I've written a simulator that seems to fit with intuition, but you guys might want to check out my code (http://scripts.mit.edu/~bcater/prisoners_code.php http:

I've written a simulator that seems to fit with intuition, but you guys might want to check out my code (http://scripts.mit.edu/~bcater/prisoners_code.php http://scripts.mit.edu/~bcater/prisoners_code.php). It gives me just under 10,000 operations, on average.