4 ms·

_IF_ the draws are independent, it's not bullshit and you just lost a lot of money. In the example around which the article is written the draws are very much i

_IF_ the draws are independent, it's not bullshit and you just lost a lot of money. In the example around which the article is written the draws are very much independent. I saw somewhere a similar article with pictures of "randomness". The point was it's very counter-intuitive: random events tend to look very un-evenly distributed. Here lots of zeroes, here lots of ones. Given the big number of "draws" in the Lottery, it's not at all unusual to see a number appear or not appear for a while. So you don't even have reason to suspect foul play.

tjic 17y ago
> _IF_ the draws are independent That's a big IF. Let's do an experiment with people: we ask them to stand in a road, then we tell them that in a moment a hologram of a fire truck will come at them. They are requested to stand in the road. 30 seconds later a massive firetruck appears to race at them, lights going, siren blaring. Sunlight reflects off of the chrome. The guy in the driver seat is wearing a helmet and a black jacket, and scowling. The license plate is "113 GHR". The experimental subject steps out of the road. "Dummy!" we yell... we TOLD YOU that it was a hologram. The candidate isn't a dummy. He just trusted his experience and his own sense a lot more than he trusts one word from you.
- radu_floricica 17y ago
  And your point is? This is Occam's Razor. It's much more likely that it's a real truck. Also the stake vs the gain is too big. I'm talking about a state organized lotterie. Given the huge risks involved in cheating, the fact that the profit margin is assured even without cheating and the fact that there is no one person or entity who really cares about bigger profits (state owned and managed), I'd say the same Occam's Razor would say the draws are very likely independent.

4 ms·

_IF_ the draws are independent, it's not bullshit and you just lost a lot of money. In the example around which the article is written the draws are very much i

by radu_floricica 17y ago

tjic 17y ago
> _IF_ the draws are independent That's a big IF. Let's do an experiment with people: we ask them to stand in a road, then we tell them that in a moment a hologram of a fire truck will come at them. They are requested to stand in the road. 30 seconds later a massive firetruck appears to race at them, lights going, siren blaring. Sunlight reflects off of the chrome. The guy in the driver seat is wearing a helmet and a black jacket, and scowling. The license plate is "113 GHR". The experimental subject steps out of the road. "Dummy!" we yell... we TOLD YOU that it was a hologram. The candidate isn't a dummy. He just trusted his experience and his own sense a lot more than he trusts one word from you.
- radu_floricica 17y ago
  And your point is? This is Occam's Razor. It's much more likely that it's a real truck. Also the stake vs the gain is too big. I'm talking about a state organized lotterie. Given the huge risks involved in cheating, the fact that the profit margin is assured even without cheating and the fact that there is no one person or entity who really cares about bigger profits (state owned and managed), I'd say the same Occam's Razor would say the draws are very likely independent.