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Taleb talks about books/movies/etc becoming successes with little to no predictability. Games fall into this category. Hard to tell which games will become ru
by bherms 12y ago
Taleb talks about books/movies/etc becoming successes with little to no predictability. Games fall into this category. Hard to tell which games will become runaway successes, especially from small studios. But you know, it's cool, you can just be a dick about it instead.
- gwern 12y ago> Taleb talks about books/movies/etc becoming successes with little to no predictability No, Taleb loves to sophistically equivocate between meanings of 'black swan' to neutralize any criticism. Did a perfectly ordinary phenomenon in network dynamics and winner-take-all scenarios happen? Taleb takes this as an example. Does someone point out that this is consistent with all past experience and non-power-law distributions like log-normals? Oh, suddenly, he means black swans are totally unpredictable things like 9/11!
- bherms 12y agoWell, he actually calls things relating to those areas mentioned (arts, etc) as grey swans because they do happen, but you can't really predict which of the multitude of things coming out will become the next runaway success. Either way, seems to be a sore spot for you. Chill out.