3 ms·

So. How far along is that thing? I assume they never really tested it as a whole (since that would kind of imply showing it to the world), so there’s lots of po

by arrrg 12y ago

So. How far along is that thing? I assume they never really tested it as a whole (since that would kind of imply showing it to the world), so there’s lots of potential for reality crashing into this. Hard. Right now it’s basically vapourware, right? I mean, I guess they have to show it off, but this feels more like a concept study than an actual thing.

Osmium 12y ago
I think "vapourware" is a bit harsh. They have a roadmap, and so far they've done pretty well with it. This is the next step. Tests of the landing mechanism are planned: http://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/elon-musks-spacex-plans-dragonfly-landing-tests-n111386 http://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/elon-musks-spacex-plans... But considering how well their first-stage landing tests have gone so far, it's not unreasonable to think they'll manage this too.
- arrrg 12y ago
  Seems pretty accurate to me. Lots of things don’t actually work out.
  - simonh 12y ago
    It's not vaporware if they've actually built one. By definition.
  - ufmace 12y ago
    Vaporware would apply to something that the company clearly doesn't have the technical skill or financial means to pull of. The Mars One mission is an excellent example. SpaceX has already flown multiple missions to the ISS and has demoed soft-landing their first stage under power. This may not work 100% right now, but there's every reason to believe that SpaceX has the technical skill, the financing, and the will to make it work.
InclinedPlane 12y ago
Pretty far along. They have an in process application with the FAA for running tests on a "DragonFly" vehicle which is basically a Dragon 2 capsule designed for testing the landing system (which, according to the permit) they plan to do a lot of tests on. Also, they will test the in flight abort system in two separate unmanned tests this year. One on the launch pad and another with a full scale launch with the escape system activating at Max-Q (maximum dynamic pressure on the rocket, the most extreme test possible for the system). Many of the components share engineering heritage with the unmanned cargo Dragon such as the pressure hull, heat shield, RCS thrusters, and so on. Nobody outside SpaceX would know how far along they are in terms of every single component and with integration but every indication is that they are quite far along indeed and most of what they need to do at this point is validate their design through testing and eventually operational flights.
manicdee 12y ago
They've been testing the superdraco rockets for a while, and there was a pad abort test scheduled for December 2013, I don't know whether that actually happened. There was an in-flight abort test scheduled for April 2014, again I don't know if that actually happened.
- Karellen 12y ago
  They put out a press release[0] a couple of days ago about having completed "qualification testing" of the SuperDracos. Also "The pad abort will be the first test of SpaceX’s new launch escape system and is currently expected to take place later this year." [0] http://www.spacex.com/press/2014/05/27/spacex-completes-qualification-testing-superdraco-thruster http://www.spacex.com/press/2014/05/27/spacex-completes-qual...
jccooper 12y ago
They say it's "actual flight design hardware". Probably not quite ready to chuck at the ISS, but all the pieces are there. The main differences from the already-operational Dragon seem to be: - improved heat shield (presumably a minor iteration) - docking hardware (OTS) - Super-Draco thrusters (recently flight-qualified) - seats (apparently extant) - piloting controls (apparently extant, may require additional software) - life support system (?) - software for propulsive landing (will require testing, but they can already do it for a 10-story F9) - software for autonomous docking (unknown, but if Soyuz can do it, so can SpaceX) Most of the hardware seems to be ready to go; the software may not be, but that can be done a lot faster than hardware, and nothing here is beyond their already-demonstrated abilities. There is certainly plenty of testing to be done on the novel things like launch abort and propulsive landing (much of which is already scheduled!), as well as on-orbit tryout of a few things. But it looks like it's pretty far along, and I bet we'll see it in space within 12 months.
ak217 12y ago
The guy has a track record of making his designs survive encounters with reality...

by arrrg 12y ago

Osmium 12y ago

I think "vapourware" is a bit harsh. They have a roadmap, and so far they've done pretty well with it. This is the next step. Tests of the landing mechanism are planned: http://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/elon-musks-spacex-plans-dragonfly-landing-tests-n111386 http://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/elon-musks-spacex-plans... But considering how well their first-stage landing tests have gone so far, it's not unreasonable to think they'll manage this too.

arrrg 12y ago
Seems pretty accurate to me. Lots of things don’t actually work out.
- simonh 12y ago
  It's not vaporware if they've actually built one. By definition.
- ufmace 12y ago
  Vaporware would apply to something that the company clearly doesn't have the technical skill or financial means to pull of. The Mars One mission is an excellent example. SpaceX has already flown multiple missions to the ISS and has demoed soft-landing their first stage under power. This may not work 100% right now, but there's every reason to believe that SpaceX has the technical skill, the financing, and the will to make it work.

InclinedPlane 12y ago

Pretty far along. They have an in process application with the FAA for running tests on a "DragonFly" vehicle which is basically a Dragon 2 capsule designed for testing the landing system (which, according to the permit) they plan to do a lot of tests on. Also, they will test the in flight abort system in two separate unmanned tests this year. One on the launch pad and another with a full scale launch with the escape system activating at Max-Q (maximum dynamic pressure on the rocket, the most extreme test possible for the system). Many of the components share engineering heritage with the unmanned cargo Dragon such as the pressure hull, heat shield, RCS thrusters, and so on. Nobody outside SpaceX would know how far along they are in terms of every single component and with integration but every indication is that they are quite far along indeed and most of what they need to do at this point is validate their design through testing and eventually operational flights.

manicdee 12y ago

They've been testing the superdraco rockets for a while, and there was a pad abort test scheduled for December 2013, I don't know whether that actually happened. There was an in-flight abort test scheduled for April 2014, again I don't know if that actually happened.

Karellen 12y ago
They put out a press release[0] a couple of days ago about having completed "qualification testing" of the SuperDracos. Also "The pad abort will be the first test of SpaceX’s new launch escape system and is currently expected to take place later this year." [0] http://www.spacex.com/press/2014/05/27/spacex-completes-qualification-testing-superdraco-thruster http://www.spacex.com/press/2014/05/27/spacex-completes-qual...

jccooper 12y ago

They say it's "actual flight design hardware". Probably not quite ready to chuck at the ISS, but all the pieces are there. The main differences from the already-operational Dragon seem to be: - improved heat shield (presumably a minor iteration) - docking hardware (OTS) - Super-Draco thrusters (recently flight-qualified) - seats (apparently extant) - piloting controls (apparently extant, may require additional software) - life support system (?) - software for propulsive landing (will require testing, but they can already do it for a 10-story F9) - software for autonomous docking (unknown, but if Soyuz can do it, so can SpaceX) Most of the hardware seems to be ready to go; the software may not be, but that can be done a lot faster than hardware, and nothing here is beyond their already-demonstrated abilities. There is certainly plenty of testing to be done on the novel things like launch abort and propulsive landing (much of which is already scheduled!), as well as on-orbit tryout of a few things. But it looks like it's pretty far along, and I bet we'll see it in space within 12 months.

ak217 12y ago

The guy has a track record of making his designs survive encounters with reality...