3 ms·

> I've learned that how you reacted to past bubbles is a good indication of how you'll act to future ones. The same people buying dot-com stocks in 1999 were bu

by nlh 12y ago

> I've learned that how you reacted to past bubbles is a good indication of how you'll act to future ones. The same people buying dot-com stocks in 1999 were buying Miami condos in 2006 and gold in 2011. There was a saying that emerged in the first .com boom -- "You know we're in trouble when the UPS guy is giving you Internet stock tips." Maybe we should ask the UPS guy every few months what he's excited about investing in? Canary in the coal mine, as it were...

FigBug 12y ago
And now they are buying bitcoin.
- Zigurd 12y ago
  Be careful of glibness. I knew the Web was going to be big when people who could not be troubled to learn what a paragraph style is in Word were hanging on my every word, taking notes, and buying books about how to install a 3rd party IP stack in Windows. There's a difference between the UPS guy having an opinion about something and going out of his way to learn about something with a fairly steep learning curve.
- NhanH 12y ago
  Without commenting on the success rate of bitcoin itself, the money being put in bitcoin is still an order of magnitude smaller than the bubbles mentioned in GP. The USP guy, more likely than not still doesn't know about bitcoin.
  - bushido 12y ago
    > an order of magnitude smaller than the bubbles mentioned The thing about money and markets is it all relative(%). Whenever talking on these topics people revert to absolute($) comparisons, this is where most analysis breaks. I am not arguing or commenting on bitcoin success, just that your mention of "order of magnitude" sounds like an absolute value.
    - NhanH 12y ago
      I agree with your remark about the relative and absolute comparisons. However, in this case, the discussion were about the "popularity", or the "reach" of bitcoin. The underlying assumption (by me) is that absolute value would strongly correlate with the number of people knowing about bitcoin, hence the absolute number remark.
bradleysmith 12y ago
There's a saying in the oilfield (many booms and busts over generations): 'when the barber is getting into the oilfield, it's time to get out'
bushido 12y ago
Contrarian indicators. It's rarely the UPS guy, more likely it's an uncle/relative/a friend. The key to acting opposite to the behavior of contrarian indicator requires knowing all their other behavior patterns. The original saying dates back to the great depression and was likely more accurate than the UPS guys generalization. If I recall correctly I first read about it in a book called Zurich Axioms. Looked it up found the story somewhere else. http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1996/04/15/211503/index.htm http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive...
dllthomas 12y ago
That's a paraphrase of a much older story, told about Joseph Kennedy, Sr. and a shoe-shine boy, ahead of the '29 crash.
neilk 12y ago
You know we're in trouble when anyone is giving you stock tips. There is zero evidence that brokers and analysts (in general) can pick stocks better than UPS drivers. Except that they are in a position to profit from others' greed and fear. I'll agree that the "UPS guy" metric is useful, but only because it shows when a certain kind of madness has infected the rest of society. When even people who aren't paid to promulgate nonsense are blinded by their enthusiasm.
deleted 12y ago
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by nlh 12y ago

FigBug 12y ago

And now they are buying bitcoin.

Zigurd 12y ago
Be careful of glibness. I knew the Web was going to be big when people who could not be troubled to learn what a paragraph style is in Word were hanging on my every word, taking notes, and buying books about how to install a 3rd party IP stack in Windows. There's a difference between the UPS guy having an opinion about something and going out of his way to learn about something with a fairly steep learning curve.
NhanH 12y ago
Without commenting on the success rate of bitcoin itself, the money being put in bitcoin is still an order of magnitude smaller than the bubbles mentioned in GP. The USP guy, more likely than not still doesn't know about bitcoin.
- bushido 12y ago
  > an order of magnitude smaller than the bubbles mentioned The thing about money and markets is it all relative(%). Whenever talking on these topics people revert to absolute($) comparisons, this is where most analysis breaks. I am not arguing or commenting on bitcoin success, just that your mention of "order of magnitude" sounds like an absolute value.
  - NhanH 12y ago
    I agree with your remark about the relative and absolute comparisons. However, in this case, the discussion were about the "popularity", or the "reach" of bitcoin. The underlying assumption (by me) is that absolute value would strongly correlate with the number of people knowing about bitcoin, hence the absolute number remark.

bradleysmith 12y ago

There's a saying in the oilfield (many booms and busts over generations): 'when the barber is getting into the oilfield, it's time to get out'

bushido 12y ago

Contrarian indicators. It's rarely the UPS guy, more likely it's an uncle/relative/a friend. The key to acting opposite to the behavior of contrarian indicator requires knowing all their other behavior patterns. The original saying dates back to the great depression and was likely more accurate than the UPS guys generalization. If I recall correctly I first read about it in a book called Zurich Axioms. Looked it up found the story somewhere else. http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1996/04/15/211503/index.htm http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive...

dllthomas 12y ago

That's a paraphrase of a much older story, told about Joseph Kennedy, Sr. and a shoe-shine boy, ahead of the '29 crash.

neilk 12y ago

You know we're in trouble when anyone is giving you stock tips. There is zero evidence that brokers and analysts (in general) can pick stocks better than UPS drivers. Except that they are in a position to profit from others' greed and fear. I'll agree that the "UPS guy" metric is useful, but only because it shows when a certain kind of madness has infected the rest of society. When even people who aren't paid to promulgate nonsense are blinded by their enthusiasm.

deleted 12y ago

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