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The "Winning Probabilities" chart is calculated "starting from the round of 16". But the "chance-to-reach/chance-of-knockout" graphs below seem to have been cal
by Mercher 12y ago
The "Winning Probabilities" chart is calculated "starting from the round of 16". But the "chance-to-reach/chance-of-knockout" graphs below seem to have been calculated at an earlier time - it shows the probability of reaching the round of 16 as less than 1 for each team.
I think the US lost their last group match, but Belgium won theirs, so maybe something like shifted the model probabilities between the time of the 2 graphs.
- drcoopster 12y agoThe US lost, but it was Germany that was knocked out.
- sspiff 12y agoNo. The US lost, but both Germany and the US qualified for the next round, with Germany being group lead (Germany is 1G, US is 2G).
- icebraining 12y agoNo, we (Portugal) got knocked out, since the US had the same points and more goals scored.