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The unfortunately necessary preface: I'm a huge soccer fan, and have followed my favorite team (Benfica) since 1992 when I was introduced by my grandfather. I

The unfortunately necessary preface: I'm a huge soccer fan, and have followed my favorite team (Benfica) since 1992 when I was introduced by my grandfather. I think the author's mathematical assertions are correct. Soccer has an amazing amount of random noise, but is influenced in one direction or another by talent. However, my conclusion isn't that watching soccer is a waste of time, but rather that the cup format for soccer competition doesn't prove much. The season and point aggregation format makes much more sense (and it makes much more sense in any form of low scoring / high variability sport, such as baseball). Because of the variability, any sort of win-to-advance behavior can heavily skew the entire competition towards those with early luck.

ninguem2 12y ago
Looking only at one World Cup, you are looking at something that can be hugely influenced by chance, yes. But if you look at the history of World Cups, patterns emerge and it's very clear which countries are better. So think of the World Cup as one round of an extended competition.
- metacorrector 12y ago
  sure, but as an analogy, can you see tic-tac-toe not as an obvious tie but as one round in an epic game of attrition? Would it be fun to see who could win a continuous stream of tic tac toe games, games played end to end for 24, 36, 48 hrs, maybe with no breaks for food? Cage Tic Tac Toe, where someone actually does start losing due to their weaker constitution? While that could be imagined to be a fun sport, just as the soccer you describe is a fun sport, perhaps there is a way to play with some other rules that achieve more fun for the fan, for the player, and which give a sense that you know who is the best team in this tournament, rather than who comes from the country with the better long term immigration policy with respect to the game of tic tac toe?
  - ninguem2 12y ago
    I've actually been enjoying following the World Cup for a few decades now.
metacorrector 12y ago
Thank you for having an open mind with regard to a sport you are a fan of, many fans can't do this. I am as much a soccer fan as the next avg American is. I think I agree with the article, not because I read the article, but because I arrived at the same conclusion myself. Basketball and soccer are very similar sports, to the extent that we can say that they are mathematically "the same" sport in the same sense that all op amp circuits are the same, simply with differing amounts of time delayed positive and negative feedback. I think what the author is trying to prove is what I came up with intuitively: imagine soccer without goalkeepers, or soccer with a larger net; that game would be very similar to current soccer (in terms of gameplay), but it would have much higher scores. Along with the higher scores would come, in my belief, a greater sense on the part of the fan that "the best team won". There would still be excitement, there would still be upsets, but the upsets would be based more on a cinderella team summoning their (admirable cheerable) "will to win" (or the champions failing due to hubris, cf tortoise and hare) and less due to statistical noise. The sense I get watching soccer is, this is a good game with skill and athleticism, but something could be done to ensure that the best team wins more often; not that the outcomes would be more predictable, but that the outcomes would be more satisfying. And also, with fewer tie breakers.

ninguem2 12y ago

Looking only at one World Cup, you are looking at something that can be hugely influenced by chance, yes. But if you look at the history of World Cups, patterns emerge and it's very clear which countries are better. So think of the World Cup as one round of an extended competition.

metacorrector 12y ago
sure, but as an analogy, can you see tic-tac-toe not as an obvious tie but as one round in an epic game of attrition? Would it be fun to see who could win a continuous stream of tic tac toe games, games played end to end for 24, 36, 48 hrs, maybe with no breaks for food? Cage Tic Tac Toe, where someone actually does start losing due to their weaker constitution? While that could be imagined to be a fun sport, just as the soccer you describe is a fun sport, perhaps there is a way to play with some other rules that achieve more fun for the fan, for the player, and which give a sense that you know who is the best team in this tournament, rather than who comes from the country with the better long term immigration policy with respect to the game of tic tac toe?
- ninguem2 12y ago
  I've actually been enjoying following the World Cup for a few decades now.

metacorrector 12y ago

Thank you for having an open mind with regard to a sport you are a fan of, many fans can't do this. I am as much a soccer fan as the next avg American is. I think I agree with the article, not because I read the article, but because I arrived at the same conclusion myself. Basketball and soccer are very similar sports, to the extent that we can say that they are mathematically "the same" sport in the same sense that all op amp circuits are the same, simply with differing amounts of time delayed positive and negative feedback. I think what the author is trying to prove is what I came up with intuitively: imagine soccer without goalkeepers, or soccer with a larger net; that game would be very similar to current soccer (in terms of gameplay), but it would have much higher scores. Along with the higher scores would come, in my belief, a greater sense on the part of the fan that "the best team won". There would still be excitement, there would still be upsets, but the upsets would be based more on a cinderella team summoning their (admirable cheerable) "will to win" (or the champions failing due to hubris, cf tortoise and hare) and less due to statistical noise. The sense I get watching soccer is, this is a good game with skill and athleticism, but something could be done to ensure that the best team wins more often; not that the outcomes would be more predictable, but that the outcomes would be more satisfying. And also, with fewer tie breakers.