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I don't get FlightCaster and I don't see how it can make enough money to justify external investment. It is not very useful to me to have a "maybe" about my fli

I don't get FlightCaster and I don't see how it can make enough money to justify external investment. It is not very useful to me to have a "maybe" about my flight - I will still go the airport on time and wait for the flight. And furthermore, flights nowadays in my part of the world are on time. I've not been delayed in quite a long while. FlightCaster has to be more than 95% accurate all the time, or its not useful. And I don't believe this tool is 95% accurate.

pg 17y ago
For heavy business travelers, the question is not whether to go to the airport or not, but whether to rebook or not, and they decide that based on probabilities.
- sayrer 17y ago
  I travel quite a lot. I don't think flightcaster would be much help for domestic itineraries, from JFK to SFO, for example. It doesn't deliver much value for the work week frequent flyer (those who travel for 5 work days). Critical stuff happens on Tues/Wed/Thurs for just this reason. It's no big deal if I get in late on Monday--I just sit in the lounge and hack or answer email.
  - bbgm 17y ago
    When you have families every hour counts. It does matter if I get in late on Monday, even though I am perfectly find hacking away in the lounge
- maxklein 17y ago
  Flying is an uncertain business time-wise, and I think most business travellers have factored the uncertainty into their schedule, and are not constantly looking to see if they should rebook or not. The technology is good, and it's a useful tool. But technology does not give the money, it's the customers who do.
bradfordcross 17y ago
Hi Max, Flightcaster may not be as useful for all travelers, but we believe it may be useful to a large enough population of travelers to be a real business. Some business travelers can rebook flights in order to significantly increase the likelihood that they can make an important business meeting. In this case, it may be aimed at connecting flights, or at initial departing flights. For others, having the information is useful, even if it doesn't mean rebooking. For example, I have traveled a lot for business and we joke about the value of the power outlets at the airports - another 20 minutes with power for my laptop is a big value in the airport. :-) Lastly, we humans have to be careful about our bias toward making ambiguous numerical claims and extrapolating out from our limited experiences. The flights you have taken in your part of the world is a small sample size to generalize from. Depending on how you define us "delayed," somewhere between 20 - 30 % of U.S. domestic flights are delayed. What numbers do you have to substantiate the claim that "flights nowadays in my part of the world are on time?"
- maxklein 17y ago
  I can understand that there is a category of travellers that would need something like this, but what I don't see is the money. I.e, rebooking a flight is an emotionally taxing activity. It's like being in the supermarket and deciding if you should switch to the other line or stay in your line. It's a very small decision and the difference in time lost or gained is tiny, but emotionally, it's a pretty big decision. Rebooking a flight is also an emotionally expensive decision, and if I would ever trust flightcaster, it has to really be completely accurate all of the time. I would kick myself if I rebooked and something went wrong. SO! We were talking about the money - the business is like a drill down list, and in each step, you have a smaller number: Travellers > Travellers who care about being on time > Travellers who are internet saavy > Travellers who have heard of your app > Travellers who want your app > Travellers who will pay for your app. With that depth in the list, you better be charging a pretty penny for this or, and this would be my personal preference, leave the consumer market and sell it to businesses as a B2B solution. Selling to consumers is going to be futile - you may make money for 2-3 people to pay their bills, but you will not make money to justify an external investment.
physcab 17y ago
I travel quite a bit as well. I've gotten pretty savvy at avoiding airports that are busy. I can see the real value for this application to business users, however like you, I'm not convinced this will be a huge market. But that's maybe because I haven't calculated the hard numbers (how many people are actually afflicted by this problem and are willing to pay money to solve it). That said, I'm convinced there is an enormous demand for prediction services. If someone could have predicted Boeing's extreme manufacturing delays with the 787 looking at supply-chain optimization, that alone would have saved billions.

pg 17y ago

For heavy business travelers, the question is not whether to go to the airport or not, but whether to rebook or not, and they decide that based on probabilities.

sayrer 17y ago
I travel quite a lot. I don't think flightcaster would be much help for domestic itineraries, from JFK to SFO, for example. It doesn't deliver much value for the work week frequent flyer (those who travel for 5 work days). Critical stuff happens on Tues/Wed/Thurs for just this reason. It's no big deal if I get in late on Monday--I just sit in the lounge and hack or answer email.
- bbgm 17y ago
  When you have families every hour counts. It does matter if I get in late on Monday, even though I am perfectly find hacking away in the lounge
maxklein 17y ago
Flying is an uncertain business time-wise, and I think most business travellers have factored the uncertainty into their schedule, and are not constantly looking to see if they should rebook or not. The technology is good, and it's a useful tool. But technology does not give the money, it's the customers who do.

bradfordcross 17y ago

Hi Max, Flightcaster may not be as useful for all travelers, but we believe it may be useful to a large enough population of travelers to be a real business. Some business travelers can rebook flights in order to significantly increase the likelihood that they can make an important business meeting. In this case, it may be aimed at connecting flights, or at initial departing flights. For others, having the information is useful, even if it doesn't mean rebooking. For example, I have traveled a lot for business and we joke about the value of the power outlets at the airports - another 20 minutes with power for my laptop is a big value in the airport. :-) Lastly, we humans have to be careful about our bias toward making ambiguous numerical claims and extrapolating out from our limited experiences. The flights you have taken in your part of the world is a small sample size to generalize from. Depending on how you define us "delayed," somewhere between 20 - 30 % of U.S. domestic flights are delayed. What numbers do you have to substantiate the claim that "flights nowadays in my part of the world are on time?"

maxklein 17y ago
I can understand that there is a category of travellers that would need something like this, but what I don't see is the money. I.e, rebooking a flight is an emotionally taxing activity. It's like being in the supermarket and deciding if you should switch to the other line or stay in your line. It's a very small decision and the difference in time lost or gained is tiny, but emotionally, it's a pretty big decision. Rebooking a flight is also an emotionally expensive decision, and if I would ever trust flightcaster, it has to really be completely accurate all of the time. I would kick myself if I rebooked and something went wrong. SO! We were talking about the money - the business is like a drill down list, and in each step, you have a smaller number: Travellers > Travellers who care about being on time > Travellers who are internet saavy > Travellers who have heard of your app > Travellers who want your app > Travellers who will pay for your app. With that depth in the list, you better be charging a pretty penny for this or, and this would be my personal preference, leave the consumer market and sell it to businesses as a B2B solution. Selling to consumers is going to be futile - you may make money for 2-3 people to pay their bills, but you will not make money to justify an external investment.

physcab 17y ago

I travel quite a bit as well. I've gotten pretty savvy at avoiding airports that are busy. I can see the real value for this application to business users, however like you, I'm not convinced this will be a huge market. But that's maybe because I haven't calculated the hard numbers (how many people are actually afflicted by this problem and are willing to pay money to solve it). That said, I'm convinced there is an enormous demand for prediction services. If someone could have predicted Boeing's extreme manufacturing delays with the 787 looking at supply-chain optimization, that alone would have saved billions.