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These statistical analyses never work well for football and this one is another example of that happening. For example, except for Spain in South Africa, no Eu

by wsxcde 12y ago

These statistical analyses never work well for football and this one is another example of that happening. For example, except for Spain in South Africa, no European country has ever won the world cup outside of Europe. Why is this? A large part of this is due to the weather. And unsurprisingly, South African weather in the southern winter isn't terribly different from what the Europeans are used to. This stat alone should've predicted a lot of the European "upsets" and should trigger your suspicions about 2 out of the top 3 favorites being European. And even if you were unconvinced about this prior to the tournament, having watched teams struggling in Manaus should've convinced you that these statistical analyses ignore important information that is obvious to even semi-casual fans.

jsnell 12y ago
I am still unconvinced. The data set is incredibly small, incredibly noisy, and after the South African tournament only convincing if you cherry pick the right results. The last time an Europen team didn't make it to the finals was in 1950. If climate really did matter that much, you wouldn't expect that. In addition to 2010 that you chose to ignore, the US world cup final went to the penalties and the 1986 Mexico final was tied 2-2 between Argentina and West Germany until something like 10 minutes before the end. (And a non-European team was in the finals largely thanks to the most famous refereeing error in the history of the sport). That evidence looks really weak.
oscargrouch 12y ago
Yeah but Brazil has continental proportions.. so you can find hot/cold weather conditions depending on the location.. Im Brazilian and my childhood city was between -3C to -10C on winter, more in the South Brazil(Paraná) I Think half of the stadiums in the world cup have mid to cold wheater conditions Belo Horizonte, São Paulo, Curitiba, Porto Alegre Tropical Wheater: Rio, Cuiaba, Natal, Fortaleza, Recife, Manaus(this is probably the worse) Lets not forget that some of those latin americans nations are used to cold wheater conditions, like Uruguay and Argentina(as in South Brazil) So it depends..

by wsxcde 12y ago

jsnell 12y ago

I am still unconvinced. The data set is incredibly small, incredibly noisy, and after the South African tournament only convincing if you cherry pick the right results. The last time an Europen team didn't make it to the finals was in 1950. If climate really did matter that much, you wouldn't expect that. In addition to 2010 that you chose to ignore, the US world cup final went to the penalties and the 1986 Mexico final was tied 2-2 between Argentina and West Germany until something like 10 minutes before the end. (And a non-European team was in the finals largely thanks to the most famous refereeing error in the history of the sport). That evidence looks really weak.

oscargrouch 12y ago

Yeah but Brazil has continental proportions.. so you can find hot/cold weather conditions depending on the location.. Im Brazilian and my childhood city was between -3C to -10C on winter, more in the South Brazil(Paraná) I Think half of the stadiums in the world cup have mid to cold wheater conditions Belo Horizonte, São Paulo, Curitiba, Porto Alegre Tropical Wheater: Rio, Cuiaba, Natal, Fortaleza, Recife, Manaus(this is probably the worse) Lets not forget that some of those latin americans nations are used to cold wheater conditions, like Uruguay and Argentina(as in South Brazil) So it depends..