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How long ago would realtime auditory language translation have been considered obviously strong AI?

• eli_gottlieb 12y ago
  That's basically where my theory about all this comes from. We keep finding that more and more tasks that "clearly" require a whole human-level mind... can actually be done quite well with Narrow AI/ML techniques and crap-tons of training data. We consistently overestimate the Kolmogorov complexity of human cognitive tasks in order to flatter ourselves, thinking that surely no computer can do XYZ unless we're within six months of a capital-S Singularity. Gaaah, I'm trying to remember the link to some short story that Someone (we all know who) wrote about a man fretting over his JRPG party members seeming to be conscious. The author's afterword said that he expected seemingly-conscious video game characters to show up "six months before the Singularity". I currently expect seemingly conscious video-game characters - which are actually just very stylish fakes with really good NLP - many decades before anyone manages to produce a self-improving agent.