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Japan's Abe is the world's best leader right now?
- ekianjo 12y ago> . The result: Japan has escaped deflation. The stock market is up, growth is way up and even wages are finally starting to rise. where?? Wages have not moved up at all. But hey, my shopping list's total price has gone up by 30% in the past 6 months, and Uniqlo has just announced that for the first time in like 20 years they are going to raise their prices in Japan, because hey, a weak Japanese yen makes commodities more expensive and they just can't continue like that anymore. But yeah, Abe's the Best Ever! What a joke of an article.
- ZirconCode 12y agoWhere do you shop? My prices have gone up by about 5%. Groceries have mainly remained the same for me. The consumption tax has also been raised, do not forget. I believe Uniqlo planning to raise prices does not reflect a failed fight against inflation.
- hkmurakami 12y agoThe consumption tax went from 5% to 8% right? Not sure why they decided to go with such a regressive tax instead of other alternatives :(
- ekianjo 12y agoI've since increases since the sales tax went active that have nothing to do with a 3% increase, more like a 10-15 % increase in prices. Milk has gone up from 170 JPY where I shopped to 200 JPY in a matter of weeks. And that's just one item, I can give you dozens of examples like that. Anyone who's claiming there's no inflation is clearly blind or refusing to see the truth out there. Most of the time, these people happen to the politicians in power. Strange coincidence.
- mattm 12y agoA lot of businesses used the consumption tax increase to raise prices. I attended an expo for English language school owners last year and most said they were planning to raise their prices and hope no one would notice. As I drove by a barber shop on April 1st, they were changing their sign from 2500 yen for a haircut to 2900. A tad more than 3%. The clinic my wife works at raised one of their monthly services from 7000 yen per month to 12000 yen!
- ekianjo 12y agoYeah, that's exactly what I am talking about. Glad there are some people with a pair of eyes out there.
- glandium 12y ago> A lot of businesses used the consumption tax increase to raise prices. That. And the government encouraged it. In 2004, a law made it obligatory to display prices with consumption tax included (税込み). That obligation was lifted 6 months ago. Guess what happened as a result. Displayed prices didn't change. Products at 1000 yens tax included (税込み) are now 1000 yens without tax (税抜き). 1080 yens out of consumer pockets, instead of 1029. 8% increase instead of ~3%. The flip side is that this makes for better margins for businesses. Even businesses that did absorb the tax increase now claim to do a bigger favor than they are actually doing (that is, their 1000 yens service is still 1000 yens, but they advertize it's 1000 instead of 1080) I haven't seen much of the kind of prices increases you describe, though.
- mattm 12y agoAh, I didn't know about that. When I came to Japan it seemed every price was always tax included. I have noticed recently that some places have tax being extra. Now I see why.
- ekianjo 12y ago> Uniqlo planning to raise prices does not reflect a failed fight against inflation. Uniqlo is a good example because they had never changed their pricing no matter how up and down the economy went in the past decades. The fact that they are doing it now is actually very worrying as a trend for Japan. It means they had no choice but to do that.
- rtpg 12y agoPrices have only gone up 30% if you keep all your money in Euros/Dollars. Purchasing power has only gone down something like 2% over the past year (which considering the freefall of the Yen is pretty impressive).
- nandemo 12y agoI guess you meant "prices have only gone up 30% if only buy imported goods"? I think purchasing power has gone down more than 2%, because of the sales tax hike. Otherwise you have a point.
- rtpg 12y agoI couldn't find a source for that number but I remember reading it a month or so before the tax hike
- ekianjo 12y agoI don't buy imported goods. I am talking about groceries and everyday life expenses including energy. Prices have definitely gone up. I keep my receipts for 5 years.
- ekianjo 12y ago> Japan’s top social problem is the role of women. Says who ? Of course there are women who are aspiring for a career and this may be a problem for them, but then, most women in Japan are actually fine to leave work and go on with a life at home taking care of the children. I've seen several colleagues of mine who graduated from Tokyo University and had good jobs (with responsibilities similar to men's) and who left their career because they wanted to focus on kids instead, and had no regret doing so.
- hkmurakami 12y agoWould those same women have made that decision if conditions were equal across the genders? Would they have tried to remain or return to the workforce if daycare supplort and career tracks were more suitable to their needs? Hard to say without considering alternative realities.
- ZirconCode 12y ago> there are women who are aspiring for a career and this may be a problem for them Steven Pinker wrote about this in his book 'The Blank Slate'. The problem is that women here do not have the choice, as you yourself even point out. Perhaps the large majority voluntarily choose a lifestyle which does not grind against the standard but what about those which choose a career? Equality does not mean that women act the same as men, it means that women have the same choice as men.
- logicchains 12y agoIt seems women are becoming less and less willing to marry[1]. "The second change is that, among certain groups, people are not merely marrying later. They are not getting married at all. In 2010 a third of Japanese women entering their 30s were single. Perhaps half or more of those will never marry. In 2010 37% of all women in Taiwan aged 30-34 were single, as were 21% of 35-39-year-olds. This, too, is more than in Britain and America, where only 13-15% of those in their late 30s are single. If women are unmarried entering their 40s, they will almost certainly neither marry nor have a child." 1.http://www.economist.com/node/21526329 http://www.economist.com/node/21526329
- hyperion2010 12y ago
- JacobAldridge 12y agoI've been interested to see how Abenomics has played out - it certainly started with a bold vision, but most of what I've read (and that's not a lot, I'm no expert) seems to have indicated that it hasn't really worked. So this article excited me - I love to see a grand vision being implemented and the goals coming together. A quick look at the comments, however, (including ekianjo's immediate response here) seems to indicate that rather than demonstrating Abenomics success, all this article does is demonstrate that the author doesn't have a grasp on the facts. Oh well.
- ChrisGaudreau 12y ago> but most of what I've read (and that's not a lot, I'm no expert) seems to have indicated that it hasn't really worked. Well, the primary goal was reflation, so by that measure, it's been a resounding success so far. Growth, exports, and consumer spending have been boosted a lot, too. I'm a little worried that the sales tax increase will reverse this trend, but we will see.
- ekianjo 12y agoYou don't measure success in economics over a single year. Already companies are starting to revise their forecasts since they are starting to face expensive commodity prices (coming from the weaker yen) and the whole domestic economy is hurting because of the rising Petrol price. Yeah, a resounding success by all measures! Let's reconnect in 5 years and see such policies transformed Japan for the best.
- ChrisGaudreau 12y agoRe-read what I said: Well, the primary goal was reflation, so by that measure, it's been a resounding success so far. Notice "by that measure" and "so far". Please do not distort my words. But yes, you're right; it could end as an unmitigated disaster economically. We just don't know yet.
- Pitarou 12y agoAbe is certainly making a difference. But a bastion of liberal democracy? Hardly. For instance, look at the man he parachuted in as the head of NHK: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-25901572 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-25901572 And there's a large stretch between trying to boost the economy by encouraging female labor force participation and feminism. By that standard, Saddam Hussein might have been called a feminist in some periods of his reign. Opinion is sharply divided over whether Abe's economic policies make any sense. I'm in the "they're insane" camp. I've likened Abe to the captain of a ship who, seeing an iceberg looming, calls out, "Full steam ahead! We're going to smash our way through." But all observers agree on these two points: 1. Abenomics will be a disaster without large-scale structural reform. 2. The reform we've seen so far isn't nearly enough. Optimists believe that this reform is just round the corner ... that even as we speak Abe is busy quietly building the necessary consensus in key organisations, because that's the way reform is done in Japan. The pessimists want proof. Finally, there is a terrible, terrible paradox at the heart of Abe's economic policies. This is a complex matter, so forgive me for skipping most of the details and implications. No matter how you measure it, the Government of Japan is up to its neck in debt, and is still sinking. The only reason it can keep going is because it pays remarkably low interest rates. But the first "arrow" of Abenomics is to push up inflation, and you can be sure that this arrow will meet its mark because they can always "print" more yen. One of the iron laws of economics is that, when inflation goes up, so do interest rates. Now, to cut a long story short, it looks like the government's going to get out of this bind by directing the Bank of Japan to print even more money to buy it's debt at below-market prices. In fact, if you follow the bond market news, it's clear that this is already happening. And that, my friends, is a recipe for collapse in confidence in the yen. Speaking for myself, as a Japanese resident, I believe that the yen is an increasingly risky asset to hold. I make a point of keeping at least 50% of my savings out of yen, and away from the Japanese financial system. When the shit hits the fan, I don't want my money to be stuck behind Iceland-style capital controls. --- EDIT: Changed "recipe for inflation" to "recipe for collapse in confidence in the yen" in response to comments below.
- nl 12y agoSpeaking about the economics only: And that, my friends, is a recipe for hyperinflation. Perhaps, but given that the situation over the last 15 years has been deflation there is a big, big distance to cover before hyperinflation should be thought of as a significant risk. Something needs to be done to combat the chronic deflationary cycle Japan has suffered in over 15 years. I'm unconvinced this is as bad an idea as you seem to believe.
- crdoconnor 12y ago>In other words, unlike everyone else in the world, Abe listened to Milton Friedman, and the results are looking good. This is absolute horseshit. Japan has been following Friedman's proscriptions (QE forever) for the last 20 years! Look where it got them! Abe has actually continued in these footsteps with one fairly minor difference - he's mixed in a 25% Keynesian spending kick with the QE. This has propelled a bit of inflation and wage growth, along with the business-as-usual propping up asset prices. Now this author is trying to claim that this was thanks to cutting corporate taxes and QE. These are the policies that Japan DIDN'T change with Abe. Furthermore, these are the policies that are causing the Japanification of the West's economy. Abe's plan would have been a major success (instead of a dribble of success) if he just cut the Milton Friedman inspired bullshit QE entirely and printed money and spent it on employing people until inflation and wage growth were up to normal levels. >Boy, was I wrong. I was wrong, wrong, wrong. He's still wrong, wrong, wrong.
- ChrisGaudreau 12y ago> Japan has been following Friedman's proscriptions (QE forever) for the last 20 years! I would say that Japan has been following Friedman's prescriptions until now. The major difference between monetary policy before Abe and after Abe is that Abe has made it clear that he won't jack up interest rates as soon as there is life in the economy. Past governments made it clear they would take away the punch bowl as soon as there was a hint of growth. Basically, Abe has convincingly promised to be irresponsible. And so far, it has worked to beat deflation. Many other indicators are looking better, too, but it'll take some time before we know if it really works. (Hyperinflation? Wages? and so on)
- crdoconnor 12y agoAbe committed to continue doing what Japan has been doing for the last 20 years anyhow. That is not a change in monetary policy. That is not a commitment to being irresponsible. That is just business as usual. No inflation was caused by that. The only difference is that he mixed in a BIT of stimulus spending to the mix. That actually had a real inflationary effect on the economy, although the stimulus wasn't that big so the effect wasn't that big either.
- free2rhyme214 12y agoThis is my response to this article: "Hahahaha...far from it."
- ChrisGaudreau 12y agoThat doesn't provide any value. Would you like to articulate your arguments?
- mattm 12y agoThis article sounds like a paid advertisement for Abe. Let's see, earlier this year, he was campaigning for companies to use their piles of cash to increase wages. What does his government do? He cuts salaries for teachers. Also, living in Japan as a foreigner, his foreign policy stances worry me. He is antagonistic. He was the first PM to visit the infamous Yasukuni shrine in 6 years provoking China and Korea. He also is currently trying to reopen the constitution so that Japan can support it's own army which will further destabilize relationships in the region. Sure, he's cutting the corporate tax rate but he raised the consumption tax 3% a couple months ago and will go up another 2% next year. Prices are already very high in Japan and the government already receives a staggering amount of revenue. There are so many taxes and licenses and import controls here it's unbelievable. The linked article said base pay increased 0.1% from a year earlier. Hardly an indicator that his policies are working. Plus factoring in the consumption tax increase, it means people have less disposable income. My wife works as a homecare nurse and she has countless stories of families that are struggling to get by. A large percentage of the population is elderly and live on very fixed budgets. Abe wants to increase inflation but has no policies on addressing how to support these people during the transition. 25% of the country is already over 65 and this will keep increasing. Recently coverage for prescription drugs also went down meaning seniors need to pay more for their medicine.
- hkmurakami 12y agoFurthermore, iirc there have been longstanding talks to delay the "retirement age" (and thus the start of state pension payments) form 65 to 68. For as long as I can remember, said state pension has been under water, and current 20 year olds are expected to be paid something like $200,000 less than what they put into the system. The country has some good things going, but it is also littered with numerous time bombs.
- mattm 12y agoThis is a good point. The pension system, as it stands now, is just basically another tax.