3 ms·

Unfortunately, simple, time-tested solutions likely won't get food production to the place it needs to be in 30 years.

jqm 12y ago
Not to be deliberately morbid but there is a time tested solution to not enough food that re-appears again and again throughout human history. It's called famine and has been a tremendous regulator of human overpopulation. Maybe we can beat famine back forever. But I'm not counting on it. The whole situation is actually pretty tenuous. You don't see a lot about it on the news, but I understand the Horn of Africa has been experiencing massive famine over the past several years and hundreds of thousands have died from lack of nourishment. From an outside (rather than personal) perspective, this is just part of the cycle. In the first world we have beat famine back over the past century and the third world has enjoyed much of the benefit of this as they import much of their grain staples. But, we have sucked the aquifers dry, damned up most of the rivers and overallocation the water, are running short of essential nutrients like phosphorous and the whole thing is oil based. So, I am guessing in spite of massive efforts, the cycle of famine re-appears around the world again. Maybe next time around we can make our political/social systems a bit more efficient and forward looking which is, in my opinion, the only way to eliminate famine forever. But I'm not necessarily counting on that either.
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
- jqm 12y ago
  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_phosphorus http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_phosphorus relatively speaking, does it matter if we run out in 100 years or 300 years? the point is... we are on an unsustainable path in food production.
manicdee 12y ago
You're answering the wrong question. "How do you feed the number of people we expect to have on the planet in 30 years time?" Wrong question. "How many people can we expect to feed given the best possible conversion of sunlight into food?" Right question. Then you have to ask, "are we prepared to do that to our planet, or do we need to start seriously thinking about population control?"
- NotAtWork 12y ago
  I don't see why food production should be limited to sunlight: we're likely going to have fusion power before we hit any kind of real food cap (ie, limit on growing rather than hunger based on poverty or distribution problems). Why not grow large tanks of GMO algae with fusion power?
  - jqm 12y ago
    GMO algae or yeast grown in tanks as a complete protein to replace the resource wasteful meat we eat so much of is a really good idea. I expect it is the future and wish there were more work being done on it right now.

jqm 12y ago

Not to be deliberately morbid but there is a time tested solution to not enough food that re-appears again and again throughout human history. It's called famine and has been a tremendous regulator of human overpopulation. Maybe we can beat famine back forever. But I'm not counting on it. The whole situation is actually pretty tenuous. You don't see a lot about it on the news, but I understand the Horn of Africa has been experiencing massive famine over the past several years and hundreds of thousands have died from lack of nourishment. From an outside (rather than personal) perspective, this is just part of the cycle. In the first world we have beat famine back over the past century and the third world has enjoyed much of the benefit of this as they import much of their grain staples. But, we have sucked the aquifers dry, damned up most of the rivers and overallocation the water, are running short of essential nutrients like phosphorous and the whole thing is oil based. So, I am guessing in spite of massive efforts, the cycle of famine re-appears around the world again. Maybe next time around we can make our political/social systems a bit more efficient and forward looking which is, in my opinion, the only way to eliminate famine forever. But I'm not necessarily counting on that either.

deleted 12y ago
[deleted]
jqm 12y ago
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_phosphorus http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_phosphorus relatively speaking, does it matter if we run out in 100 years or 300 years? the point is... we are on an unsustainable path in food production.

manicdee 12y ago

You're answering the wrong question. "How do you feed the number of people we expect to have on the planet in 30 years time?" Wrong question. "How many people can we expect to feed given the best possible conversion of sunlight into food?" Right question. Then you have to ask, "are we prepared to do that to our planet, or do we need to start seriously thinking about population control?"

NotAtWork 12y ago
I don't see why food production should be limited to sunlight: we're likely going to have fusion power before we hit any kind of real food cap (ie, limit on growing rather than hunger based on poverty or distribution problems). Why not grow large tanks of GMO algae with fusion power?
- jqm 12y ago
  GMO algae or yeast grown in tanks as a complete protein to replace the resource wasteful meat we eat so much of is a really good idea. I expect it is the future and wish there were more work being done on it right now.