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The author probably has no background in experimental design, so I would spare him of statistical scrutiny. This includes the author's furtive attempt to sneak
by kiyoto 12y ago
The author probably has no background in experimental design, so I would spare him of statistical scrutiny. This includes the author's furtive attempt to sneak in causation into a simple regression.
Or, if I were to give the author of the benefit of the doubt, Uber realized that this potentially inaccurate statistical claim ("Uber is inducing a drop in DUI") can help them win people's goodwill in areas where their operations have been thwarted/stunted by bureaucracy.
If so, they are really shrewd (for most laypeople don't understand anything about statistical inference), but I am not sure if I would trust a company that resorts to such a disingenuous campaign.
I actually want Uber to be a success. I love their service and envision it to be a real-time bidding platform for all sorts of (offline) services. But at the same time, I would be concerned if a company of such great promise is already acting intellectually dishonestly.
Hence, I really, really hope the author is just an idiot.
- leorocky 12y ago> Hence, I really, really hope the author is just an idiot. Not knowing good experimental design doesn't make someone an idiot.
- kiyoto 12y agoI agree. Not knowing anything does not make anyone an idiot. Not realizing that you do not know something, however, kind of does.
- leorocky 12y agoIf "unknown unknowns"[1] make people idiots then everyone is an idiot and the term is neither an insult nor meaningful. Likely there's some other reason you have for wanting to use a mean and angry word that you haven't articulated well. What you describe in your original comment is probably just the Dunning–Kruger[2] effect. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There_are_known_knowns https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There_are_known_knowns [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
- kiyoto 12y agoIt might be a case of the Dunning-Kruger effect. Either way, I am willing to concede that I misused the term (perhaps I am the one being an idiot here). I am still surprised that the blog post got published on Uber's blog though.