This article makes the rather optimistic assumption that bookie prices efficiently and purely represent probabilistic models. This isn't quite the truth, as man

This article makes the rather optimistic assumption that bookie prices efficiently and purely represent probabilistic models. This isn't quite the truth, as many bookies can and do take a position against the weight of money (punters often bet disproportionately and according to some psychology). There's also the juice to consider, particularly for underdogs, where value is quickly eroded.