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If you're given a fair coin, then it's impossible for it to also be a biased coin. If you're given a coin, and you don't know whether it's fair or biased, then
by coherentpony 12y ago
If you're given a fair coin, then it's impossible for it to also be a biased coin.
If you're given a coin, and you don't know whether it's fair or biased, then you can do an inference to give an estimated probability of how biased the coin is.
Those are the two situations. This is a problem about perfect versus imperfect information, not about probabilities.
- deleted 12y ago[deleted]
- Houshalter 12y agoNowhere was it stated the coin was 100% guaranteed to be fair. You are missing the point of my original example. My point was you can estimate the probability of a hypothesis by looking at the data. E.g. is it a fair or biased coin, and see how many times it came up heads or tails. Or are female named hurricanes more likely to kill than male ones or not?
- coherentpony 12y ago>Nowhere was it stated the coin was 100% guaranteed to be fair. I agree completely. >You are missing the point of my original example. No I wasn't. I was just stating the possible scenarios (of which yours was one) so that others reading could glean the point a little more easily. Perhaps I failed in this regard, but I certainly understood what you were trying to convey. >My point was you can estimate the probability of a hypothesis by looking at the data. E.g. is it a fair or biased coin, and see how many times it came up heads or tails. Or are female named hurricanes more likely to kill than male ones or not? Yes, I completely agree.