Those who feel that if global crude oil production continues to decline there will be great economic disruption base this on two unstated assumptions. The firs

Those who feel that if global crude oil production continues to decline there will be great economic disruption base this on two unstated assumptions. The first is that alternatives for crude oil will be much more expensive than the current crude price. The second is that crude production will fall so fast that there will be a gap before good alternatives can be developed. Regarding assumption #2, there is no way to predict how fast production will drop, if it does continue to drop, but it seems there are enough reserves to cushion against a preciptous drop especially if prices remain high. Regarding assumption #1, any technologist can tell you the cost of reducing consumption is quite low. As for the ultimate potential savings, imagine insulating all of the houses in the US, adding efficient windows, putting in a combined heat/power co-generation system, adding some solar heat collectors on the roof, and switching the fleet to the natural gas saved by eliminating home furnaces. No imported oil needed. Or course, it would be a lot of work.