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"I can't really imagine how Americans manage to normally live their lives." This is truly awful, but the vast majority of Americans will never be subject to a

"I can't really imagine how Americans manage to normally live their lives." This is truly awful, but the vast majority of Americans will never be subject to a SWAT raid or anything like it (especially if they're not involved in illegal activity). Or terrorist attacks. Or mass shootings. Or etc etc. People are notoriously bad at estimating the probability rare but extreme events will happen to them. Of course, that doesn't make this ok. I personally believe SWAT team usage should be restricted to hostage, active shooter, and similar situations.

deleted 12y ago
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- tlrobinson 12y ago
  That's how probabilities work.
sliverstorm 12y ago
I would even say "vast majority" is an understatement.
simplemath 12y ago
Then why throw up your pitiful strawman in the first place?
ddeck 12y ago
>but the vast majority of Americans will never be subject to a SWAT raid or anything like it (especially if they're not involved in illegal activity). Or terrorist attacks. Or mass shootings. Or etc etc. While that's true, it's somewhat beside the point. US citizens are far more likely to be a on the receiving end of a SWAT raid or a victim of murder than citizens of other countries at a comparable level of development. The fact that it's only a minority of the population doesn't mean there isn't a serious issue. To put some numbers on it, the US annual murder rate is ~5 people per 100k population. Yes, it's small, but compare that to 1.0 in the UK, 1.1 in Australia, 1.6 in Canada (0.4 in my country), and clearly it's a more dangerous place. There are estimated to be ~50-80k US SWAT raids per year annually. Of those in Maryland for example: - half are for non-violent "part-II" crimes - a third resulted in no arrests - >1% resulted in an officer's weapon being fired I didn't know those SWAT stats prior to today and I find them shocking. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentiona... http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-watch/wp/2014/02/17/shedding-light-on-the-use-of-swat-teams/ http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-watch/wp/2014/02/17/s...
id 12y ago
>People are notoriously bad at estimating the probability rare but extreme events will happen to them. Yes, people are known to underestimate the likelihood of such events happening to them relative to others. Also see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimism_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimism_bias
cullenking 12y ago
Two years ago, the house behind mine was raided by Portland's version of SWAT, SERT. The scary thing for me was the house number matched my house number, but was on the next street. Given that you read stories about SWAT raiding the wrong residence because they misread the house number, it made worried that the same could happen to me. Picture proof: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/AqKIhXOCIAEaG9D.jpg:large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/AqKIhXOCIAEaG9D.jpg:large

deleted 12y ago

[deleted]

tlrobinson 12y ago
That's how probabilities work.

sliverstorm 12y ago

I would even say "vast majority" is an understatement.

simplemath 12y ago

Then why throw up your pitiful strawman in the first place?

ddeck 12y ago

>but the vast majority of Americans will never be subject to a SWAT raid or anything like it (especially if they're not involved in illegal activity). Or terrorist attacks. Or mass shootings. Or etc etc. While that's true, it's somewhat beside the point. US citizens are far more likely to be a on the receiving end of a SWAT raid or a victim of murder than citizens of other countries at a comparable level of development. The fact that it's only a minority of the population doesn't mean there isn't a serious issue. To put some numbers on it, the US annual murder rate is ~5 people per 100k population. Yes, it's small, but compare that to 1.0 in the UK, 1.1 in Australia, 1.6 in Canada (0.4 in my country), and clearly it's a more dangerous place. There are estimated to be ~50-80k US SWAT raids per year annually. Of those in Maryland for example: - half are for non-violent "part-II" crimes - a third resulted in no arrests - >1% resulted in an officer's weapon being fired I didn't know those SWAT stats prior to today and I find them shocking. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentiona... http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-watch/wp/2014/02/17/shedding-light-on-the-use-of-swat-teams/ http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-watch/wp/2014/02/17/s...

id 12y ago

>People are notoriously bad at estimating the probability rare but extreme events will happen to them. Yes, people are known to underestimate the likelihood of such events happening to them relative to others. Also see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimism_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimism_bias

cullenking 12y ago

Two years ago, the house behind mine was raided by Portland's version of SWAT, SERT. The scary thing for me was the house number matched my house number, but was on the next street. Given that you read stories about SWAT raiding the wrong residence because they misread the house number, it made worried that the same could happen to me. Picture proof: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/AqKIhXOCIAEaG9D.jpg:large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/AqKIhXOCIAEaG9D.jpg:large