>Nowhere was it stated the coin was 100% guaranteed to be fair. I agree completely. >You are missing the point of my original example. No I wasn't. I was ju

>Nowhere was it stated the coin was 100% guaranteed to be fair. I agree completely. >You are missing the point of my original example. No I wasn't. I was just stating the possible scenarios (of which yours was one) so that others reading could glean the point a little more easily. Perhaps I failed in this regard, but I certainly understood what you were trying to convey. >My point was you can estimate the probability of a hypothesis by looking at the data. E.g. is it a fair or biased coin, and see how many times it came up heads or tails. Or are female named hurricanes more likely to kill than male ones or not? Yes, I completely agree.