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Just how peaceful do you think the US will remain after e.g. we no longer can borrow "a trillion dollars a year" at negative real interest rates? Wars on arith

by hga 12y ago

Just how peaceful do you think the US will remain after e.g. we no longer can borrow "a trillion dollars a year" at negative real interest rates? Wars on arithmetic eventually fail, and I expect our's to in my lifetime. Note that I don't currently wear it when I go outdoors, currently don't even carry as many spare magazines as I perhaps should when I do. It's one of the logical things to do after you buy and train up with your initial set of guns. Fairly inexpensive used sets can be bought; my current concealable one is used, Kevlar doesn't deteriorate in normal use, we've got a lot of experience with it by now. And putting on my chemist hat, I expect ultra-high-molecular-weight polyethylene (e.g. Dyneema and Spectra) to be very very stable.

nicholas73 12y ago
Probably will mirror the experience Britain had once the pound lost its reserve status.
- XorNot 12y ago
  The US dollar isn't losing it's reserve status. What would replace it? The day the Chinese Yuan floats freely might be a small step in that direction, but then we've also got "able to exchange any world currency into it" and "China has a growth rate which is realistically maintainable". You don't get negative interest rates because people don't want to hold US dollars.
  - hga 12y ago
    I don't think it's axiomatic it's status can't end in, say, the medium term, or that it would be replaced per se. As a hypothetical, suppose the Federal government decided to liquidate its debts the Weimar Republic/Zimbabwe way. You are of course correct about the current situation, including the PRC; I interpret it as the US dollar being one of the "least worst" places to put your money. I'm of course looking beyond this period ... which still doesn't necessarily equal people not wanting to hold US dollars, as we saw in the '70s when things got quite ugly. I'm just implicitly pointing out there's a whole lot being built on the current reality of the Federal government being able to borrow essentially for free, and that I expect the latter to end, with bad consequences for the former.
reader5000 12y ago
What is the optimal spare magazine to federal funds rate ratio?
lgieron 12y ago
Wouldn't it be better just to prepare to flee the US quickly (rather than preparing for staying and trying to survive the mayhem)?
- hga 12y ago
  For me that neither makes sense nor would be practical; it might not even be possible. I also have a number of obligations in the US, family in particular. There's also many, many practical issues with the very concept. How do you know when to flee before it's too late? And to where? How will such a crisis affect other parts of the world?

by hga 12y ago

nicholas73 12y ago

Probably will mirror the experience Britain had once the pound lost its reserve status.

XorNot 12y ago
The US dollar isn't losing it's reserve status. What would replace it? The day the Chinese Yuan floats freely might be a small step in that direction, but then we've also got "able to exchange any world currency into it" and "China has a growth rate which is realistically maintainable". You don't get negative interest rates because people don't want to hold US dollars.
- hga 12y ago
  I don't think it's axiomatic it's status can't end in, say, the medium term, or that it would be replaced per se. As a hypothetical, suppose the Federal government decided to liquidate its debts the Weimar Republic/Zimbabwe way. You are of course correct about the current situation, including the PRC; I interpret it as the US dollar being one of the "least worst" places to put your money. I'm of course looking beyond this period ... which still doesn't necessarily equal people not wanting to hold US dollars, as we saw in the '70s when things got quite ugly. I'm just implicitly pointing out there's a whole lot being built on the current reality of the Federal government being able to borrow essentially for free, and that I expect the latter to end, with bad consequences for the former.

reader5000 12y ago

What is the optimal spare magazine to federal funds rate ratio?

lgieron 12y ago

Wouldn't it be better just to prepare to flee the US quickly (rather than preparing for staying and trying to survive the mayhem)?

hga 12y ago
For me that neither makes sense nor would be practical; it might not even be possible. I also have a number of obligations in the US, family in particular. There's also many, many practical issues with the very concept. How do you know when to flee before it's too late? And to where? How will such a crisis affect other parts of the world?