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Less of the "anyone with an ounce of sense" type language, please. Not everyone who disagrees with you is stupid. What you say is correct as far as it goes but

by Pitarou 12y ago

Less of the "anyone with an ounce of sense" type language, please. Not everyone who disagrees with you is stupid. What you say is correct as far as it goes but ... well ... I could write: > Only a driveling idiot does not understand that a government that prints its own currency doesn't need to borrow money at all. And it would be completely true. They tried that in Zimbabwe, didn't they? I'm wall aware that Japan has a few magic charms (high savings rates, strong balance of trade, and so on) that enabled the government to run up far higher debts than would be possible elsewhere. But it looks to me like those charms are all used up now.

crdoconnor 12y ago
>Less of the "anyone with an ounce of sense" type language, please. Not everyone who disagrees with you is stupid. Not stupid, but brainwashed perhaps. The fact remains that these predictions of Japanese hyperinflation using the EXACT same argument as yours have continued for two whole decades. When are the predictions going to cease? How many more decades of zero inflation / deflation are needed before it becomes clear that continued deficit spending DOESN'T inevitably lead to hyperinflation? Three decades? Four decades? A century? At what point do you start to consider your model broken and your predictions useless? >And it would be completely true. They tried that in Zimbabwe, didn't they? ABSOLUTELY WRONG. What they tried in Zimbabwe was borrowing a currency they DIDN'T print (US dollars). They were then reliant upon foreign food imports (because they ruined their farm indsutry) and had no real resources to service their FOREIGN debt. So they printed money and tried to exchange it for USD with predictable consequences. Japan did not borrow USD. It will NEVER borrow USD. It will NEVER end up like Zimbabwe. Not now. Not in ten years with 300% debt. Not even with a trade deficit and 500% debt. NEVER. Weimar was like Zimbabwe (its debts were denominated in Gold). Argentina was like Zimbabwe (it pegged its currency to the USD). Greece was like Zimbabwe (it can't print Euros any more than it can print gold). Japan is NOT like Zimbabwe. It controls its debt. It controls its currency. >I'm wall aware that Japan has a few magic charms Japan has no magic charms and its trade balance is irrelevant to its capacity to borrow. It borrows in its own currency so it can borrow as much as it likes at whatever interest rates it likes. End of story. For it to escape its economic rut this idea that it has to first pay off its huge debt needs to die. It actually needs to ramp up spending on jobs, just like the US did at the end of the great depression. People need to stop seeing sky high Japanese debt as the cause of its stagnation and start seeing it as the result of its stagnation. Cause and effect flows the other way.
- Pitarou 12y ago
  > Not stupid, but brainwashed perhaps. > ... End of story. End of story indeed. I'm obviously too "brainwashed" to have anything of value to say. But I would like to point out that I never said government debt was the cause of Japan's economic stagnation.
  - crdoconnor 12y ago
    >I'm obviously too "brainwashed" to have anything of value to say. That depends. Do you still think that hyperinflation is even a remote possibility in Japan? >But I would like to point out that I never said government debt was the cause of Japan's economic stagnation. Nope, you didn't, but austerianism IS still the default economic mode of thought these days amongst Japanese and western elites, and it is strongly linked to the belief in impending hyperinflation.
    - ekianjo 12y ago
      > austerianism IS still the default economic mode of thought these days amongst Japanese and western elites, austerianism?? Where? Japan is overspending by large amounts every single year and I have yet to hear any Japanese politician (apart from Hashimoto) talking about making economies. Abe's program is all about spending to death.
      - crdoconnor 12y ago
        >austerianism?? Where? Japan is overspending by large amounts every single year Where is this opinion being held? Right ^^^ fucking ^^^ here. Where is it being implemented? Here: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-29/japan-s-government-proposes-first-spending-cut-in-seven-years.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-29/japan-s-government-... And the consumption tax hike. Many among the Japanese elites (not to mention American and European) feel the same way as you. Even among the neoconservatives they're somewhat schizophrenic about spending.
        12y ago

by Pitarou 12y ago

crdoconnor 12y ago

>Less of the "anyone with an ounce of sense" type language, please. Not everyone who disagrees with you is stupid. Not stupid, but brainwashed perhaps. The fact remains that these predictions of Japanese hyperinflation using the EXACT same argument as yours have continued for two whole decades. When are the predictions going to cease? How many more decades of zero inflation / deflation are needed before it becomes clear that continued deficit spending DOESN'T inevitably lead to hyperinflation? Three decades? Four decades? A century? At what point do you start to consider your model broken and your predictions useless? >And it would be completely true. They tried that in Zimbabwe, didn't they? ABSOLUTELY WRONG. What they tried in Zimbabwe was borrowing a currency they DIDN'T print (US dollars). They were then reliant upon foreign food imports (because they ruined their farm indsutry) and had no real resources to service their FOREIGN debt. So they printed money and tried to exchange it for USD with predictable consequences. Japan did not borrow USD. It will NEVER borrow USD. It will NEVER end up like Zimbabwe. Not now. Not in ten years with 300% debt. Not even with a trade deficit and 500% debt. NEVER. Weimar was like Zimbabwe (its debts were denominated in Gold). Argentina was like Zimbabwe (it pegged its currency to the USD). Greece was like Zimbabwe (it can't print Euros any more than it can print gold). Japan is NOT like Zimbabwe. It controls its debt. It controls its currency. >I'm wall aware that Japan has a few magic charms Japan has no magic charms and its trade balance is irrelevant to its capacity to borrow. It borrows in its own currency so it can borrow as much as it likes at whatever interest rates it likes. End of story. For it to escape its economic rut this idea that it has to first pay off its huge debt needs to die. It actually needs to ramp up spending on jobs, just like the US did at the end of the great depression. People need to stop seeing sky high Japanese debt as the cause of its stagnation and start seeing it as the result of its stagnation. Cause and effect flows the other way.

Pitarou 12y ago
> Not stupid, but brainwashed perhaps. > ... End of story. End of story indeed. I'm obviously too "brainwashed" to have anything of value to say. But I would like to point out that I never said government debt was the cause of Japan's economic stagnation.
- crdoconnor 12y ago
  >I'm obviously too "brainwashed" to have anything of value to say. That depends. Do you still think that hyperinflation is even a remote possibility in Japan? >But I would like to point out that I never said government debt was the cause of Japan's economic stagnation. Nope, you didn't, but austerianism IS still the default economic mode of thought these days amongst Japanese and western elites, and it is strongly linked to the belief in impending hyperinflation.
  - ekianjo 12y ago
    > austerianism IS still the default economic mode of thought these days amongst Japanese and western elites, austerianism?? Where? Japan is overspending by large amounts every single year and I have yet to hear any Japanese politician (apart from Hashimoto) talking about making economies. Abe's program is all about spending to death.
    - crdoconnor 12y ago
      >austerianism?? Where? Japan is overspending by large amounts every single year Where is this opinion being held? Right ^^^ fucking ^^^ here. Where is it being implemented? Here: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-29/japan-s-government-proposes-first-spending-cut-in-seven-years.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-29/japan-s-government-... And the consumption tax hike. Many among the Japanese elites (not to mention American and European) feel the same way as you. Even among the neoconservatives they're somewhat schizophrenic about spending.
      - 12y ago