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>Singularity prediction isn't even taken seriously by most formerly-intrigued SF writers these days. Becoming a science fiction cliche does not reduce the prob

>Singularity prediction isn't even taken seriously by most formerly-intrigued SF writers these days. Becoming a science fiction cliche does not reduce the probability of an event occurring. Edit: retracting the following: >The reason it's popular is that it plays to some deep eschatological anxieties shared by many people. This is probably true, but that's not an argument against the feasibility of AI or the extent of its implications. You're saying, "These projections "rhyme" with those of a low-status group, therefore they can't be true."

JulianMorrison 12y ago
And may increase it. The entire low level ongoing effort to build a flying car (Terrafugia, Moller, etc) is basically driven by no market and no common sense, but a whole lot of Jetsons.
- eli_gottlieb 12y ago
  Well yeah, but welcome to humanity. We're at our best when we do what we dream of, as what's "realistic" and "feasible" is almost always just code for "the same crappy thing that happened yesterday happening again tomorrow because nobody made the effort to change it". Except then someone puts in the effort, fulfills their dreams, and the real world winds up totally different from the expected world in which those people never acted.
- BrandonMarc 12y ago
  At least Terrafugia has a functioning prototype (i.e. it actually flies, rather than a 36-inch tethered hover), as well as orders. A separate effort which actually makes a bit more sense and has more of a market is the iTec Maverick [1] - more of a flying dune buggy using a parasail as the "wing", but targeting a wholly different market (the Transition is aimed at wealthy pilots in wealthy countries with streets, airports, etc, whereas the Maverick is - in part - aimed at villagers living in remote jungles, far removed from civilization). -------------------- [1] http://mavericklsa.com/ http://mavericklsa.com/
epistasis 12y ago
> You're saying, "These projections "rhyme" with those of a low-status group, therefore they can't be true." No, that's not his argument for why it's not true, it's his argument for why the singularity concept persists when it seems that otherwise non-religious people would reject it. Some of his arguments against an imminent singularity: http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2011/06/reality-check-1.html http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2011/06/reality-... http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2014/02/the-singularity-is-further-tha.html http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2014/02/the-sing...
- JamesArgo 12y ago
  You're right. It still feels like an unproductive comparison.
mcguire 12y ago
"Becoming a science fiction cliche does not reduce the probability of an event occurring." I think I'd like to see some statistics on that. Edit: No really, I'm serious. Actual data on the commonality of some SF idea and the measured likelihood of it would be very cool.
- jfoutz 12y ago
  Kinda tough to find what's applicable from this list: http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/OverusedSciFiSillyScience http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/OverusedSciFiSill... But there are a few clear standouts. 6. The patently obvious design flaws in a vehicle or weapon system go uncorrected during the entire life cycle of the system in question. The original humvee had issues with passenger armor back in 2004 - they could have been purchased with the armor but weren't. 13, Computers, when shot, explode as if they had been stuffed full of Roman candles. The videos of laptop batteries catching fire are pretty sparkly. Not sure how that would actually interact with a gunshot. 25, On-board computers always know exactly how long it will take for the malfunction to blow up the ship. The Tesla roadster battery stories seem to give warning and force drivers to stop and get out. 31. A robot that can't climb stairs is deployed in an area where stairs are common. Roomba? At the very least, we can make an existential argument about sci-fi cliches actually being accurate. I couldn't think of a good way to get historical science fiction cliches. But the thing about the future is it's unknown. some of Jules Verne's stuff worked out, like submarines and travel to the moon, and other stuff didn't, like time travel. I guess the rational response to "the singularity" is to stick a number on the likelihood of that actually happening - and then getting on with your life. I think you're thinking about the future in a funny way, you should give Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan a read.

JulianMorrison 12y ago

And may increase it. The entire low level ongoing effort to build a flying car (Terrafugia, Moller, etc) is basically driven by no market and no common sense, but a whole lot of Jetsons.

eli_gottlieb 12y ago
Well yeah, but welcome to humanity. We're at our best when we do what we dream of, as what's "realistic" and "feasible" is almost always just code for "the same crappy thing that happened yesterday happening again tomorrow because nobody made the effort to change it". Except then someone puts in the effort, fulfills their dreams, and the real world winds up totally different from the expected world in which those people never acted.
BrandonMarc 12y ago
At least Terrafugia has a functioning prototype (i.e. it actually flies, rather than a 36-inch tethered hover), as well as orders. A separate effort which actually makes a bit more sense and has more of a market is the iTec Maverick [1] - more of a flying dune buggy using a parasail as the "wing", but targeting a wholly different market (the Transition is aimed at wealthy pilots in wealthy countries with streets, airports, etc, whereas the Maverick is - in part - aimed at villagers living in remote jungles, far removed from civilization). -------------------- [1] http://mavericklsa.com/ http://mavericklsa.com/

epistasis 12y ago

> You're saying, "These projections "rhyme" with those of a low-status group, therefore they can't be true." No, that's not his argument for why it's not true, it's his argument for why the singularity concept persists when it seems that otherwise non-religious people would reject it. Some of his arguments against an imminent singularity: http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2011/06/reality-check-1.html http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2011/06/reality-... http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2014/02/the-singularity-is-further-tha.html http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2014/02/the-sing...

JamesArgo 12y ago
You're right. It still feels like an unproductive comparison.

mcguire 12y ago

"Becoming a science fiction cliche does not reduce the probability of an event occurring." I think I'd like to see some statistics on that. Edit: No really, I'm serious. Actual data on the commonality of some SF idea and the measured likelihood of it would be very cool.

jfoutz 12y ago
Kinda tough to find what's applicable from this list: http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/OverusedSciFiSillyScience http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/OverusedSciFiSill... But there are a few clear standouts. 6. The patently obvious design flaws in a vehicle or weapon system go uncorrected during the entire life cycle of the system in question. The original humvee had issues with passenger armor back in 2004 - they could have been purchased with the armor but weren't. 13, Computers, when shot, explode as if they had been stuffed full of Roman candles. The videos of laptop batteries catching fire are pretty sparkly. Not sure how that would actually interact with a gunshot. 25, On-board computers always know exactly how long it will take for the malfunction to blow up the ship. The Tesla roadster battery stories seem to give warning and force drivers to stop and get out. 31. A robot that can't climb stairs is deployed in an area where stairs are common. Roomba? At the very least, we can make an existential argument about sci-fi cliches actually being accurate. I couldn't think of a good way to get historical science fiction cliches. But the thing about the future is it's unknown. some of Jules Verne's stuff worked out, like submarines and travel to the moon, and other stuff didn't, like time travel. I guess the rational response to "the singularity" is to stick a number on the likelihood of that actually happening - and then getting on with your life. I think you're thinking about the future in a funny way, you should give Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan a read.