4 ms·

Econophysicist Predicts Date of Chinese Stock Market Collapse--Part II

17 points by ca98am79 17y ago

patio11 17y ago
This is Nostradamus level BS: he predicted the data of the Chinese stock market collapse incorrectly, it then later crashed, and people are giving him credit for "calling it" in hindsight of it actually crashing. I'm calling for a massive, rapid recovery of the US economy. It will happen, hmm, next Thursday at noon. If it happens a few months or years later, well, I called it, so what if the timing was a little off.
- mixmax 17y ago
  While I agree with your main point it does seem pretty close. The right thing to do would be to do some math and figure out what the probability is that it's just a coincidence.
  - biohacker42 17y ago
    I put the probably of it being coincidence at 100%.
natch 17y ago
The article, with stunning lack of insight, fails to mention the possibility that a published prediction could be self-fulfilling. It's possible that when the date passed, whispers on the Internet about the prediction failing drew the attention of the rumor mill in Shanghai, leading to paranoia and a belated crash. Asian markets are pretty twitchy, after all.
- Semiapies 17y ago
  "Several questions come to mind. Is this the fall that Sornette and company were predicting or just a coincidence, a regression to the mean? And if the fall is related to their prediction, could the drop have been caused by it?" Emphasis added.
Dilpil 17y ago
It is interesting that they felt confident enough to nail down an exact date for the crash- and not at all surprising that they were wrong.
yummyfajitas 17y ago
If he is right, he is a moron. Why doesn't he keep his mouth shut, short the market, and get fabulously rich?
BearOfNH 17y ago
Once again, the projected date is the timing for a TOP in the market, not a LOW. The bubble has been pricked but, as in very slow motion, it still looks like a bubble for a long time before breaking down. The chart in the original article (http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/files/31560/Shanghai%20bubble.png http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/files/31560/Shang...) clearly depicts (forecasts) topping action in late July. Plus, the chart labels indicate a "100% range" of 10-Jul thru 10-Aug which actually works out well given the current 4-Aug top. I don't think we've seen any "crash" yet. We've seen big moves down but The Shanghai Composite Index is characteristically volatile. Usually, to the extent such a term has any meaning here, it's a 55-day trip from market top to crash low. The heavy action happens near the low which works out to ( ... counts on fingers ... ) 9/28/2009. It's OK to ridicule voodoo forecasting. But common courtesy demands you to first understand what is being said, before you declare it BS. (The people at TR share some blame; they could have stated things more clearly.)

17 points by ca98am79 17y ago

This is Nostradamus level BS: he predicted the data of the Chinese stock market collapse incorrectly, it then later crashed, and people are giving him credit for "calling it" in hindsight of it actually crashing. I'm calling for a massive, rapid recovery of the US economy. It will happen, hmm, next Thursday at noon. If it happens a few months or years later, well, I called it, so what if the timing was a little off.

mixmax 17y ago
While I agree with your main point it does seem pretty close. The right thing to do would be to do some math and figure out what the probability is that it's just a coincidence.
- biohacker42 17y ago
  I put the probably of it being coincidence at 100%.

natch 17y ago

The article, with stunning lack of insight, fails to mention the possibility that a published prediction could be self-fulfilling. It's possible that when the date passed, whispers on the Internet about the prediction failing drew the attention of the rumor mill in Shanghai, leading to paranoia and a belated crash. Asian markets are pretty twitchy, after all.

Semiapies 17y ago
"Several questions come to mind. Is this the fall that Sornette and company were predicting or just a coincidence, a regression to the mean? And if the fall is related to their prediction, could the drop have been caused by it?" Emphasis added.

Dilpil 17y ago

It is interesting that they felt confident enough to nail down an exact date for the crash- and not at all surprising that they were wrong.

yummyfajitas 17y ago

If he is right, he is a moron. Why doesn't he keep his mouth shut, short the market, and get fabulously rich?

BearOfNH 17y ago

Once again, the projected date is the timing for a TOP in the market, not a LOW. The bubble has been pricked but, as in very slow motion, it still looks like a bubble for a long time before breaking down. The chart in the original article (http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/files/31560/Shanghai%20bubble.png http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/files/31560/Shang...) clearly depicts (forecasts) topping action in late July. Plus, the chart labels indicate a "100% range" of 10-Jul thru 10-Aug which actually works out well given the current 4-Aug top. I don't think we've seen any "crash" yet. We've seen big moves down but The Shanghai Composite Index is characteristically volatile. Usually, to the extent such a term has any meaning here, it's a 55-day trip from market top to crash low. The heavy action happens near the low which works out to ( ... counts on fingers ... ) 9/28/2009. It's OK to ridicule voodoo forecasting. But common courtesy demands you to first understand what is being said, before you declare it BS. (The people at TR share some blame; they could have stated things more clearly.)