's per year [2]. In 1903 we saw the powered flight of a heavier-than-air aircraft by the Wright brothers. In 1927 somebody flew an airplane across the Atlantic ocean. [3] [1] http://web.bryant.edu/~ehu/h364/materials/cars/cars%20_19th.htm http://web.bryant.edu/~ehu/h364/materials/cars/cars%20_19th.... [2] http://web.bryant.edu/~ehu/h364/materials/cars/cars%20_30.htm http://web.bryant.edu/~ehu/h364/materials/cars/cars%20_30.ht... [3] http://www.loc.gov/exhibits/treasures/wb-timeline.html#1903 http://www.loc.gov/exhibits/treasures/wb-timeline.html#1903

Mandelbug 12y ago
I would like to point out that all of your examples are of expanding industries, not industries that underwent large societal, cultural, and legal transformations into entirely different industries. Society, culture, and laws are made for expanding industries, they have to be evolved and rewritten for industries of change. So I am going to have to disagree, 25 years would have to be the most optimistic kind of prediction, assuming that all players are willing and pro-active, rather than passive and resistive (both in society and legally speaking).

prawn 12y ago

At first, someone might own their own robo-car but make it available (through some brand/software) to service other people on demand. Imagine it's called "Uber Libre" or something so it leverages an app and efforts in major cities. Assuming that insurance/security is covered by Uber Libre, the risk to the vehicle owner will be reduced. That person will profit from their vehicle whenever they're not using it (and tax free against the cost of the vehicle?). They'll either build up a fleet or others will catch wind and do the same. Someone buying a new vehicle will be choosing between the default or something that self-drives only them around or something they can share with friends or rent out to the masses. An equilibrium will be reached where the needs of the city are covered for the costs involved. Want to go to a restaurant and drink more than you could and still drive? Easy. Want to have a truck show up and help you move a sofa? Easy. 25 years is a long, long time...

ams6110 12y ago
25 years is not that long. To me it feels like it was yesterday. And everything today feels pretty much the same. People still work pretty much the same sorts of jobs, at the same hours, still eat Big Macs for lunch, they own cars that work pretty much the same as then, get pretty much the same fuel economy, live in homes or apartments that are pretty much like the ones then, they buy their food in supermarkets that are pretty much the same as then, etc. I know I would never want to share my car with strangers, any more than I would want to let strangers live in my house while I am at work. This may change I suppose, but if it does I think it will be more by force than by choice.
- prawn 12y ago
  Not disagreeing that many things stay the same as you listed, but at the same time, there have been incremental changes everywhere that would be noticeable in their absence years back. I perform a job that didn't exist 25 years ago, I stay in touch with friends in new ways and so on. 25 years from now, we'll still eat similar things, use similar vehicles, transact in similar ways, but I think that the gap between the front of technology and those old things will widen. We won't see current cars quickly replaced, but I'm confident that Google & co will make decent progress with each year on their technology, then regulation, then adoption. As for sharing your car, remember that eventually generations of future drivers will know little different. Or gradual cost pressure or advantages will influence decisions. It will start with use of vehicles in resort/campus-type situations, then eventually start to replace second vehicles then may be the only car for some people. Driving age in Australia is 16. So there are another 9 years before someone is born who will reach driving age by the 25 year mark.