4 ms·

I think the underlying problem is the bottom end of the US labor market only has two ladders up and they pulled out from under them: Manufacturing Education t

I think the underlying problem is the bottom end of the US labor market only has two ladders up and they pulled out from under them: Manufacturing Education to get a better job [I don't mean college. I mean something like a trade school to become a plumber or the like]. The kind of blue collar manufacturing jobs they could get is largely done in other countries and imported to the US. There simply aren't enough of these in the US to employ a larger percentage of the population. Education has gotten too expensive and given these are likely people who could never graduate college...it is very high risk for them as well, even at a trade school. I think we really need to get people to go from High School to a Trade School to a Job. Because otherwise, I don't see a way to really shrink the poverty level without raising the minimum wage which is politically unreliable [e.g. We might raise it for 2-3 years, but in 6-8 we will ignore it for a decade again]

kbenson 12y ago
given these are likely people who could never graduate college I don't think that's a given at all. IMO, whether a large portion of the populace thinks they could graduate, would want to go to college, or feels they have the option to go to college does not imply whether they actually could finish if they desired.
- opendais 12y ago
  Do you honestly want to argue 51% of the people in poverty can pass a college level Math or English class? As well as afford the time away from working to gradate? I don't think that is true. http://www.duck9.com/College-Student-Drop-Out-Rates.htm http://www.duck9.com/College-Student-Drop-Out-Rates.htm Over 50% are from financial or academic disqualification reasons... http://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=40 http://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=40 We are talking about 50-60% graduation rates in 6 years for the people colleges already accept. I think poverty would make it hard enough that rate would drop significantly.
  - kbenson 12y ago
    I'm arguing that very many of them have the potential to, and that it's outside factors (such as finances, motivations, and determination) that make the difference in a lot of cases. It's possible I misread the intent of your original comment and we aren't in disagreement on this.
maxerickson 12y ago
My impression is that the trades are reasonably well served. So the people with work do fine in a trade, but there aren't well paying jobs for millions more people there. (I'm thinking of the U.S. where home building is at a relatively low rate right now)
- opendais 12y ago
  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/answer-sheet/post/the-hardest-jobs-to-fill-think-plumbers/2012/07/07/gJQA4wW3UW_blog.html http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/answer-sheet/post/the-ha... http://www.coloradoan.com/story/money/2014/05/07/subcontractor-shortage-threatens-construction-business/8795373/ http://www.coloradoan.com/story/money/2014/05/07/subcontract... http://contractormag.com/plumbing-contractor/skilled-tradesmen-shortage-poses-threat-and-opportunity http://contractormag.com/plumbing-contractor/skilled-tradesm... I think you are mistaken based on the fact I can find plenty of articles talking about a shortage. Likely due to the fact people think like you [and assume there is enough people]. It wouldn't absorb millions but it'd still reduce poverty.
  - Retric 12y ago
    I know plenty of people in the trades and there is no shortage of people do 90% of the work out there. Now, if you want someone to do precision welding underwater that's another story, but there is not a lot of those jobs, and they tend to be rather dangerous.
  - maxerickson 12y ago
    I didn't mean to be as dismissive as you've taken my comment to be. But for a country of 300 million, a shortage of several hundred thousand construction workers is a source of mild friction, not something demanding pervasive policy changes. (I'm being sloppy with numbers, but you've highlighted a larger, growing county that is ~3,000 workers short, and there are only about 3,000 counties total, many of which are smaller than Larimer and experiencing population contractions)
VLM 12y ago
Why would going into debt to get a degree magically create a job? This is a classic display of macro vs micro economics. On a micro scale an individual always gets ahead of the competition by becoming over credentialed (and over educated helps too). But on a macro scale, all the local waitresses and bartenders already have fluffy non-STEM bachelors degrees so more education would merely make the average waitress a little older and deeper in debt, or make the high school grad janitor unemployed in favor of the new poli sci grad janitor. Its not going to deliver my food any quicker or make the bathrooms at the bar any cleaner, no economic gain at all other than bank interest (socialize losses and privatize gains!)

kbenson 12y ago

given these are likely people who could never graduate college I don't think that's a given at all. IMO, whether a large portion of the populace thinks they could graduate, would want to go to college, or feels they have the option to go to college does not imply whether they actually could finish if they desired.

opendais 12y ago
Do you honestly want to argue 51% of the people in poverty can pass a college level Math or English class? As well as afford the time away from working to gradate? I don't think that is true. http://www.duck9.com/College-Student-Drop-Out-Rates.htm http://www.duck9.com/College-Student-Drop-Out-Rates.htm Over 50% are from financial or academic disqualification reasons... http://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=40 http://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=40 We are talking about 50-60% graduation rates in 6 years for the people colleges already accept. I think poverty would make it hard enough that rate would drop significantly.
- kbenson 12y ago
  I'm arguing that very many of them have the potential to, and that it's outside factors (such as finances, motivations, and determination) that make the difference in a lot of cases. It's possible I misread the intent of your original comment and we aren't in disagreement on this.

maxerickson 12y ago

My impression is that the trades are reasonably well served. So the people with work do fine in a trade, but there aren't well paying jobs for millions more people there. (I'm thinking of the U.S. where home building is at a relatively low rate right now)

opendais 12y ago
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/answer-sheet/post/the-hardest-jobs-to-fill-think-plumbers/2012/07/07/gJQA4wW3UW_blog.html http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/answer-sheet/post/the-ha... http://www.coloradoan.com/story/money/2014/05/07/subcontractor-shortage-threatens-construction-business/8795373/ http://www.coloradoan.com/story/money/2014/05/07/subcontract... http://contractormag.com/plumbing-contractor/skilled-tradesmen-shortage-poses-threat-and-opportunity http://contractormag.com/plumbing-contractor/skilled-tradesm... I think you are mistaken based on the fact I can find plenty of articles talking about a shortage. Likely due to the fact people think like you [and assume there is enough people]. It wouldn't absorb millions but it'd still reduce poverty.
- Retric 12y ago
  I know plenty of people in the trades and there is no shortage of people do 90% of the work out there. Now, if you want someone to do precision welding underwater that's another story, but there is not a lot of those jobs, and they tend to be rather dangerous.
- maxerickson 12y ago
  I didn't mean to be as dismissive as you've taken my comment to be. But for a country of 300 million, a shortage of several hundred thousand construction workers is a source of mild friction, not something demanding pervasive policy changes. (I'm being sloppy with numbers, but you've highlighted a larger, growing county that is ~3,000 workers short, and there are only about 3,000 counties total, many of which are smaller than Larimer and experiencing population contractions)

VLM 12y ago

Why would going into debt to get a degree magically create a job? This is a classic display of macro vs micro economics. On a micro scale an individual always gets ahead of the competition by becoming over credentialed (and over educated helps too). But on a macro scale, all the local waitresses and bartenders already have fluffy non-STEM bachelors degrees so more education would merely make the average waitress a little older and deeper in debt, or make the high school grad janitor unemployed in favor of the new poli sci grad janitor. Its not going to deliver my food any quicker or make the bathrooms at the bar any cleaner, no economic gain at all other than bank interest (socialize losses and privatize gains!)