Your analysis assumes healthcare is like any other commodity. While the primary aim of the ACA is not overall cost reduction (but, rather, make it affordable f

Your analysis assumes healthcare is like any other commodity. While the primary aim of the ACA is not overall cost reduction (but, rather, make it affordable for the uninsured to get insurance), there are several reasons it could go down that path. The marketplaces and minimum standards for insurance plans make it easier to comparison shop. The fact that people will have insurance will lead to earlier and cheaper treatments for potentially serious disease. Businesses can get out of the insurance business altogether. As businesses remove themselves from the equation individuals will be more attuned to the cost of their insurance plans and shop accordingly. There are some direct provisions for paying providers for disease prevention and effective treatments that lead to patients not having to return for the same issue rather than just for treatments reversing that twisted financial incentive. Granted, there are plenty of ways for these potential cost benefits to go sour but there is a good chance that the ACA will actually reduce costs relative to what they would have been without the ACA.