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I find comments like this unconstructive, and they always surface when people present forecasts. It's easy to play the shoulda-woulda-coulda game with data. "Yo

I find comments like this unconstructive, and they always surface when people present forecasts. It's easy to play the shoulda-woulda-coulda game with data. "You should account for the breaking strengths of each team's players' ACL tendons. It could affect the outcome if they get injured!" Okay, so what? Did you do it? Does the data exist? Do you have any quantitative evidence of a statistically significant link between the weather and team performance? If you do, do you also have the evidence to show that the game forecast is not rate limited by the error of the weather forecast? I'm not saying you have to write a thesis to suggest new data sources, but I am saying that "you need to do XYZ" is not a productive piece of advice without the evidence to back it.

ccozan 12y ago
Good points. Now I am not going to excuse for expriming my thoughts on a public forum, but I will give right to you that one need to have data to sustain his points. Now strictly to subject, would be indeed a nice exercise to take a team performance ( under any scoring formula ) and correlate it with the weather at that time. This data ( team data and weather data) exists. If we find any correlation - not sure. Could be that for some teams it doesn't exist - they play good no matter the atmospheric conditions. The second exercise is the yellow cards, but this is indeed hard to factor since is very dependent of the coach strategy ( we cannot assume that the same player always plays). So, yes, OK, let's leave that out.
wsxcde 12y ago
It's obvious that weather is a huge factor and if you think this is just a "shoulda-woulda-coulda game", then maybe you need to take a step back and admit you have no domain knowledge? Also, if you're doing statistical analyses of your own, hopefully this isn't how you react to domain experts giving you advice on factors you should consider. If you react the way you just did, it's quite likely people will just shut up and you'll be left floundering the darkness.
badusername 12y ago
Though I agree with you on the weather bit, there is already a history of yellow and red cards from the tournament already, which could have huge implications on the tournament ahead. (For eg, Luis Suarez getting booted is one.)
- darthgoogle 12y ago
  It would be useful to have a database of football punishments so teams and fans could see whether a player has been dealt with fairly or not. Perhaps one already exists?

ccozan 12y ago

Good points. Now I am not going to excuse for expriming my thoughts on a public forum, but I will give right to you that one need to have data to sustain his points. Now strictly to subject, would be indeed a nice exercise to take a team performance ( under any scoring formula ) and correlate it with the weather at that time. This data ( team data and weather data) exists. If we find any correlation - not sure. Could be that for some teams it doesn't exist - they play good no matter the atmospheric conditions. The second exercise is the yellow cards, but this is indeed hard to factor since is very dependent of the coach strategy ( we cannot assume that the same player always plays). So, yes, OK, let's leave that out.

wsxcde 12y ago

It's obvious that weather is a huge factor and if you think this is just a "shoulda-woulda-coulda game", then maybe you need to take a step back and admit you have no domain knowledge? Also, if you're doing statistical analyses of your own, hopefully this isn't how you react to domain experts giving you advice on factors you should consider. If you react the way you just did, it's quite likely people will just shut up and you'll be left floundering the darkness.

badusername 12y ago

Though I agree with you on the weather bit, there is already a history of yellow and red cards from the tournament already, which could have huge implications on the tournament ahead. (For eg, Luis Suarez getting booted is one.)

darthgoogle 12y ago
It would be useful to have a database of football punishments so teams and fans could see whether a player has been dealt with fairly or not. Perhaps one already exists?